On Monday, I put out a post on what markets will do when we get a peace deal that - critically - reopens the Strait of Hormuz. At the time, the front-month futures price for Brent was around $100 and I said we’d go to $85 in fairly short order. We’re now around $90, so we’re well on our way towards that target. Beneath all this lies a bigger question on what constitutes “normalization.” After all, even under the best of circumstances, it’ll take time to get tanker traffic through the Strait back to normal and - in reality - it’s likely that Iran’s hard liners will attempt to sabotage a peace deal, including by ... (full story)