How Quickly Will Oil Normalize? | Forex Factory

  • How Quickly Will Oil Normalize?

    From robinjbrooks.substack.com

    On Monday, I put out a post on what markets will do when we get a peace deal that - critically - reopens the Strait of Hormuz. At the time, the front-month futures price for Brent was around $100 and I said we’d go to $85 in fairly short order. We’re now around $90, so we’re well on our way towards that target. Beneath all this lies a bigger question on what constitutes “normalization.” After all, even under the best of circumstances, it’ll take time to get tanker traffic through the Strait back to normal and - in reality - it’s likely that Iran’s hard liners will attempt to sabotage a peace deal, ... (full story)

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apelikeman
May 31, 2026 12:37pm
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Interesting analysis, but I don't buy it. There's been no decrease in demand and the only reason prices aren't higher is because of the drawdowns of reserves. We're only marginally closer to a peace deal. If traffic starts flowing tomorrow at normal levels through the strait there's still a lag time of four to six weeks for delivery. I'm not an expert, but something doesn't seem right.
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Trader#4A71
May 31, 2026 7:42am
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Im sorry to say there wont be a deal. Iran wants to emerge stronger as a mean to punish the invaders and they have nothing to lose. America is under huge stress to finish the war and not worsen it further. So Iran will demand all they wanted and is ready to not have any deal. But America need a deal to finish the war and declare victory.

So maybe someone can propose something that can work??? To me nothing. You asked a broken person to have a deal with you when you are the one who break them in the first place, its not going to be easy. And worse you do not want to pay any price and wants the broken party to pay further price? Im afraid its not looking good and the effects is going to amplify soon. But I still hope for miracle, and we need one now!
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Trader#21E3
May 30, 2026 10:24pm
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we all know full well, market can flip back to $160 a barrel. At this stage, everything is uncertain.
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