NFP Preview: Rate Path Divergence & Implications for the DXY, Gold (XAU/USD) | Forex Factory

  • NFP Preview: Rate Path Divergence & Implications for the DXY, Gold (XAU/USD)

    From marketpulse.com

    The Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, which comes out on December 16, 2025, is the first full look at the US job market since September, and it will be a crucial factor in determining the Federal Reserve's (Fed) strategy for interest rates throughout 2026. This jobs data will either prove that the Fed was right to implement the controversial rate cuts of 75 basis points since September, or it will suggest that the central bank was too aggressive in cutting rates. The report is complicated because it includes both October and November job numbers and is slightly skewed by issues like the recent government shutdown and ... (full story)

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ZforexCM
Dec 16, 2025 1:34am
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The dollar index held near 98.4 after three weeks of declines, with attention on delayed US data releases covering payrolls, retail sales, and inflation. The Fed’s latest move came with a more restrained tone, and contrasting signals from policymakers continue to shape expectations for the next phase of policy adjustments.

Gold traded around $4,320 per ounce, moving closer to record highs as a dense US data lineup shapes expectations around the Fed’s rate trajectory. Focus centers on Tuesday’s jobs report and Thursday’s inflation release. Last week’s Fed decision marked a third 25-bp cut this year, though the vote was split, with three policymakers opposing the move.

Two dissenting officials said on Friday that inflation remains elevated and argued for waiting on additional data. Even so, gold is up more than 60% year-todate, positioning it for its strongest annual performance since 1979, supported by central-bank buying, ETF inflows, rising demand for defensive assets, and reduced appetite for sovereign bonds and currencies.

Technically, support near $4270, while resistance is around $4380.

R1: 4380 | S1: 4270
R2: 4450 | S2: 4230
R3: 4500 | S3: 4195
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gold-slips-below-4300-before-us-data-4986.png Size: 35 KB
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januszo
Dec 16, 2025 5:47am
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ok,
jpy stays
usd raise
btc falls - until usd collapse times ..
Trader#9DE5
Dec 15, 2025 11:41pm
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gold is bullish
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