USDJPY Forecast

As a day trader, I am primarily buying above the 156.501 level, at the sell level the price is at an oversold level, I would like your opinion on this forecast, thank you.

On daily basis, the chart shows an up trend channel line, but fundamental factors may impact in the following days, including speech from BoJ government Ueda on Monday which may provide guidance on interest rate. Meanwhile, exchange rate of 160.00 is assumed to be a trigger line of possible intervention for fixing by BoJ, including open market operations, or bluffs from MoF. However, considering past interventions, the rate is likely to rebound from 200 days moving average to levels before intervention for carry trade motivations. The floor of the channel line will be a guidance at time frame of day to pressure the rate go upward, unless any disturbance of counter trend may interfere. Policy rate announcement by BoJ is scheduled for December 19, which may be a counter trend event, but not guaranteed for weakness resulted by fiscal easing policy, and tax cut decisions. The leading federal fund rate of US above Japan will continue to be the factor of carry trade in favor of rate to rise, until the rate will be near even, and the fiscal easing policy of Japan terminated.