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Navigating in the Dark: Using High-Frequency Private Data to Track the Labor Market
In times of government shutdowns, the flow of critical economic data often comes to a halt, leaving policymakers, researchers and the public in the dark about labor market conditions. This information blackout creates particularly acute challenges for the Federal Reserve, which now finds itself at a pivotal juncture in its monetary policy trajectory. The central bank’s decision on whether to continue its current path of easing interest rates or to pause its rate-cutting cycle hinges crucially on labor market indicators—precisely the data that become unavailable during a shutdown.1 However, the advent of ... (full story)
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Nov 7, 2025 4:46pm
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The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today released the October 2025 Survey of Consumer Expectations, which shows that households’ inflation expectations decreased at the short-term horizon and remained unchanged at the medium- and longer-term horizons. Unemployment rate and job finding expectations worsened, while job loss expectations slightly improved. Spending and household income growth expectations remained largely unchanged. Perceptions and expectations about credit availability improved, but respondents were somewhat less optimistic about their future household financial situation. The survey was fielded from October 1 through October 31, 2025. The main findings from the October 2025 Survey are: Inflation Median inflation expectations decreased by 0.2 percentage point to 3.2% at the one-year-ahead horizon in October. They were unchanged at the three-year- (3.0%) and five-year-ahead (3.0%) horizons. The survey’s measure of disagreement across respondents (the difference between the 75th and 25th percentiles of inflation expectations) increased at all horizons. US NY Fed 1-Year Inflation Expectations Oct: 3.2% (prev 3.4%) - 3-Year Inflation Expectations: 3.0% (prev 3.0%) - 5-Year Inflation Expectations: 3.0% (prev 3.0%) NY FED: OCTOBER EXPECTATION OF FUTURE FINANCIAL SITUATION DECLINED
Did you know that entire economies still run on cash, pretty much day to day? This infographic ranks 123 countries by the share of daily transactions completed with physical banknotes and coins, spotlighting where cash is still king, and where it’s becoming a relic. The data for this visualization comes from Forex.se. Poverty and Limited Banking Fuel Cash ...
From monetamarkets.com | Nov 7, 2025
The U.S. Dollar regained footing on Friday after a volatile week, buoyed by firm U.S. yields and renewed caution following weak Chinese trade data. Market participants digested a narrowing in China’s October trade surplus — a sign of slowing global demand — which pressured risk-linked currencies like the AUD and NZD. Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen retreated ...
