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  • FOMC Minutes: 'Disappointing' Inflation Readings in First Quarter, Discuss Holding Rates Steady For Longer if Inflation Doesn't Fall

Added at 2:01pm

  • Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee April 30–May 1, 2024

    From federalreserve.gov

    Developments in Financial Markets and Open Market Operations The manager turned first to a review of developments in financial markets. Domestic data releases over the intermeeting period pointed to inflation being more persistent than previously expected and to a generally resilient economy. Policy expectations shifted materially in response. The policy rate path derived from futures prices implied fewer than two 25 basis point rate cuts by yearend. The modal path based on options prices was quite flat, suggesting at most one such rate cut in 2024. The median of the modal paths of the federal funds rate obtained ... (full story)

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  •  Guest
  • | IP XXX.XXX.74.168
wtf
gold down. dollar strong, oil cheap Biden wins
Summary of the FOMC Meeting Minutes on Interest Rates and Market Impact

Interest Rates and Inflation Outlook
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) noted that inflation remains persistent and higher than previously expected.
The expectation for policy rate cuts by the end of 2024 has shifted, with fewer rate cuts anticipated.
Treasury yields rose significantly, driven by higher inflation compensation and expected increases in the real policy rate.
Short-term inflation expectations have risen, but long-term expectations remain well anchored.
The committee decided to maintain the federal funds rate at 5.25% to 5.5%.
Balance sheet reduction will continue, but the pace will slow, with the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities reduced from $60 billion to $25 billion starting in June.

Economic and Financial Market Conditions
The U.S. economy remains resilient with strong labor market conditions and robust GDP growth, though it has slowed compared to late 2023.
Equity prices fell due to higher interest rates, though solid earnings reports provided some support.
The dollar strengthened, partly due to expectations that other central banks will ease policies before the Federal Reserve.
Financial conditions tightened overall, influenced by higher yields, lower equity prices, and a stronger dollar.

Market Sentiment
Broad equity prices declined over the period, reflecting the pressure of higher interest rates on valuations.
The economic outlook remains uncertain with risks tilted to the downside due to potential geopolitical events and tighter financial conditions.
The FOMC is highly attentive to inflation risks and remains committed to returning inflation to the 2% target.
Market Impact: Bullish or Bearish?

Bullish Indicators
Strong labor market conditions and robust economic activity.
Solid earnings reports supporting equity markets.
Well-anchored long-term inflation expectations.

Bearish Indicators
Persistent inflation leading to higher-than-expected interest rates.
Rising Treasury yields and tightening financial conditions.
Broad equity price declines.
Uncertainty in the economic outlook and potential geopolitical risks.

Overall Market Sentiment
The FOMC's stance is cautious and reflects a commitment to addressing inflation, which could be seen as bearish for the market due to the persistence of high interest rates and tightening financial conditions. However, the strong economic fundamentals and labor market could mitigate some of these bearish pressures. Therefore, the overall market sentiment leans bearish, with concerns over persistent inflation and high interest rates outweighing the positive aspects of economic resilience.
Focus, Patience, Determination & Order in chaos
Interesting, quite hawkish here. Let's see how tomorrow London open traders will react to this. Too low LiQ right now for the moves to matter.
  •  Guest
  • | IP XXX.XXX.106.183
all we need is nvidia earnings miss in a couple of hours time and we'll be back to nasdaq 16600ish
Quoting Guest
all we need is nvidia earnings miss in a couple of hours time and we'll be back to nasdaq 16600ish
Wouldn't go that far but NQ can see 18000 in a flash
FED Hawkish note holding for long term until inflation is down to 2%. I think USD/JPY will start rallying again for a long and is expected to psychologically toward 170 and Gold toward 1800 if breaks down 2300
Set for long position
No big movement in gold still waiting what to do guys
I tried to predict this move down in time, my date was the 17th/18th May 2024, so 4-5 days late on a cycle of 291 days is not bad. I think this will be the start of a much bigger fall
Quoting Ragothaman
No big movement in gold still waiting what to do guys
Looks like a strong bearish movement now...
Quoting Ftmofx
FED Hawkish note holding for long term until inflation is down to 2%. I think USD/JPY will start rallying again for a long and is expected to psychologically toward 170 and Gold toward 1800 if breaks down 2300
Not a chance gold going back to 1800, not with what's happening with US long term
Quoting Ftmofx
FED Hawkish note holding for long term until inflation is down to 2%. I think USD/JPY will start rallying again for a long and is expected to psychologically toward 170 and Gold toward 1800 if breaks down 2300
your predictions are most of the time, I wonder if you have ever been a profitable trader at all.
  •  Guest
  • | IP XXX.XX.217.150
Quoting Ragothaman
No big movement in gold still waiting what to do guys
staying out of the market now is the best
Quoting Ftmofx
FED Hawkish note holding for long term until inflation is down to 2%. I think USD/JPY will start rallying again for a long and is expected to psychologically toward 170 and Gold toward 1800 if breaks down 2300
Nope, it's just a question of time the greenback will give up it gains very soon.
Quoting rehmatkhan00
{quote} your predictions are most of the time, I wonder if you have ever been a profitable trader at all.
For you
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Quoting Ftmofx
{quote} For you {image} {image} {image} {image}
Excellent come back, well done.
Quoting Ftmofx
{quote} For you {image} {image} {image} {image}
Ouch.
Quoting Vancarbon
So the market didn’t even consider this narrative?
It's a bull market, old turkey. Hope you loaded up on NVDA...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
First cut: December!
Fortis Fortuna Adiuvat...
Quoting Vancarbon
{quote} Nvda has put 25% on SP alone. Whooooaaa!
Ikr? I rarely trade anything but the SnP's, but I have to watch NVDA and a few other hogs that dominate the index. The hype reminds me of MSFT, APPL et al, 25 yrs ago...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
Quoting Ftmofx
{quote} For you {image} {image} {image} {image}
MashAllah your result seems to be impressive but whatever you say here, a complete opposite things happen lolzzz
Well, NVDA earnings did not blow out the spoos. Had little effect. We'll see what tomorrow brings, but kin of looking like a fizzle.

Invidia, though, is in a sweet spot, as long as the AI mania lives - they just sell the chips, not the dream.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
Quoting The Fool
Well, NVDA earnings did not blow out the spoos. Had little effect. We'll see what tomorrow brings, but kin of looking like a fizzle. Invidia, though, is in a sweet spot, as long as the AI mania lives - they just sell the chips, not the dream.
you trade options so you should know good earnings at the highs means price will prolly fall LOL
TDS is a beautiful thing Halbot
We here are all have or at least used to have the habit of translate news or data came out to fit own narrative or what led to such price reaction to news. But what is forgotten was the fact that market runs on the expectation of the future economic condition through incoming news and data.
In my view, this Minutes is old cause the Fed officials had been talking all the same ever since their last meeting. So the bulls had already taking profit since the CPI last week which met their expectation and better to figure out what will the NFP and CPI of the next month be like. To remind that Fed said they need to see at least 3 ticks down before they can really begin to cut.
Quoting PushnPull
We here are all have or at least used to have the habit of translate news or data came out to fit own narrative or what led to such price reaction to news. But what is forgotten was the fact that market runs on the expectation of the future economic condition through incoming news and data. In my view, this Minutes is old cause the Fed officials had been talking all the same ever since their last meeting. So the bulls had already taking profit since the CPI last week which met their expectation and better to figure out what will the NFP and CPI...
Agreed to the "old news" commentary. In addition, FED reactions to all of the data since the meeting has been communicated ad nauseam. The minutes can serve to offer insight in lieu of such Intel, but, here, we simply saw some playful market banter in an attempt to inject a miniscule amount of volatility. Obviously, it pretty much failed by the end of the day. Then, NVDA's beat offered a further boost.
Quoting The Fool
Well, NVDA earnings did not blow out the spoos. Had little effect. We'll see what tomorrow brings, but kin of looking like a fizzle. Invidia, though, is in a sweet spot, as long as the AI mania lives - they just sell the chips, not the dream.
It certainly wasn't a 20% pop like some other companies, but when you are the third largest company by market cap AND already near all time highs, a 5% up move is pretty decent.

I agree that tomorrow will tell us how this news is actually digested, but for now, the /nq can say "thank you" to the extra valuation via new ATHs.
nothing improvement ..... still dovish .... buying USD only for retracement (with FED intervention). may be FED better increase rates more for inflation target of 2% amidst uncertain global conditions
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so market make price manipulation , buy rumor from "DOVISH FOMC"
Follow price direction
Quoting ffghost
{quote} Agreed to the "old news" commentary. In addition, FED reactions to all of the data since the meeting has been communicated ad nauseam. The minutes can serve to offer insight in lieu of such Intel, but, here, we simply saw some playful market banter in an attempt to inject a miniscule amount of volatility. Obviously, it pretty much failed by the end of the day. Then, NVDA's beat offered a further boost.
I'm also in favor of the bulls (for now). NVDA came out good, but imho, not so much to drive fx market hype as expected. Though stocks is not my focus, take a look at NVDA's chart, their earning is not enough power to boost its pass last high level. Wish you best.
Quoting Zebi2
{quote} you trade options so you should know good earnings at the highs means price will prolly fall LOL
not so sure about that. Tastytrade has studies that show, typically, upmoves on strong earnings are usually followed by more uptrend. I would not bet against NVDA, but how well its strength translates into the broader market will be questionable going forward, imho.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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