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  • ADP: Private Sector Employment Increased by 192,000 Jobs in April; Annual Pay was Up 5.0%

    From prnewswire.com

    Private sector employment increased by 192,000 jobs in April and annual pay was up 5.0 percent year-over-year, according to the April ADP® National Employment Report™ produced by the ADP Research Institute® in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab ("Stanford Lab"). The ADP National Employment Report is an independent measure and high-frequency view of the private-sector labor market based on actual, anonymized payroll data of more than 25 million U.S. employees. The jobs report and pay insights use ADP's fine-grained anonymized and aggregated payroll data to provide a representative picture of ... (full story)

Pretty lame volatility on that one.
Invest in alarm clocks
h.. the last one revised up. Interesting.
not much volaitity
Strong.


Goods-producing: +47,000 jobs.

Service-providing: +145,000 jobs.

Notable increases were in Leisure/Hospitality (+56,000) and Professional/Business services (+22,000).

Job-changers saw a +9.3% annual pay increase while job-stayers saw a +5.0% annual pay increase.
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live Return This Year: 54.4%
Quoting Ferna
Price action dead or what.. we need floor trading back.
1st of the month. Insane end-of month dump in the last 10 minutes yesterday. FOMC later today. Add to that the fact that the ADP numbers are averaging something like 25% off estimates (and often even further after revisions) over the past 12 months and perhaps the market is saying "let's wait for a few minutes today"? Coupled with the disparity between ADP and NFP, I don't know...
What DOESN'T seem to line up, though, are the consumer confidence numbers from yesterday and the bullets EventsTrader pulled from this ADP report. If wages are up (and higher than inflation), and jobs are being added (i.e. people not having to look for work), why did the confidence drop to the lowest in 2 years? *scratches head*
Quoting Ferna
{quote} Cause America learn from Sweden, that if your numbers don’t look good you change the way you measure. And you implement inclusiveness and disqualification criteria. This is how you can have 20% unemployed but report it as 5%. Throw the 15% into some other basket.
That's called mental gymnastics 101.
The solution is (x).
Quoting ffghost
What DOESN'T seem to line up, though, are the consumer confidence numbers from yesterday and the bullets EventsTrader pulled from this ADP report. If wages are up (and higher than inflation), and jobs are being added (i.e. people not having to look for work), why did the confidence drop to the lowest in 2 years? *scratches head*
Agreed. Lots of imbalances.
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live Return This Year: 54.4%
Yes....BUT.....you also have to then assume that the people making decisions about rate cuts, "FED" (and, more importantly, the people making decisions about the people who make decisions about rate cuts...aka "the market") are looking at deeper data vs simply taking the top line. I am not sure how deep one party goes vs. the other. And by not sure, I mean I have not idea. I hope there is some 'under the hood' consideration. We can speculate all we want, but at the end of the day, I suppose all that matters is the tape action. I would have been nice for some equity follow through from yesterday though. But as all major indices were bumping into their 20 and 50 day MA (acting as resistance), a pullback wasn't too surprising....though the magnitude/velocity was (to me at least)

.....August 24th, 2023 all over again (20 crossed the 50 day MA and a touch of the 20 cause a sizable drop). History repeats itself? I am hoping so. A replication of the rally into 9/1/23 levels would be very much appreciated! Everyone start changing with me: "Let's go Powell, Let's go!" ***Of course, all this is to say we are no doubt in for a sizable drop this time around, right?!?***
Quoting Ferna
{quote} That’s how it is. Imagine this: You have 50000 people, they all get poor and have to get a 2nd job so 50000 people does work for 100 000 people. They report this as number of employed people are increasing, even due it’s the same people(!). Or: Unemployment claims doesn’t go up, cause they implemented new criteria to disqualify people to be eligible for such claims. There could be a huge unrecorded number. So you got to know the institutions and how they work and measure. For example homelessness, layoffs, increased burnout...
Agreed 10000%

Once you start playing with the data and start omitting certain stuff it's a set-up for a rouse in my eyes.

The thing is you can't keep lying with your data while we are witnessing cracks all across the board eventually you'll wake up and realize something isn't quite right with what they're selling here.

The problem is the majority are dealing with real life issues and practically live check to check so it's hard for a person like that to objectively see the house of cards coming down around them.

We've been seeing this coming into fruition with the rising credit card debt, people struggling making car/rent/house payments, savings have been dwindling, only purchasing essentials and necessities at this point. Their propensity to save has been going downwards while their expenses of everything have been rising tenfold.

Though our politicians and FEDS for some reason keep saying how resilient the American public has been which is such a farce.
The solution is (x).
That pay increase is mostly going out to execs, top management, ceos etc. For common people it has actually been going down since the layoffs started around the end of 2022
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