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  • Employment Cost Index – March 2024

    From bls.gov

    Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 1.2 percent, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending in March 2024, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Wages and salaries increased 1.1 percent and benefit costs increased 1.1 percent from December 2023. (See tables A, 1, 2, and 3.) Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 4.2 percent for the 12-month period ending in March 2024 and increased 4.8 percent in March 2023. Wages and salaries increased 4.4 percent for the 12-month period ending in March 2024 and increased 5.0 percent for the 12-month period ending in March 2023. Benefit ... (full story)

Added at 8:48am

  • US Employment Cost Index rises 1.2% in Q1 vs. 1% expected

    From fxstreet.com

    The Employment Cost Index in the US rose 1.2% in the first quarter, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Tuesday. This reading followed the 0.9% increase recorded in the last quarter of 2023 and came in above the market expectation of 1%. "Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 4.2% for the 12-month period ending in March 2024 and increased 4.8% in March 2023," the BLS said in the press release. "Wages and salaries increased 4.4% for the 12-month period ending in March 2024 and increased 5.0% for the 12-month period ending in March 2023." The US Dollar gathered strength against its rivals ... (full story)

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Compensation costs increasing across all categories. The real increases, although smaller due to inflation adjustments, indicate that wage growth is slightly outpacing inflation, particularly for state and local government employees.

Benefit costs are rising but at a slower pace in real terms, reflecting the increasing cost pressures associated with health benefits and other employee benefits.
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live Return This Year: na
Quoting EventsTrader
Hot Compensation costs increasing across all categories. The real increases, although smaller due to inflation adjustments, indicate that wage growth is slightly outpacing inflation, particularly for state and local government employees. Benefit costs are rising but at a slower pace in real terms, reflecting the increasing cost pressures associated with health benefits and other employee benefits.
Wage spiral!!
Break the cake
Quoting Rich.C
{quote} Wage spiral!!
I wouldn't say we're experiencing a wage spiral. The thing the Fed is most afraid of. But it doesn't look like the Fed can't bring down inflation further (from the levels we're at), at least anytime soon.

There's no justification for the rate cut narrative at this time.
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live Return This Year: na
Quoting EventsTrader
{quote} I wouldn't say we're experiencing a wage spiral. The thing the Fed is most afraid of. But it doesn't look like the Fed can't bring down inflation further (from the levels we're at), at least anytime soon. There's no justification for the rate cut narrative at this time.
June, rates stay flat... July however, not so sure we can say yet "Data dependant". There are risks of a wage-price spiral, it’s unlikely to lead to a recession in the near term...

Wage growth vs. inflation: According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, the difference between wage growth and inflation in the US from March 2020 to March 2024 is significant. While wages have grown by an average of 5.2% per year, inflation has increased by an average of 3.4% per year.

Minimum wage increases: In 2024, 22 states increased their minimum wage, with some states having hourly rates that match or exceed $15 per hour.

Salary increase projections: According to a recent article, US companies are anticipating a 3.8% pay increase on average in 2024. While this is lower than the 4.1% increase planned for 2023, it still indicates a competitive market for labour.

Salary increase budgets: Despite deceleration, most CFOs still plan to offer competitive pay bumps in 2024. Salary increase budgets in 2023 reached their highest level in 20 years, and employers are planning to stay fairly aggressive on pay going into next year.

It’s worth noting that the US economy has experienced a wage-price spiral in the past without entering a recession.

Overall, the US wage spiral in 2024 is characterized by strong wage growth, moderate inflation, and competitive salary increase budgets.
Break the cake
what does news mean now, what will be price of gold in next hours or days, up or down?
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dow futures gapped down around 60 points on this news, nasdaq still diving, gold falling, so I guess USD is best place to be.
Quoting zohaib.2001
what does news mean now, what will be price of gold in next hours or days, up or down?
Keep tabs on news about Israel, Ukraine, China etc. for Gold
Break the cake
If Israel go into Rafah watch oil fly , gold fly and equities tank .

It's on hold now due to the US negotiating between the two sides for hostage release . If this fails then watch for a similar scenario as last time with Iran involved .
In this way how did the will reach to inflation target favorite employment gauge indicate inflation in future
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