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  • Yen Dumps before It Jumps

    From marctomarket.com

    The FOMC meeting, the US employment report, and eurozone CPI were to be the highlights of the week, but the Japanese yen stole the march to start the week. The dollar soared to almost JPY160.20 before falling sharply to JPY154.55 and then rebounding to almost JPY156.00. Intervention has not been confirmed and BOJ data will not cover it until next month. On balance, it appears that most think it was algo-trading in thin markets given the Japanese holiday. The dollar weakened against the other major currencies, and although it is still lower on the day, the downside momentum may have stalled. Emerging market currencies ... (full story)

We still going to 170. Fundamentals don't lie. This was disorderly move, so they have react, but we slowly climb into 170-180 area.
I don't think it was intervention and I also think this will push big money to just further push the price back upwards in my opinion.
The solution is (x).
Intervention rumour: https://www.wsj.com/world/asia/japan...ts_pos2&page=1
Break the cake
maybe yen is getting into some discount zone at 150 UJ . so letss see how it plays
Quoting Rich.C
Intervention rumour: https://www.wsj.com/world/asia/japan...ts_pos2&page=1
I'm looking at it as just that a rumor. I would like to see how the daily candle ends for a lot of these yen pairs.
The solution is (x).
Quoting Ferna
{quote} Which parameters for you would confirm it wasn’t just a rumor? Or it takes the IMF quarterly report 3 months later?
See that's the thing I'm not going to lie it would be hard for me to quantify a parameter for that unless they verbally said they did but we wouldn't find out for months anyway.

The move in my opinion feels more like a sideswipe from hitting a certain level and potentially triggering a slew of SELL orders obviously I'm speculating with my opinion as well.

If the weekly closes below a 154.624 I'm more inclined to believe it was an intervention. Hopefully that makes some sense.
The solution is (x).
Quoting Ferna
{quote} Well if i were BoJ, i’d send a few warnings to the market. If they still didn’t listen it’s their own fault. I think it’s more efficient psychologically to play these games with mixed feelings stirring up confusion and uncertainty rather than just spending sacks of money to keep yen up. This what central bankers said: they want the market to do the job for them. I be honest and say i caught the first intervention in October, but the other were mostly after the fact and in smaller magnitude. I haven’t been able to predict them, but i think...
See that's the thing I feel like 2 years ago it was a better situation for differentials and what not. My thing is even if they intervene how long can they truly keep it down with their policy disconnect vs other developed economies?

Obviously they could crash it back lower but how much truly? They're benefitting from tourism and exports with the cheaper yen. I think policy wise there is too much of a difference for a currency intervention to have a LONG LASTING EFFECT.

What's more alarming for me big picture wise is after 160 truly gets broken in the future looking at past price action from 1985 - 1988 we went from 252 as low as 121.

From the start of 2020 to 2024 we went from 108 as high as 160. Technically speaking this move could reset lower obviously and just be ready to take on the next bullish leg forward which I don't see major price levels in resistance after the 160 mark.
The solution is (x).
Quoting Ferna
{quote} Well if i were BoJ, i’d send a few warnings to the market. If they still didn’t listen it’s their own fault. I think it’s more efficient psychologically to play these games with mixed feelings stirring up confusion and uncertainty rather than just spending sacks of money to keep yen up. This what central bankers said: they want the market to do the job for them. I be honest and say i caught the first intervention in October, but the other were mostly after the fact and in smaller magnitude. I haven’t been able to predict them, but i think...
Yes, it is really weird and hidden what they are doing. JPY is always crazy. Sometimes very easy like today and sometimes I get grey hairs. I wonder if they sometimes also don't know what they are doing or throw a dice to make people crazy.
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