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  • Consumer Price Index - March 2024

    From bls.gov

    The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent in March on a seasonally adjusted basis, the same increase as in February, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.5 percent before seasonal adjustment. The index for shelter rose in March, as did the index for gasoline. Combined, these two indexes contributed over half of the monthly increase in the index for all items. The energy index rose 1.1 percent over the month. The food index rose 0.1 percent in March. The food at home index was unchanged, while the food away ... (full story)

Added at 8:35am

  • Consumer prices rose 3.5% from a year ago in March, more than expected

    From cnbc.com

    The consumer price index increased at a faster than expected pace in March, indicating that inflation is staying stubbornly higher and likely keeping the Federal Reserve on hold with interest rates. The CPI, a broad measure of goods and services costs across the economy, rose 0.4% for the month, putting the 12-month inflation rate at 3.5%. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for a 0.3% gain and a 3.4% year-over-year level. Excluding volatile food and energy components, core CPI also accelerated 0.4% on a monthly basis while rising 3.8% from a year ago, compared to respective estimates for 0.3% and 3.7%. ... (full story)

  • #1
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  • Apr 10, 2024 8:31am Apr 10, 2024 8:31am
  •  Trader#FD40
  • | Status: Unregistered Trader
Crazy
  • #2
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  • Apr 10, 2024 8:32am Apr 10, 2024 8:32am
Ohhh so very hot........Those rate cuts are dwindling faster and faster.
The solution is (x).
  • #3
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  • Apr 10, 2024 8:33am Apr 10, 2024 8:33am
  •  Trader#760C
  • | Status: Unregistered Trader
America... F*ck yea!
  • #4
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  • Apr 10, 2024 8:33am Apr 10, 2024 8:33am
  •  Trader#08F5
  • | Status: Unregistered Trader
Raise the rates to 9%
  • #5
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  • Apr 10, 2024 8:36am Apr 10, 2024 8:36am
Well done FED, 2 months data hot and increase
  • #6
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  • Apr 10, 2024 8:37am Apr 10, 2024 8:37am
USD just whipped out its big D
  • #7
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  • Apr 10, 2024 8:38am Apr 10, 2024 8:38am
Quoting Momofrmnyc
Ohhh so very hot........Those rate cuts are dwindling faster and faster.
I think the probability of further interest rate hikes is also increasing. Core CPI is converging far away fro 2%.
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  • #8
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  • Apr 10, 2024 8:38am Apr 10, 2024 8:38am
Inflation is out of........ you know how it goes.
  • #9
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  • Apr 10, 2024 8:38am Apr 10, 2024 8:38am
Pretty much a no brainer right. Look at commodities.
  • #10
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  • Apr 10, 2024 8:42am Apr 10, 2024 8:42am
Very hot.

Takeaways:

CPI m/m was 0.378% and core CPI m/m was 0.359%. Both rounded up to 0.4%. Market was expecting low 0.3s.

Core CPI y/y came in at 3.8%

The index for shelter rose in March, as did the index for gasoline. These two indexes contributed over half of the monthly increase in the index for all items.

The shelter index has risen significantly over the past year, increasing by 5.7%.

The energy index rose 1.1% in March. Gasoline prices rose 6.4% in March

The food index increased by 0.1% with the food at home index unchanged. The index for food away from home increased by 0.3%. Food prices y/y increased 3.5%.

Transportation services rose notably by 1.5%.

Natural gas decreased 3.2% y/y.
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live All Time Return: 54.4%
  • #11
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  • Apr 10, 2024 8:43am Apr 10, 2024 8:43am
Thank Bidenomics
  • #12
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  • Apr 10, 2024 8:57am Apr 10, 2024 8:57am
Gold reversed upwards
  • #13
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  • Apr 10, 2024 9:05am Apr 10, 2024 9:05am
Lets wait for BOJ, they love going short lol
  • #14
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  • Apr 10, 2024 9:13am Apr 10, 2024 9:13am
does suzuki keep watching that moves?
  • #15
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  • Apr 10, 2024 9:21am Apr 10, 2024 9:21am
Suzuki ---- got Punctured-----
  • #16
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  • Apr 10, 2024 9:26am Apr 10, 2024 9:26am
Dissent. Coming to a Fed near you.

Last Friday, FOMC Gov Bowman said this: It is possible the Fed may have to hike again to cool inflation.

Market is currently pricing in a Sept and Dec rate cut. Wishful thinking?
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live All Time Return: 54.4%
  • #17
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  • Apr 10, 2024 9:38am Apr 10, 2024 9:38am
  •  Trader#935E
  • | Status: Unregistered Trader
Quoting EventsTrader
Dissent. Coming to a Fed near you. Last Friday, FOMC Gov Bowman said this: It is possible the Fed may have to hike again to cool inflation. Market is currently pricing in a Sept and Dec rate cut. Wishful thinking?
The Fed can continue to tell us all how they are not political, but there is no one at the Fed wants the orange man back in the fray. They have to cut, and if they don’t, there could be a very heavy political price to pay. They are in a corner.
  • #18
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  • Apr 10, 2024 9:53am Apr 10, 2024 9:53am
  •  Trader#69BD
  • | Status: Unregistered Trader
Quoting EventsTrader
Dissent. Coming to a Fed near you. Last Friday, FOMC Gov Bowman said this: It is possible the Fed may have to hike again to cool inflation. Market is currently pricing in a Sept and Dec rate cut. Wishful thinking?
For my learning, where are you seeing cuts in Sept and Dec?
  • #19
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  • Apr 10, 2024 10:10am Apr 10, 2024 10:10am
  •  Trader#78AE
  • | Status: Unregistered Trader
Honestly this all feels like 08 all over again but far worse.
  • #20
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  • Apr 10, 2024 10:12am Apr 10, 2024 10:12am
There WILL NOT BE any rates cut this year... Get ready for BOJ intervention boys!
  • #21
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  • Apr 10, 2024 10:19am Apr 10, 2024 10:19am
Buy gold!! Don't be stupid, can't you read the cards? and charts! Back at the price before cpi.
  • #22
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  • Apr 10, 2024 10:30am Apr 10, 2024 10:30am
This new's notis hit hard-
  • #23
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  • Apr 10, 2024 10:35am Apr 10, 2024 10:35am
when USDJPY intervention? rate hike may happen
  • #24
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  • Apr 10, 2024 10:59am Apr 10, 2024 10:59am
  •  Trader#8433
  • | Status: Unregistered Trader
How come BOJ , MOF, all keeping quiet? Suzuki will usually say that he is closely watching the currency market but here UJ has gone way past 152!! Still no intervention??
  • #25
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  • Apr 10, 2024 11:11am Apr 10, 2024 11:11am
Quoting Guest
How come BOJ , MOF, all keeping quiet? Suzuki will usually say that he is closely watching the currency market but here UJ has gone way past 152!! Still no intervention??
It'll happen when they're ready to press the button.
The solution is (x).
  • #26
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  • Apr 10, 2024 11:13am Apr 10, 2024 11:13am
BOJ will go bankrupt
  • #27
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  • Apr 10, 2024 11:14am Apr 10, 2024 11:14am
Why the sudden drop in gold?
  • #28
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  • Apr 10, 2024 11:20am Apr 10, 2024 11:20am
Quoting Bakker
Why the sudden drop in gold?
High inflation = higher rates = higher yields, and higher yields usually demolish gold.

Gold will rebound tomorrow after PPI data, expect another 1% down potentially.

What the clown investors don't realise that gold is a hedge against inflation, but somehow they are buying the paper dollar... it's a weird dichotomy that will soon break.
  • #29
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  • Apr 10, 2024 11:24am Apr 10, 2024 11:24am
I guess it will climb back later today.
  • #30
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  • Edited 12:51pm Apr 10, 2024 12:39pm | Edited 12:51pm
Quoting Bakker
Why the sudden drop in gold?
My god..... retail struggle with this one.

Gold is like the short end. If rates are going up, why do you want gold?

If inflation is going up but rates not so... then, yes, buy gold.

To say: "inflation up == gold up" is to announce to the world that you only understand 2 parts of a 3 part dogma.

Rates up; gold down

Rates dn; gold up

Inflation up, rates up; who knows, but likely gold down short/medium term

inflation up, rates dn; gold up!

inflation flat, rates flat; who knows

inflation up, rates flat; gold up!

inflation dn, rates flat; gold dn (probably)!

do you see???

Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh, why is gambling such a filter for idiots!
  • #31
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  • Apr 10, 2024 12:44pm Apr 10, 2024 12:44pm
Quoting ww3361
{quote} My god..... retail struggle with this one. Gold is like the short end.
gold up with any combination of lies
deficit UP
#Say something verifiable by subsequent events
  • #32
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  • Apr 10, 2024 12:44pm Apr 10, 2024 12:44pm
Quoting MatTrader101
{quote} High inflation = higher rates = higher yields, and higher yields usually demolish gold. Gold will rebound tomorrow after PPI data, expect another 1% down potentially. What the clown investors don't realise that gold is a hedge against inflation, but somehow they are buying the paper dollar... it's a weird dichotomy that will soon break.
Gold is a hedge for unchecked inflation. A small yet huge difference: Like wearing much needed glasses, clearly.

If the market believes inflation will precipitate higher rates; then gold goes down (usually)... really simple stuff. Yet everytime, people come here and post "why is inflation higher but gold lower". WTF!!!
  • #33
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  • Apr 10, 2024 12:52pm Apr 10, 2024 12:52pm
Nothing is ever that simple in the market and there can always be numerous catalyst that help push a price further whether that's up or down.
The solution is (x).
  • #34
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  • Apr 10, 2024 12:56pm Apr 10, 2024 12:56pm
Quoting Momofrmnyc
Nothing is ever that simple in the market and there can always be numerous catalyst that help push a price further whether that's up or down.
Correct, well done. Market can always remain totally irrational. That alone trumps all else.

But... The macro axiomatic drivers of gold price remain as per my previous posts. To not know something so simple is weird.
  • #35
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  • Apr 10, 2024 1:03pm Apr 10, 2024 1:03pm
Quoting Guest
How come BOJ , MOF, all keeping quiet? Suzuki will usually say that he is closely watching the currency market but here UJ has gone way past 152!! Still no intervention??
Japan is buying dollars, going against dollar treasury yields, it's like trowing cash inside the fire.
After presidential election will be another story.
  • #36
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  • Apr 10, 2024 6:16pm Apr 10, 2024 6:16pm
Quoting Momofrmnyc
Nothing is ever that simple in the market and there can always be numerous catalyst that help push a price further whether that's up or down.
Wrong market is very simple, retailers just choose to make it complicated with bullshit indicators, following dumb advice from forex gurus.
  • #37
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  • Apr 10, 2024 6:29pm Apr 10, 2024 6:29pm
Quoting MatTrader101
{quote} Wrong market is very simple, retailers just choose to make it complicated with bullshit indicators, following dumb advice from forex gurus.
You should be a billionaire if that's the case.
The solution is (x).
  • #38
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  • Apr 11, 2024 1:18am Apr 11, 2024 1:18am
Quoting Momofrmnyc
{quote} You should be a billionaire if that's the case.
Literally one of the dumbest replies I've seen in my life.

You do realise that the market is controlled by large institutions and trillionaires who have access to data before it's released?
  • #39
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  • Apr 11, 2024 1:52am Apr 11, 2024 1:52am
Quoting Momofrmnyc
Nothing is ever that simple in the market and there can always be numerous catalyst that help push a price further whether that's up or down.
Unfortunately it is that easy you just have to do some reading and then some research.

Identify the factors that determine price well enough and then build a stat arb strategy around it. Many billionaires have been made doing exactly that. Many pitfalls along the way, of course. And you have correctly identified that prices can be totally irrational (the mere act of leveraged speculation creates a factor in and of itself [referred to in the industry as the "August factor"; have fun finding out why...google August 2007 stat arb]).

For example; maybe you could build a portfolio of instruments that revolve around the inflation_vs_rates factor? Something like gold vs STIR futures??? idk.. just guessing.

Alternatively, if you have a timeseries based math study (e.g. RSI, fibs, moving averages) that you are making a living off of... then fair enough... I'll leave you to it. But very odd to insist on being ignorant to all other market forces.
  • #40
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  • Apr 11, 2024 4:21am Apr 11, 2024 4:21am
Good for us dollar
  • #41
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  • Apr 11, 2024 7:25am Apr 11, 2024 7:25am
Quoting MatTrader101
{quote} High inflation = higher rates = higher yields, and higher yields usually demolish gold. Gold will rebound tomorrow after PPI data, expect another 1% down potentially. What the clown investors don't realise that gold is a hedge against inflation, but somehow they are buying the paper dollar... it's a weird dichotomy that will soon break.
Real talk same thing happened on Feb 13 Gold was bearish but on 14 Feb went back bullish
Gold is a hedge against the inflation after all this the dollar is gonna drop to the floor
Rra di chelete
  • #42
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  • Apr 11, 2024 7:33am Apr 11, 2024 7:33am
I trade only Gold and only watch for news events coming out, I have only three indicators on my charts and they're all mas and I'm happy as a pig in Palestine . . . no pun intended.
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