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  • RBNZ's Orr: Central Banks May Have To Hold Rates Higher Than Markets Expect

  • #1
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  • Feb 27, 2024 10:30pm Feb 27, 2024 10:30pm
Why still NZDUSD PAIR BEARISH???
  • #2
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  • Feb 27, 2024 10:59pm Feb 27, 2024 10:59pm
They gonna cut rate soon.
  • #3
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  • Feb 27, 2024 11:24pm Feb 27, 2024 11:24pm
May be
  • #4
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  • Feb 28, 2024 12:21am Feb 28, 2024 12:21am
Ok you 3, you're only gonna get this once so listen up.

Short version: NZD bearish bec the ANZ bank (who owns the Bank of New Zealand) put out a head fake circular to clients a week ago that the RBNZ would hike rates. Some mugs bought into it. It was never going to happen, the data from the previous month didn't support it (do your own homework, don't believe everything you read). Hiking rates would in fact have harmed the NZD housing market significantly.

Long version:
Don't EVER trade AUD or NZD long if the EUR/AUD or EUR/NZD crosses are bullish. You will have your rear end handed to you on a spike.

Market runs in 3 sessions, Asia (low volume), Europe kicks in around 7am Frankfurt time (they often stuff it up re direction so beware), London an hour later (London traders much more liquid, they tend to fix Frankfurt's mistakes if required), then the US joins the party at 7am US East Coast time at which point the market is then and only then fully liquid. Market requires liquidity to push price up, without it, price falls back or channels.

Here is a free download of an international time clock http://www.qlock.com/
Go to the "download" tab
Scroll down till you see this, download the free version then set up your international time clocks on your computer, you can choose up to 4
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  • #5
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  • Feb 28, 2024 12:25am Feb 28, 2024 12:25am
Quoting elanjaelani
They gonna cut rate soon.
See above
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  • #6
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  • Feb 28, 2024 12:25am Feb 28, 2024 12:25am
Quoting mkshoaib
May be
See above
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  • #7
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  • Feb 28, 2024 12:25am Feb 28, 2024 12:25am
Quoting GuideMe
Why still NZDUSD PAIR BEARISH???
See above
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  • #8
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  • Feb 28, 2024 12:55am Feb 28, 2024 12:55am
Quoting Jade Gate
Ok you 3, you're only gonna get this once so listen up. Short version: NZD bearish bec the ANZ bank (who owns the Bank of New Zealand) put out a head fake circular to clients a week ago that the RBNZ would hike rates. Some mugs bought into it. It was never going to happen, the data from the previous month didn't support it (do your own homework, don't believe everything you read). Hiking rates would in fact have harmed the NZD housing market significantly. Long version: Don't EVER trade AUD or NZD long if the EUR/AUD or EUR/NZD crosses are bullish....
how does that help anyone? all after the fact stuff. The chart tells the story. For 3 days the big players have been selling NZD - it has been in a downtrend for 3 days. this is a 4 hour chart - it is making lower highs and lower lows - the arrows show the lower highs. look at the big red bars - sellers are stronger than buyers. easy as to know it was going down on the news. the big players leave their footprints in the charts IF u know how to read them

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  • #9
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  • Feb 28, 2024 1:03am Feb 28, 2024 1:03am
Quoting Steven1
{quote} how does that help anyone? all after the fact stuff. The chart tells the story. For 3 days the big players have been selling NZD - it has been in a downtrend for 3 days. this is a 4 hour chart - it is making lower highs and lower lows - the arrows show the lower highs. look at the big red bars - sellers are stronger than buyers. easy as to know it was going down on the news. the big players leave their footprints in the charts IF u know how to read them {image}
Because being able to read a chart and understand candles is of no help if they don't understand the backdrop, and they are newbies to be asking such questions. Someone has to give them the macro picture and begin filling in the many blanks that they clearly don't yet have a grasp of. So are you going to tell them now when exactly and at what price point they should look at buying NZD? I can tell them, but best leave it to you.
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  • #10
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  • Feb 28, 2024 1:06am Feb 28, 2024 1:06am
Quoting Jade Gate
{quote} Because being able to read a chart and understand candles is of no help if they don't understand the backdrop, and they are newbies to be asking such questions. Someone has to give them the macro picture and begin filling in the many blanks that they clearly don't yet have a grasp of. So are you going to tell them now when exactly and at what price point they should look at buying NZD? I can tell them, but best leave it to you.
I will leave catching falling knives to somebody else. I prefer to buy in uptrends
  • #11
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  • Feb 28, 2024 3:13am Feb 28, 2024 3:13am
[quote=Jade Gate;14772499]Ok you 3, you're only gonna get this once so listen up. Short version: NZD bearish bec the ANZ bank (who owns the Bank of New Zealand) put out a head fake circular to clients a week ago that the RBNZ would hike rates.

Except...if people believed that rates were going up NZDUSD would be bullish....not bearish...and its been bearish for days...and more to go I would expect
its all just one persons opinion....
  • #12
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  • Feb 28, 2024 3:23am Feb 28, 2024 3:23am
[quote=Jade Gate;14772499]Ok you 3, you're only gonna get this once so listen up. Short version: NZD bearish bec the ANZ bank (who owns the Bank of New Zealand) ....

and technically NAB owns BNZ not ANZ
its all just one persons opinion....
  • #13
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  • Feb 28, 2024 3:24am Feb 28, 2024 3:24am
[quote=Jade Gate;14772499] Don't EVER trade AUD or NZD long if the EUR/AUD or EUR/NZD crosses are bullish. You will have your rear end handed to you on a spike.

But this is 100% correct
its all just one persons opinion....
  • #14
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  • Feb 28, 2024 6:27am Feb 28, 2024 6:27am
[quote=axecap;14772753]
Quoting Jade Gate
Ok you 3, you're only gonna get this once so listen up. Short version: NZD bearish bec the ANZ bank (who owns the Bank of New Zealand) put out a head fake circular to clients a week ago that the RBNZ would hike rates. Except...if people believed that rates were going up NZDUSD would be bullish....not bearish...and its been bearish for days...and more to go I would expect
Here is the original story, it was Feb 8 (so yeah more like a couple of weeks ago, not a week), when NZD was looking like it would break below 0.60

https://www.forexfactory.com/news/12...n#post14749353
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