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How to Use Macroeconomic Investing Analysis
When people think of macro investing they tend to think of Paul Tudor Jones, George Soros or Ray Dalio. These investors are using big macro trends to actively trade the markets. And while these strategies might work for some they will fail for most, in large part because they ignore the most important lessons from macro. Let me explain. Macroeconomics is the study of aggregate economies or large components of the economy. When we apply this to finance and investing the study of aggregates is especially useful because you can properly understand what “the market” is and more importantly, you can better understand ... (full story)
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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index®(LEI) for China fell by 0.1 percent in January 2024 to 151.9 (2016=100), following a dip of 0.3 percent in December 2023. As a result, ...
Turkey’s central bank held its key interest rate on Thursday, keeping it at 45% despite soaring inflation after eight consecutive months of hikes. The move was widely expected as ...
In the week ending February 17, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 201,000, a decrease of 12,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous ...
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US companies continued to report an expansion in activity during February, albeit at a slower pace. Output rose marginally as a softer uptick in services business activity weighed ...
Thank you, Adam, and thank you to Peterson for the opportunity to speak to you today. Before I begin, let me remind you that the views I will express today are my own and are not necessarily those of my colleagues in the Federal Reserve System. I will take this opportunity to share with you my outlook on the U.S. economy and some upside and downside risks to which I am paying special attention. Also, I will review past monetary policy cycles and discuss what lessons we may learn from them. With that, let me turn to my outlook for the U.S. economy. Aggregate Economic Activity Growth in real gross domestic product in 2023 came in much higher than expected by most professional forecasters, buoyed by strength in consumer spending. Toward the end of 2023, however, household balance sheets began to weaken, as indicated by higher delinquency rates and a further decline in savings. These developments lead me to expect slower growth in spending and output in 2024. Even so, without a clear understanding of why consumer spending has been so resilient, I see continuing strength in spending as an important upside risk to my forecast. One possible explanation is that consumers do not want to give up previous levels of consumption, perhaps because of habit formation as described by Robert Pollak (1970) and an optimistic view of future income prospects. Another possibility is the one raised in pioneering work by James Duesenberry (1949) 75 years ago and later developed in the context of modern macroeconomics by Jordi Gali (1994). Socially motivated consumption—or "keeping up with the Joneses"—could cause individuals to consume more than what is predicted by models that only consider household wealth and income. The Labor Market post: Fed’s Jefferson: Likely to Be Appropriate to Begin Cutting Policy Rate Later This Year Fed’s Jefferson: January CPI Data ‘Disappointing,' Shows Path Down Likely to Be Bumpy Fed’s Jefferson Says as Labor Mkt Cools, He Expects Core Services Inflation Will Continue to Moderate post: FED'S JEFFERSON: THE FED NEEDS TO REMAIN VIGILANT AND NIMBLE, SHOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF AN UNEXPECTED SHOCK OCCURS. post: The Fed's vice chair said the January CPI report shows disinflation could be "bumpy" but overall tells a story of progress on inflation, highlighting how 3- and 6-month annualized rates of core inflation are still running below 12-month rates https://t.co/6WB5p4uQYm https://t.co/8DOe5y3qiD post: Jefferson devotes the bulk of his speech to looking at Fed easing cycles since 1989. Two takeaways: -Current PCE inflation is not particularly elevated when compared to these cycles -Cuts without growth scares are very rare (but he cites 1995 as an example)
Existing-home sales grew in January, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Among the four major U.S. regions, sales accelerated in the Midwest, South and West, and ...
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- Posted: Feb 22, 2024 9:33am
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