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LEI for China Inched Down in January
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index®(LEI) for China fell by 0.1 percent in January 2024 to 151.9 (2016=100), following a dip of 0.3 percent in December 2023. As a result, the LEI declined by 1.7 percent during the six-month period ending in January 2024, following a 1.3 percent drop in the previous six-month period. The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for China increased slightly by 0.3 percent in January 2024 to 146.5 (2016=100), following a 0.7 percent increase in December 2023. Additionally, the CEI grew by 2.7 percent in the six-month period between July 2023 and January 2024, a much ... (full story)
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Thank you, Adam, and thank you to Peterson for the opportunity to speak to you today. Before I begin, let me remind you that the views I will express today are my own and are not necessarily those of my colleagues in the Federal Reserve System. I will take this opportunity to share with you my outlook on the U.S. economy and some upside and downside risks to which I am paying special attention. Also, I will review past monetary policy cycles and discuss what lessons we may learn from them. With that, let me turn to my outlook for the U.S. economy. Aggregate Economic Activity Growth in real gross domestic product in 2023 came in much higher than expected by most professional forecasters, buoyed by strength in consumer spending. Toward the end of 2023, however, household balance sheets began to weaken, as indicated by higher delinquency rates and a further decline in savings. These developments lead me to expect slower growth in spending and output in 2024. Even so, without a clear understanding of why consumer spending has been so resilient, I see continuing strength in spending as an important upside risk to my forecast. One possible explanation is that consumers do not want to give up previous levels of consumption, perhaps because of habit formation as described by Robert Pollak (1970) and an optimistic view of future income prospects. Another possibility is the one raised in pioneering work by James Duesenberry (1949) 75 years ago and later developed in the context of modern macroeconomics by Jordi Gali (1994). Socially motivated consumption—or "keeping up with the Joneses"—could cause individuals to consume more than what is predicted by models that only consider household wealth and income. The Labor Market post: Fed’s Jefferson: Likely to Be Appropriate to Begin Cutting Policy Rate Later This Year Fed’s Jefferson: January CPI Data ‘Disappointing,' Shows Path Down Likely to Be Bumpy Fed’s Jefferson Says as Labor Mkt Cools, He Expects Core Services Inflation Will Continue to Moderate post: FED'S JEFFERSON: THE FED NEEDS TO REMAIN VIGILANT AND NIMBLE, SHOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF AN UNEXPECTED SHOCK OCCURS. post: The Fed's vice chair said the January CPI report shows disinflation could be "bumpy" but overall tells a story of progress on inflation, highlighting how 3- and 6-month annualized rates of core inflation are still running below 12-month rates https://t.co/6WB5p4uQYm https://t.co/8DOe5y3qiD post: Jefferson devotes the bulk of his speech to looking at Fed easing cycles since 1989. Two takeaways: -Current PCE inflation is not particularly elevated when compared to these cycles -Cuts without growth scares are very rare (but he cites 1995 as an example)
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- Posted: Feb 22, 2024 9:01am
- Submitted by:Category: Low Impact Breaking NewsComments: 0 / Views: 2,208
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