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Hold the Champagne on the US economy
There is good news and bad news about today’s U.S. economy. The good news is that inflation is moderating towards the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent inflation target, and the once overheated labor market is now finally cooling. The bad news is that we are yet to see the full effect on the economy of the Fed’s aggressive round of interest rate hikes and to experience the fallout from the bursting of the commercial real estate bubble. This suggests that it is premature for the Fed to declare victory in its goal of a soft economic landing. If there is one thing we know about monetary policy, it is that it operates ... (full story)