Menu

  • ADP: Private Sector Employment Increased by 103,000 Jobs in November; Annual Pay was Up 5.6%

    From prnewswire.com

    Private sector employment increased by 103,000 jobs in November and annual pay was up 5.6 percent year-over-year, according to the November ADP® National Employment Report™ produced by the ADP Research Institute® in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab ("Stanford Lab"). The ADP National Employment Report is an independent measure and high-frequency view of the private-sector labor market based on actual, anonymized payroll data of more than 25 million U.S. employees. The jobs report and pay insights use ADP's fine-grained anonymized and aggregated payroll data to provide a representative picture of ... (full story)

Added at 8:22am

  • Private payrolls increased by 103,000 in November, below expectations, ADP says

    From nbcchicago.com

    Private sector job creation slowed further in November and wages showed their smallest growth in more than two years, payrolls processing form ADP reported Wednesday. Companies added just 103,000 workers for the month, slightly below the downwardly revised 106,000 in October and missing the 128,000 Dow Jones estimate. Along with the modest job growth came a 5.6% increase in annual pay, which ADP said was the smallest gain since June 2021. Job-changers saw wage increases of 8.3%, making the premium for switching positions the lowest since ADP began tracking the data three years ago. After leading job creation for most ... (full story)

  • #1
  • Quote
  • Dec 6, 2023 8:16am Dec 6, 2023 8:16am
A good NFP data anticipated!
  • #2
  • Quote
  • Dec 6, 2023 8:18am Dec 6, 2023 8:18am
very bad ....
Follow price direction
  • #3
  • Quote
  • Dec 6, 2023 8:19am Dec 6, 2023 8:19am
Another blow to the labor market
  • #4
  • Quote
  • Dec 6, 2023 8:20am Dec 6, 2023 8:20am
On Friday public jobs and part time jobs will produce a stellar report (:
  • #5
  • Quote
  • Dec 6, 2023 8:22am Dec 6, 2023 8:22am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1.png Size: 35 KB

NFP also will very bad
Follow price direction
  • #6
  • Quote
  • Dec 6, 2023 8:25am Dec 6, 2023 8:25am
The true numbers are starting to come through now.
  • #7
  • Quote
  • Dec 6, 2023 8:26am Dec 6, 2023 8:26am
Quoting hesron
{image} NFP also will very bad
So this would be bad for USD right?
  • #8
  • Quote
  • Dec 6, 2023 8:28am Dec 6, 2023 8:28am
It seems that this data is setting data that doesn't make sense
Follow price direction
  • #9
  • Quote
  • Dec 6, 2023 8:29am Dec 6, 2023 8:29am
  •  Trader#2DC4
  • | Status: Unregistered Trader
By March, Fed will have more than enough data on employment and CPI to start cutting interest rates.
  • #10
  • Quote
  • Dec 6, 2023 8:30am Dec 6, 2023 8:30am
Quoting Biomaxxfirre
{quote} So this would be bad for USD right?
Suppose to be, but you never know with what's going on around the world. Safe haven status could bring it back to life in no time.
  • #11
  • Quote
  • Dec 6, 2023 8:43am Dec 6, 2023 8:43am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 3.png Size: 37 KB
Follow price direction
  • #12
  • Quote
  • Dec 6, 2023 8:56am Dec 6, 2023 8:56am
Quoting Biomaxxfirre
{quote} So this would be bad for USD right?
yes ..... the market knows what it will do
Follow price direction
  • #13
  • Quote
  • Dec 6, 2023 9:02am Dec 6, 2023 9:02am
Now Gold safe from the bearish trend due to Private jobroll historical low increase and yesterday JOLT opening was also big declined.
  • #14
  • Quote
  • Dec 6, 2023 9:03am Dec 6, 2023 9:03am
Quoting hesron
It seems that this data is setting data that doesn't make sense
That's is because you don't know what you are looking at.

FOMC isn't concerned with job additions/subtractions as much as LABOR WAGES!

Wages increased 5.6% Year over year. That is TERRIBLE for inflation (great for those workers however)

Businesses can not absord a 5.6% increase in labor costs without passing at least 4% along to consumers.

Of course everyone, like you, looks at the headline and says oh well they aren't creating as many jobs so the FED must be done - NOPE.

Please, please for the love of God/Allah/ etc., go back in history to READ about Paul Volker and inflation in the USA and how that FED missed it and screwed the economy.

Jay Powell will not let that happen again. Please remember: Those who don't remember their history are doomed to repeat it.

Don't let that be you!
  • #15
  • Quote
  • Dec 6, 2023 9:18am Dec 6, 2023 9:18am
Quoting fx6996
{quote} That's is because you don't know what you are looking at. FOMC isn't concerned with job additions/subtractions as much as LABOR WAGES! Wages increased 5.6% Year over year. That is TERRIBLE for inflation (great for those workers however) Businesses can not absord a 5.6% increase in labor costs without passing at least 4% along to consumers. Of course everyone, like you, looks at the headline and says oh well they aren't creating as many jobs so the FED must be done - NOPE. Please, please for the love of God/Allah/ etc., go back in history...
that's why this data is setting data so that it seems to match the scenario...
Follow price direction
  • #16
  • Quote
  • Dec 6, 2023 9:45am Dec 6, 2023 9:45am
  •  Trader#4ED2
  • | Status: Unregistered Trader
Quoting Ferna
Most companies have big energy costs, that exceeds any labour costs. So that wages have risen isn’t a problem since energy costs have gone down, and productivity has increased. It’s only a small number for most companies.
Wrong, Labor costs are almost every companies biggest expense, outside of Trucking companies who have trucks on the road 24/7.
  • #17
  • Quote
  • Dec 6, 2023 10:15am Dec 6, 2023 10:15am
Quoting Guest
{quote} Wrong, Labor costs are almost every companies biggest expense, outside of Trucking companies who have trucks on the road 24/7.


Exactly what he/she wrote!
  • #18
  • Quote
  • Dec 6, 2023 10:30am Dec 6, 2023 10:30am
may I interfier - Lady and Gents - here it is, all folks from the rulling population are invested in the Shares and the stock market , which apperantly is a mirror of our super duper economy, well we see that all shares and all inddices world wilde pop up to all new ATH, please keep in mind that looking at the shares, specially the EU shares, all is candy....indeed - all are super good - we had Covid - Putin- New Covid_Israel issues now new - why noone see the facts, the glabla blure of the folks ))) ...I am short everything here , the question is - IF I AM RIGHT - what is the benefit of my short = the nothing ....good luck to all .
  • #19
  • Quote
  • Dec 6, 2023 10:45am Dec 6, 2023 10:45am
Any time my chart put out good news about the greenback, the market will put out a data that make the dollar appear bad
Anyway i will follow my chart.
ANYTHING GREAT HAS A PRICE
  • #20
  • Quote
  • Dec 6, 2023 10:51am Dec 6, 2023 10:51am
Quoting Ferna
Labour only accounts for 16% of total manufacturing costs in the U.S.
Wrong data points - click on this article is it linked to the original:
https://www.census.gov/library/visua...rica-2021.html

Manufacturing is the 5th largest employer sir...

Healthcare #1
Retail #2
Hotel & food services #3
Waste management services #4

Manufacturing #5 - so yeah labor is only 16% for them but labor is over 50% in healthcare and 30% of retail and 40% in Food/hospitality.

Those industries make up the backbone of the US economy and they/we can't take 5% and swallow it.
  • #21
  • Quote
  • Dec 6, 2023 10:58am Dec 6, 2023 10:58am
  •  Trader#4ED2
  • | Status: Unregistered Trader
Quoting Ferna
Labour only accounts for 16% of total manufacturing costs in the U.S.
According to Paycor , Dec 2022:

What is the largest expense of most business in the US?
Labor costs
Labor costs can account for as much as 70% of total business costs; this includes employee wages, benefits, payroll and other related taxes.Dec 8, 2022
  • #22
  • Quote
  • Dec 6, 2023 1:15pm Dec 6, 2023 1:15pm
  •  Trader#4ED2
  • | Status: Unregistered Trader
Great to hear to follow real jobs. I work in a real job as an accountant. We have 22 employees and 13 service vans/trucks. Our Financial statement for 2023 shows our Labor cost is 48.66 % of all expenses. Gas is 1.15% and Utilities ( Nat Gas/electricity) is .29%. The data doesn't lie.
  • #23
  • Quote
  • Dec 6, 2023 2:56pm Dec 6, 2023 2:56pm
Quoting Ferna
But the costs are passed on and not obvious at first..
……and there we have the ad infinitum loop of inflation. Productivity lags , wage inflation demands increase and the loop is complete
  • #24
  • Quote
  • Dec 6, 2023 6:30pm Dec 6, 2023 6:30pm
Quoting Ferna
Labour only accounts for 16% of total manufacturing costs in the U.S.
Manufacturing is less than 9% of US GDP.
  • #25
  • Quote
  • Dec 7, 2023 2:20am Dec 7, 2023 2:20am
Bad ADP data and Unemployment claims doesn’t mean the NFP will turn out badly for the USA.

Trade what you see not what you feel
ryoiki tenkai : Blue Juggernaut
  • #26
  • Quote
  • Dec 7, 2023 4:09am Dec 7, 2023 4:09am
Quoting Doublepanda
Bad ADP data and Unemployment claims doesn’t mean the NFP will turn out badly for the USA. Trade what you see not what you feel
this is so 100% by statistics, wanted to write it... you did it...USD needs to go down...
For all who ask here new people what will happen - EURUSD- GBPUSD-GOLD - will be long a good option
  • New Comment
  •  Trader#CD19
  • | Status: Unregistered Trader
Create Account
  • Story Stats