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AUD/USD: Bullish breakout ahead of monthly AU CPI data
This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “AUD/USD torpedoed towards key short-term support for a potential bullish reversal” published on 10 November 2023. Click here for a recap. The AUD/USD has staged the expected rally right above the 0.6330 key short-term support as highlighted in our analysis where it printed an intraday low of 0.6339 on 10 November 2023 and hit the 0.6520 resistance on 15 November 2023. Thereafter, its price actions continued its short-term bullish momentum as it cleared above 0.6520 and the long-term 200-day moving average (acting as a resistance at 0.6595) yesterday, 27 November ... (full story)
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post: *FED'S WALLER: INCREASINGLY CONFIDENT POLICY IS WELL POSITIONED *WALLER: POLICY HELPED RAPID INFLATION IMPROVEMENT IN LAST YEAR post: WALLER: CANNOT NOTE FOR SURE IF FED HAS DONE ENOUGH; DATA OVER NEXT COUPLE MONTHS WILL HOPEFULLY TELL WALLER: 'ENCOURAGED' BY SIGNS OF MODERATING ECONOMIC GROWTH WALLER: INFLATION STILL TOO HIGH, TOO EARLY TO NOTE IF SLOWING WILL BE SUSTAINED WALLER: PREMATURE TO RELY…Waller: Something Appears to Be Giving Last month, I gave a speech entitled "Something's Got to Give."1 That message was prompted by the fact that we were observing strong economic growth and employment data in the third quarter, while simultaneously seeing a clear moderation in core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation. While this was good news for employment growth, the pace of real economic activity seemed inconsistent with continued progress toward the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) goal of 2 percent inflation. It seemed clear to me then that something had to give— for inflation to continue falling to our 2 percent target, the economy needed to slow from its torrid third-quarter pace. If it did not cool off, then it was likely that progress on inflation would stop or even reverse. So, what remained to be seen was whether the economy would cool or inflation would heat up. I am encouraged by what we have learned in the past few weeks—something appears to be giving, and it's the pace of the economy. Data for October indicated an easing in economic activity, and forecasts for the fourth quarter show the kind of moderation that is more in keeping with progress on lowering inflation. In addition, after watching core PCE inflation increase in September from its summer lows, the latest data showed inflation moving in the right direction in October, albeit gradually. While I am encouraged by the early signs of moderating economic activity in the fourth quarter based on the data in hand, inflation is still too high, and it is too early to say whether the slowing we are seeing will be sustained. But I am increasingly confident that policy is currently well positioned to slow the economy and get inflation back to 2 percent. That said, there is still significant uncertainty about the pace of future activity, and so I cannot say for sure whether the FOMC has done enough to achieve price stability. Hopefully, the data we receive over the next couple of months will help answer that question. Let's start by updating the picture on economic activity. The initial estimate was that real gross domestic product (GDP) grew at a vigorous 4.9 p
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- Posted: Nov 28, 2023 9:50am
- Submitted by:Category: Technical AnalysisComments: 0 / Views: 3,787
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