Seeking Fair Value
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FX Daily: Another black November for the US dollar?
November was a crucial month for the dollar in 2022. DXY dropped around 5% on the back of a large unwinding of dollar positions as inflation appeared to be easing faster than expected. The first days of November 2023 have also seen the dollar correct lower, this time driven by a bearish interpretation of the Federal Reserve's announcement (which acknowledged tighter financial conditions are hitting the economy) and a set of weaker-than-expected US activity data with payrolls and ISM surveys. Throughout the whole of November 2022, the USD 2-year swap rate had dropped 45bp; in the first days of November 2023, it has ... (full story)