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  • Statement on Monetary Policy

    From boj.or.jp Story is in PDF Format

    At the Monetary Policy Meeting held today, the Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided to further increase the flexibility in the conduct of yield curve control. Specifically, while the Bank will maintain the target level of 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yields at around zero percent, it will conduct yield curve control with the upper bound of 1.0 percent for these yields as a reference and will control the yields mainly through large-scale JGB purchases and nimble market operations. In this manner, the Bank will patiently continue with monetary easing. The Bank decided on the following regarding yield ... (full story)

Added at 11:36pm

Added at 11:40pm

  • USD/JPY spikes to fresh daily top, retakes 150.00 mark after BoJ policy decision

    From fxstreet.com

    The USD/JPY pair regains positive traction during the Asian session on Tuesday and snaps a two-day losing streak to the 148.80 area, or a two-week low touched the previous day. The buying interest picks up pace after the Bank of Japan (BoJ) announced its policy decision, pushing spot prices to the 150.00 psychological mark, or a fresh daily high in the last hour. The Japanese central bank refrained from altering its yield curve control (YCC) policy, though changed language around the target range for the benchmark 10-year yield. The BoJ decides to keep the yield target but make 1% a reference cap. The move comes on ... (full story)

  • #1
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  • Oct 30, 2023 11:40pm Oct 30, 2023 11:40pm
YCC up to 1% is a good news for Yen.
  • #2
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  • Oct 30, 2023 11:47pm Oct 30, 2023 11:47pm
Quoting kitti10
YCC up to 1% is a good news for Yen.
yeah rate differential of -0.10% vs 5% is good too
  • #3
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  • Oct 30, 2023 11:54pm Oct 30, 2023 11:54pm
Hmm. I think JPY strength will increase slowly for this matter
  • #4
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  • Oct 31, 2023 12:08am Oct 31, 2023 12:08am
  •  Trader#D083
  • | Status: Unregistered Trader
Quoting jordanvic
{quote} yeah rate differential of -0.10% vs 5% is good too
You don't get it. This is prep for a rate increase, which means a contraction in the differential, which means speculation will exit soon. It's a slow process but we are at the ceiling for usdjpy, and it's going to start reversing.
  • #5
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  • Oct 31, 2023 1:53am Oct 31, 2023 1:53am
  •  Trader#BC89
  • | Status: Unregistered Trader
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has made some changes to its policies, which can affect the Japanese Yen (JPY) in simple terms:

Widening Yield Target Range: The BoJ has expanded the range within which it will allow the yield on 10-year Japanese Government Bonds (JGB) to fluctuate. It used to be within a range of 0.5%, but now it's at +/- 1%. This means they are allowing more flexibility in the interest rates on these bonds.

No More Fixed Rate Purchasing: The BoJ used to set specific daily rates for buying JGBs, but they are scrapping this practice. This change means they won't be as predictable in their bond-buying activities.

Maintaining Negative Short-Term Interest Rates: The BoJ will keep its short-term interest rate target at -0.1%. This means they will continue to charge banks a small fee for holding their excess reserves.

Keeping 10-Year Yield Target Steady: The BoJ is maintaining its target for the 10-year JGB yield at around 0%, which means they will continue to try to keep long-term interest rates low.

In simple terms, these changes suggest that the BoJ is allowing more flexibility in long-term interest rates, which might affect the value of the Japanese Yen. It also means they are sticking with their policy of keeping short-term rates negative and trying to control long-term rates. These changes can influence how investors perceive the Japanese Yen's value in the global market.
  • #6
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  • Oct 31, 2023 1:58am Oct 31, 2023 1:58am
Quoting Guest
{quote} You don't get it. This is prep for a rate increase, which means a contraction in the differential, which means speculation will exit soon. It's a slow process but we are at the ceiling for usdjpy, and it's going to start reversing.
the market seems to disagree with you
its all just one persons opinion....
  • #7
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  • Oct 31, 2023 2:19am Oct 31, 2023 2:19am
Quoting Guest
{quote} You don't get it. This is prep for a rate increase, which means a contraction in the differential, which means speculation will exit soon. It's a slow process but we are at the ceiling for usdjpy, and it's going to start reversing.
If only i had a dollar for every time i hear UJ is at the top i would have 5 private planes by now. sure one day it will be the top but no reason to fight the fundamentals and trends just yet. the market will show us when it wants to break decisive lower
  • #8
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  • Oct 31, 2023 2:41am Oct 31, 2023 2:41am
  •  Trader#58E0
  • | Status: Unregistered Trader
Japan will probably only raise rates once next year, and even that, by a tiny miserable amount.

Yen will remain weak as hell until late 2024.
  • #9
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  • Oct 31, 2023 2:41am Oct 31, 2023 2:41am
xD well that was some good money
It just saddens me some of the jpy experts haven’t been around for a while. Need a re-start.
You know they are right, just their timing is off..
Equality will be the next big thing in trading
  • #10
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  • Oct 31, 2023 3:06am Oct 31, 2023 3:06am
We are getting gradually closer to achieving the price target.
BoJ's Governor Ueda: We considered FX as part of potential side effects.
BoJ's Governor Ueda: We wanted to tweak YCC before side effects increased.
BoJ's Governor Ueda: Today's steps came partly as a result of rising US long-term rates.
These are the key sentences and signals of a huge sell off for USDJPY and CHF JPY is incoming. Try to understand his words please.
  • #11
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  • Oct 31, 2023 3:26am Oct 31, 2023 3:26am
Quoting atillaken
We are getting gradually closer to achieving the price target. BoJ's Governor Ueda: We considered FX as part of potential side effects. BoJ's Governor Ueda: We wanted to tweak YCC before side effects increased. BoJ's Governor Ueda: Today's steps came partly as a result of rising US long-term rates. These are the key sentences and signals of a huge sell off for USDJPY and CHF JPY is incoming. Try to understand his words please.
Yes but there is a timing issue.....I didnt see a signal that there was anything imminent to happen. Rather they are happy to continue , possible for months
its all just one persons opinion....
  • #12
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  • Oct 31, 2023 4:23am Oct 31, 2023 4:23am
Quoting atillaken
We are getting gradually closer to achieving the price target. BoJ's Governor Ueda: We considered FX as part of potential side effects. BoJ's Governor Ueda: We wanted to tweak YCC before side effects increased. BoJ's Governor Ueda: Today's steps came partly as a result of rising US long-term rates. These are the key sentences and signals of a huge sell off for USDJPY and CHF JPY is incoming. Try to understand his words please.
It doesn't match with the data the CPI is going up and they want their price target which is 2%, I don't see how it will be achieved just by YCControlling...
  • #13
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  • Oct 31, 2023 5:06am Oct 31, 2023 5:06am
Quoting Ferna
{quote} It’s all about timing also from a macroeconomic strategy perspective. Imagine doubling the value of yen during peak western recession, what a great purchasing power that would be. It is not strategic to do anything else but hold. Wait for dollar to hit 116, crude to hit 120. We are not at peak crisis in west yet.
Completely, in my opinion, Q2 to Q3 2024 seems like a good range to start the machine
  • #14
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  • Oct 31, 2023 5:18am Oct 31, 2023 5:18am
Quoting Ferna
{quote} It’s all about timing also from a macroeconomic strategy perspective. Imagine doubling the value of yen during peak western recession, what a great purchasing power that would be. It is not strategic to do anything else but hold. Wait for dollar to hit 116, crude to hit 120. We are not at peak crisis in west yet.
.. "Wait for dollar to hit 116, crude to hit 120. We are not at peak crisis in west yet." -- do you think will it happen? based on what?
  • #15
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  • Oct 31, 2023 6:14am Oct 31, 2023 6:14am
I don't be care what BOJ does or says , I only trade what I see and chart is a reflection of any action or decision taken
With patience and discipline,you move beyond the sky
  • #16
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  • Oct 31, 2023 6:18am Oct 31, 2023 6:18am
#USDJPY #EURJPY pre-pare new entry SELL but not now
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  • #17
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  • Oct 31, 2023 7:00am Oct 31, 2023 7:00am
Quoting swing77
#USDJPY #EURJPY pre-pare new entry SELL but not now {image}
What did you do with your Heavy U/J short positions?
Failure, is a wonderful teacher!
  • #18
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  • Oct 31, 2023 9:18am Oct 31, 2023 9:18am
Quoting mike1349
{quote} What did you do with your Heavy U/J short positions?
Ready for trading...take risk but my trading tools is always read corelationbFX vs STOCK market ..xample now i m entry #EURJPY
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  • #19
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  • Oct 31, 2023 9:36am Oct 31, 2023 9:36am
I think USDJPY still bullish until DXY hit supply zone around 107.0
  • #20
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  • Oct 31, 2023 10:10am Oct 31, 2023 10:10am
Quoting Sorokane
I think USDJPY still bullish until DXY hit supply zone around 107.0
hmmm i remember that but a trader must have many option for strengt the margin ...like that. Scenario
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  • #21
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  • Oct 31, 2023 10:31am Oct 31, 2023 10:31am
Quoting swing77
{quote} hmmm i remember that but a trader must have many option for strengt the margin ...like that. Scenario {image}
I know you would do that. Thanks for sharing.
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