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S&P: US recession risk still elevated amid uncertain growth prospects
S&P: US RECESSION RISK STILL ELEVATED AMID UNCERTAIN GROWTH PROSPECTS.
— Breaking Market News (@financialjuice) September 20, 2023
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S&P: THE PROBABILITY OF A RECESSION IN THE US STARTING WITHIN NEXT 12 MONTHS HAS MODERATED SINCE BEGINNING OF YEAR BUT REMAINS ELEVATED AT 30%-35%.
— Breaking Market News (@financialjuice) September 20, 2023
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US Recession Risk Still Elevated
— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) September 20, 2023
While the probability of a recession in the US within the next 12 months has fallen since the beginning of the year, it still remains at 30% to 35%, S&P Global Ratings Economics said. Satyam Panday, S&P Global Ratings Chief Economist, US and…
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In conjunction with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held on September 19–20, 2023, meeting participants submitted their projections of the most likely outcomes for real gross domestic product (GDP) growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation for each year from 2023 to 2026 and over the longer run. Each participant’s projections were based on information available at the time of the meeting, together with her or his assessment of appropriate monetary policy—including a path for the federal funds rate and its longer-run value—and assumptions about other factors likely to affect economic outcomes. The longer-run projections represent each participant’s assessment of the value to which each variable would be expected to converge, over time, under appropriate monetary policy and in the absence of further shocks to the economy. “Appropriate monetary policy” is defined as the future path of policy that each participant deems most likely to foster outcomes for economic activity and inflation that best satisfy his or her individual interpretation of the statutory mandate to promote maximum employment and price stability post: Fed Projections Imply One More 25-Basis-Point Rate Hike This Year and 50 Bps of Rate Cuts in 2024, Versus 100 Bps of 2024 Cuts in June Projections post: Fed’s Median Rate Forecast End-’23: 5.6% [Prev. 5.6%] Fed’s Median Rate Forecast End-’24: 5.1% [Prev. 4.6%] Fed’s Median Rate Forecast End-’25: 3.9% [Prev. 3.4%] Fed’s Median Rate Forecast End-’26: 2.9% Fed’s Median Rate Forecast Longer-Run: 2.5% [Prev. 2.5%] post: 2024 dots remove 2 rate cuts: median rises from 4.6% to 5.1% How long until the market interprets this as ECB 2.0 and unleashes stagflation trade pic.twitter.com/8gGiSShyyI
Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have slowed in recent months but remain strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated. The U.S. banking system is sound and resilient. Tighter credit conditions for households and businesses are likely to weigh on economic activity, hiring, and inflation. The extent of these effects remains uncertain. The Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks. The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent. The Committee will continue to assess additional information and its implications for monetary policy. In determining the extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate to return inflation to 2 percent over time, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening post: Fed Leaves Rates Unchanged @ 5.5% Est. 5.50% post: FOMC STATMENT COMPARE >>>> pic.twitter.com/8yog93qC8h post: MORE FOMC:NO DISSENTS; SEES 5.1% RATE AT YEAREND; TIGHTER CREDIT LIKELY TO WEIGH ON ECON ACTIVITY, HIRING AND INFLATION #FederalReserve #FOMC post: Fed Repeats Language On 'Extent Of Additional Policy Firming' -Job Gains Slowed In Recent Months But Remain Strong
This is an account of the deliberations of the Bank of Canada’s Governing Council leading to the monetary policy decision on September 6, 2023. This summary reflects discussions and deliberations by members of Governing Council in stage three of the Bank’s monetary policy decision-making process. This stage takes place after members have received all staff briefings and recommendations. Governing Council’s policy decision-making meetings began on Thursday, August 31. The Governor presided over these meetings. Members in attendance were Governor Tiff Macklem, Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers and Deputy Governors Toni Gravelle, Sharon Kozicki, Nicolas Vincent and Rhys Mendes. post: BoC: Worried Holding Rates Would Raise Cut Expectations - Minutes - Didn't Discuss Cut At Sept Meeting - Tighter Policy Should Remain Potential Option - Current Wage Growth Inconsistent With Price Stability - Excess Demand Seen Diminishing $USDCAD https://t.co/m2dTgXPq3O
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The Federal Reserve System is the central bank of the United States. It performs five general functions to promote the effective operation of the U.S. economy and, more generally, ...
post: FED CHAIR POWELL: SQUARELY FOCUSED ON DUAL MANDATE post: FED'S POWELL: WITHOUT PRICE STABILITY WE WON'T HAVE STRONG JOBS MARKET. post: POWELL: GROWTH IN REAL GDP HAS COME IN ABOVE EXPECTATIONS post: PFED'S POWELL: CONSUMER SPENDING PARTICULARLY ROBUST post: FED'S POWELL: THE FED HAS COVERED A LOT OF GROUND, FULL EFFECTS HAVE YET TO BE FELT.
post: POWELL: EXPECT LABOR MARKET REBALANCING TO CONTINUE post: FED'S POWELL: UNEMPLOYMENT RATE AT 3.8% REMAINS LOW. post: POWELL: INFLATION HAS MODERATED SOMEWHAT, EXPECTATIONS APPEAR WELL-ANCHORED post: POWELL: CURRENT STANCE OF POLICY IS RESTRICTIVE
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- Posted: Sep 20, 2023 2:26pm
- Submitted by:Category: Low Impact Breaking NewsComments: 0 / Views: 2,838