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  • German business activity falls at fastest rate since May 2020

    From pmi.spglobal.com

    German business activity suffered the steepest decline for more than three years in August, according to latest HCOB ‘flash’ PMI® survey compiled by S&P Global, as a deepening downturn in manufacturing output was accompanied by a renewed contraction in services activity. Businesses remained pessimistic towards the outlook as rising interest rates, customer uncertainty and high inflation continued to weigh on demand for goods and services. Notably, the survey showed an increase in inflationary pressures, driven by accelerated cost and price increases in the service sector. The headline HCOB Flash Germany ... (full story)

EUR/USD is falling like a crashing
Outlook getting clearer. EUR, China, GB to show economic struggle along with sticky inflation. Hard landing in play.
USA towards soft landing. Strong dollar to be well supported this year.
It's all fine what are you talking about?

ECB needs to raise rates further! More rate hikes please!



Yes, I'm joking!
Quoting vinta.reddy
Outlook getting clearer. EUR, China, GB to show economic struggle along with sticky inflation. Hard landing in play. USA towards soft landing. Strong dollar to be well supported this year.
All the economies are in bad shape.
WHY SO VERY BAD
Probability Win = 20% Lose = 80%
Quoting hesron
WHY SO VERY BAD
Because EU is in recession.
Recession announced. Maybe it's time to sell dax
The measure of intelligence is the ability to adapt!
Jeeez, the ugliest contraction this year !! (actually since Nov. 2022)
Way below forcast !! ...and so below 50% !!
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Member
Quoting hesron
WHY SO VERY BAD
Because we ran out of free money. EU is overleveraged with debt with variable rates and its starting to bite. ECB Hasnt realized it yet. Just like the other way around. Like anything this bitrs the poorest people and I am Truls sorry forvthe germans that has to work extra jobs to pay for a cola.
Germany has always been the leading country in the EU without knowing the term "recession". It's time to roll up your sleeves!
The measure of intelligence is the ability to adapt!
Lower rates incoming. But it will be too late before ECB realizes their policy mistakes. And once they do they will act too slow. So rates will go lower than they had to.
Time to add to DAX for long term positioning
Next is US on the block, Summer season is ending so no more crap hospitality jobs pumping up the numbers.

I believe we are going to be in global Q3 recession in 2023, and rate cuts in Q1 2024.
Quoting vinta.reddy
Outlook getting clearer. EUR, China, GB to show economic struggle along with sticky inflation. Hard landing in play. USA towards soft landing. Strong dollar to be well supported this year.
Yes, I'd agree. That's a pretty good assessment, broad-brush.
UK numbers are also Bad. UK has much more to do on inflation and rates are already high. BOE's job must be the hardest of all central banks.
Still ...it seems professional traders don't really care
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Quoting vinta.reddy
UK numbers are also Bad. UK has much more to do on inflation and rates are already high. BOE's job must be the hardest of all central banks.
Yes, I'd agree with that too. Just for now, it depends which data point lags another and at what point in the future all of relevant data points then correlate on the same trend.
Quoting TudorIoan
Still ...it seems professional traders don't really care {image}
do you seriously think that the DAX index will just free fall based on those numbers? It will take days/weeks for the numbers to be truly digested and trillions of Eur traded with Dax to get that beast to move significant amount, that initial spike was algos.
Quoting shape
Recession announced. Maybe it's time to sell dax
There's a double top on h4 in the making, should watch it.
Quoting Bakker
{quote} There's a double top on h4 in the making, should watch it.
I don't presume to read the future and I'm wrong many times, weekly shouts sell. Just my opinion
The measure of intelligence is the ability to adapt!
Quoting MatTrader101
{quote} do you seriously think that the DAX index will just free fall based on those numbers? It will take days/weeks for the numbers to be truly digested and trillions of Eur traded with Dax to get that beast to move significant amount, that initial spike was algos.
It takes our traders 9 trading days to unload if they wanted to do a complete unload without spooking the markets. So yes, it will always be up n down.
Quoting MatTrader101
{quote} do you seriously think that the DAX index will just free fall based on those numbers? It will take days/weeks for the numbers to be truly digested and trillions of Eur traded with Dax to get that beast to move significant amount, that initial spike was algos.
No falls. I don't do long-term analysis just what I see
The measure of intelligence is the ability to adapt!
Quoting shape
{quote} I don't presume to read the future and I'm wrong many times, weekly shouts sell. Just my opinion
It needs another weekly bar; the one after that will show the way.
Quoting MatTrader101
{quote} do you seriously think that the DAX index will just free fall based on those numbers? It will take days/weeks for the numbers to be truly digested and trillions of Eur traded with Dax to get that beast to move significant amount, that initial spike was algos.
Nope, I didn't even say that. It was just a momentary observation. I use to trade short term momentums.
Said that the big money didn't seem to take into account more than one hour short term perspective caused by a severe downturn on some pretty important metric. Which might feel weird somehow if the FX wouldn't have responded better.
Member
Quoting shape
Recession announced. Maybe it's time to sell dax
DAX is already selling off since August 1st. You didn't notice?

Dropped +/- 1100 points from the top Aug 1st.

Next down target 15.500 zone test

Up target 15.900>>>16K. All markets still bearish overall.
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"It's better to be out wishing to be in... than to be in wishing to be out!
Quoting Dutchy Daxy
{quote} DAX is already selling off since August 1st. You didn't notice? {image}
The measure of intelligence is the ability to adapt!
Quoting Banditten
{quote} Because we ran out of free money. EU is overleveraged with debt with variable rates and its starting to bite. ECB Hasnt realized it yet. Just like the other way around. Like anything this bitrs the poorest people and I am Truls sorry forvthe germans that has to work extra jobs to pay for a cola.
Is it really that hard to live in the EU now ?

Why did Lagarde say that the inflation rate recovery in the EU would be faster than in the US during the meeting of several central bank governors/presidents before
Probability Win = 20% Lose = 80%
Quoting hesron
{quote} Is it really that hard to live in the EU now ? Why did Lagarde say that the inflation rate recovery in the EU would be faster than in the US during the meeting of several central bank governors/presidents before
Personally not suffering but I start to believe that some are. Working poor is not something I made up but they just got working poorer
Double Top almost complete
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Quoting hesron
{quote} Is it really that hard to live in the EU now ? Why did Lagarde say that the inflation rate recovery in the EU would be faster than in the US during the meeting of several central bank governors/presidents before
Sorry for the bad English, I use the translator. I trade full time but I don't have the skills to talk about economics, no study on it. I'm not so young I have a business and I can tell you that here in Europe the short/medium term future prospects are not reassuring, especially for the lower middle class. The gap of inequalities is widening.
The measure of intelligence is the ability to adapt!
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