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Spectacularly Wrong
The nominal recovery in GDP since the pandemic recession has surprised almost everyone. We just experienced the strongest economic recovery since the end of World War II. chart Last October when the stock market bottomed, 60% of economists expected a recession in the next twelve months. They were following the standard playbook of inflation up, rates up, asset prices down, and economic activity down. chart Not even twelve months later, and nobody is talking about a recession anymore. chart The first chart in this post showed nominal GDP growth, which you are rightly thinking, “show me real numbers. Strip out ... (full story)