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Forecasting NFP: A mixed US job market, a slight slowdown
After a historic rate-hiking cycle, the US job market remains robust when compared to previous episodes of monetary tightening. But as we assess the available data and model other indicators to forecast the future, a mixed picture for the labour market is revealed. We are calling for the non-farm payrolls (NFP) report this week to show 190,000 added jobs in July. This trails the 200,000 consensus estimate. Our nowcast approach includes univariate and multivariate models, weighting them based on their historical performance. On the univariate side, there are approaches such as VECM, VAR and ARIMA. For the multivariate ... (full story)