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ECB Watch: Another hike but then what?
A 25bp rate hike at the ECB July meeting looks like a done deal, so all focus is on what the central bank will signal about the future. Will the ECB be in a pure data-dependent mode, or does it want to indicate that further hiking looks likely? The accounts from the June meeting further cemented expectations of another 25bp rate hike at the 27 July meeting by arguing that all three elements of the ECB’s reaction function – the inflation outlook, the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission – still supported further tightening. The data since then, including the June ... (full story)
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