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  • Labour market overview, UK: July 2023

    From ons.gov.uk

    The UK employment rate was estimated at 76.0% in March to May 2023, 0.2 percentage points higher than December 2022 to February 2023. The quarterly increase in employment was mainly attributed to part-time employees. The estimate of payrolled employees for June 2023 shows a monthly decrease, down 9,000 on the revised May 2023 figure, to 30.0 million. The June 2023 estimate should be treated as a provisional estimate and is likely to be revised when more data are received next month. The unemployment rate for March to May 2023 increased by 0.2 percentage points on the quarter to 4.0%. The increase in unemployment was ... (full story)

This is good or bad news ? bcs wht i just read, for me this is bad news for Uk.
  •  Guest
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yes bad news, check out this link they explain it pretty well https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-ca...d-7bc667307fb4
Mixed data (average earnings increased which is inflationary) while others are showing deterioration of economic conditions. I feel BOE needs to keep raising rates to bring down high inflation. However every increase in rates will put a nail to economic conditions and hence not support Pound.
The quarterly increase in employment was mainly attributed to part time employees.The USD is heavy weight as far this data is concern.
The "unemployment rate" is a measure of social risk. Too high and the streets erupt.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life!
Quoting Exodus
The "unemployment rate" is a measure of social risk. Too high and the streets erupt.
Crikey, that's a bit extreme. There is a spectrum of consequences and 'social unrest' is way down the other end of the spectrum that represents the current status.

Until people become less certain that they can even ASK for wage rises rather than the current status of just expecting better wages because the employment rate is still basically at the best it's been and companies continue to report staff shortages, the wage increases provide a foundation for high-inflation to remain steadfast.

So, in these figures the wages factor and highest employment rate remain more significant and have longer-term effects than the increase in the Claimant Count figure, which is slightly more temporary and of a shorter-term nature.
so why has the GBP bolted higher..doesn't make sense to me?
Quoting pianoman
so why has the GBP bolted higher..doesn't make sense to me?
Further evidence of RoI still being deep-rooted, which implies that BoE will still be raising interest rates at a pace.
Quoting DaJoWaBa
{quote} Crikey, that's a bit extreme. There is a spectrum of consequences and 'social unrest' is way down the other end of the spectrum that represents the current status. Until people become less certain that they can even ASK for wage rises rather than the current status of just expecting better wages because the employment rate is still basically at the best it's been and companies continue to report staff shortages, the wage increases provide a foundation for high-inflation to remain steadfast. So, in these figures the wages factor and highest...
So... you are agreeing but consider society's position on "the scale" to be currently in the safe zone.

In 2011 we had riots in Croydon, the nature of the spark was less important than the fact that the tinder was dry enough to flare. We had more disturbances in 2019, fingers pointed at 'children' but it still amounts to intent not to conform.

The Chinese watch their unemployment ratio very carefully, above 7% and the security of the CCP is considered to be precarious and government programmes have been brought to bear in order to redress that figure.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life!
Quoting Exodus
{quote} So... you are agreeing but consider society's position on "the scale" to be currently in the safe zone. In 2011 we had riots in Croydon, the nature of the spark was less important than the fact that the tinder was dry enough to flare. We had more disturbances in 2019, fingers pointed at 'children' but it still amounts to intent not to conform. The Chinese watch their unemployment ratio very carefully, above 7% and the security of the CCP is considered to be precarious and government programmes have been brought to bear in order...
"So... you are agreeing but consider society's position on "the scale" to be currently in the safe zone."

In a word, "Yes". One can argue that just about any matter is on a sliding scale between public calm and riot.

However, I remake the following points with regard to the current UK status:
1) Employment remains nearest its record highs, even if there has been a dent due to post-Covid health issues
2) Unemployment remains near its record lows, whether they are unemployed due to personal choice, poor health, lack of skills and training or any other influence such as failing businesses.
3) UK Businesses and Public bodies all have issues with hiring sufficient staff, even with Immigration at unsustainable highs
4) Although wages have been behind the RoI curve, as is often the case with a rapid bout of inflation brought on by sudden global shocks (pandemic/Ukraine), they are clearly chasing the real RoI, which emphasises all of the previous points in 1-3 above.
5) It might hurt to be finding one's real earnings behind the curve but that's not as bad a situation as when you have no or little income, when unemployed by force rather than choice, with no hope of immediate resolution and lots of time on your hands to fester.
6) China is not a great choice of example for comparison: there are too many differences between a modern Social Democracy and a dictatorial, one-party state: comparing and contrasting every parameter on the likelihood of social unrest or dissatisfaction would be an onerous task. Comparisons with Europe would be a better choice and the UK's unemployment/employment figures stand up well to those.

Have a good day.
Quoting DaJoWaBa
{quote} "So... you are agreeing but consider society's position on "the scale" to be currently in the safe zone." In a word, "Yes". One can argue that just about any matter is on a sliding scale between public calm and riot. However, I remake the following points with regard to the current UK status: 1) Employment remains nearest its record highs, even if there has been a dent due to post-Covid health issues 2) Unemployment remains near its record lows, whether they are unemployed due to personal choice, poor health,...
The pain felt by, or inflicted upon, the ordinary people is just beginning. Give it a few more months.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life!
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