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Two more RBA rate hikes, tumbling inflation, and a high chance of recession: how our forecasting panel sees 2023-24
Of the 27 leading economists assembled by The Conversation to forecast the financial year that’s just begun, every one expects inflation to continue to fall. The official quarterly measure of inflation peaked at 7.8% in the year to December and is now 7%, and the newer monthly measure peaked at 8.4% and is now 5.6%. What’s at issue is how quickly inflation will continue to fall, how many more times the Reserve Bank will push up interest rates to make sure it falls as quickly as it wants, and the damage those rate hikes will do to an already very weak economy. Twelve of the 27 think a recession is either more ... (full story)