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Two Key Housing Themes: Low Inventory and Few Distressed Sales
Every housing cycle is different. One of the key themes in this cycle is that existing home inventory is historically extremely low as many homeowners are “locked in” to their current home with low mortgage rates. Another key theme is that there will be few distressed sales as most homeowners have substantial equity. Here is some data on outstanding mortgage rates and current loan-to-values. Here is some data from the FHFA’s National Mortgage Database showing the distribution of interest rates on closed-end, fixed-rate 1-4 family mortgages outstanding at the end of each quarter since Q1 2013 through Q4 2022. ... (full story)
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post at 5:38pm: *Fed’s Bostic: Fed Officials to Let Data Guide Them on Rate Moves *Fed’s Bostic: Fed Doesn’t Want to Be Locked Into Particular Rate Move post at 5:40pm: *Bostic: Fed Not Close to Inflation Goal, Must Stay Focused on It post at 5:41pm: FED'S BOSTIC: EXPECT TO SEE LABOR-MARKET STRESS WHEN INFLATION EASES TO TARGET. post at 5:41pm: *Fed’s Bostic: Best Case is Fed Won’t Mull Rate Cut Till Well Into ’24
AUDUSD is breaking down from a range that’s been intact since early March. It’s been an incredible 200-pip range to trade for those who took advantage of it. However, if today’s ...
post at 4:12pm: *RBNZ Gov Orr: Rates Are Restrictive, Well Above Neutral post at 4:13pm: RBNZ'S GOVERNOR ORR: ECONOMIC GROWTH AND INFLATION ARE WEAKER THAN EXPECTED. post at 4:14pm: RBNZ'S GOVERNOR ORR: WE CAN CHANGE ASSESSMENT IF NEEDED AS NEW DATA EMERGES. post at 4:27pm: RBNZ'S GOVERNOR ORR: ALWAYS RETAIN POLICY OPTIONALITY.
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GBP futures sink for third session as U.K. inflation surprises to the upside. Bob Iaccino discusses.
post at 6:37pm: Fitch Places United States’ ‘AAA’ on Rating Watch Negative post at 6:37pm: Fitch: US’ ‘AAA’ Rating Watch Negative Reflects Increased Political Partisanship That is Hindering Resolution to Raise or Suspend Debt Limit post at 6:39pm: Fitch: Still expecting a resolution to debt limit before x-date, higher risks that debt limit won't be raised/suspended. Brinkmanship among factors that signal downside risks -BBG post at 6:40pm: Fitch: Would Expect US Country Ceiling to Remain at ‘AAA’ Even in Scenario of a Debt DefaultFitch Places United States' 'AAA' on Rating Watch Negative The Rating Watch Negative reflects increased political partisanship that is hindering reaching a resolution to raise or suspend the debt limit despite the fast-approaching x date (when the U.S. Treasury exhausts its cash position and capacity for extraordinary measures without incurring new debt). Fitch still expects a resolution to the debt limit before the x-date. However, we believe risks have risen that the debt limit will not be raised or suspended before the x-date and consequently that the government could begin to miss payments on some of its obligations. The brinkmanship over the debt ceiling, failure of the U.S. authorities to meaningfully tackle medium-term fiscal challenges that will lead to rising budget deficits and a growing debt burden signal downside risks to U.S. creditworthiness. Debt Limit Reached: The U.S. reached its $31.4 trillion debt limit on Jan. 19, 2023, and the Treasury began taking extraordinary measures in order to avoid breaching the ceiling. The Treasury has stated that these extraordinary measures could be exhausted as early as June 1, 2023. The cash balance of the Treasury reached USD76.5 billion as of May 23 and sizeable payments are due June 1-2, meaning that the x-date could arrive as the Treasury indicated and before an agreement is reached or finalized with votes in the House and Senate. X-Date Approaching: The failure to reach a deal to raise or suspend the debt limit by the x-date would be a negative signal of the broader governance and willingness of the U.S. to honor its obligations in a timely fashion, which would be unlikely to be consistent with a 'AAA' rating, in Fitch's view. Prioritization of debt securities over other due payments after the x-date would avoid a default. Similarly, avoiding default by non-conventional means such as minting a trillion-dollar coin or invoking the 14th amendment is unlikely to be consistent with a 'AAA' rating and could also be subject to legal challenges.
EUR/USD holds lower grounds as bears prod the 1.0750 mark after falling to the fresh low since late March during early Thursday in Asia. In doing so, the Euro pair drops for the ...
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- Posted: May 24, 2023 5:41pm
- Submitted by:Category: Fundamental AnalysisComments: 0 / Views: 635