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  • Consumer price inflation, UK: March 2023

    From ons.gov.uk

    The Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH) rose by 8.9% in the 12 months to March 2023, down from 9.2% in February. The largest upward contributions to the annual CPIH inflation rate in March 2023 came from housing and household services (principally from electricity, gas and other fuels), and food and non-alcoholic beverages. On a monthly basis, CPIH rose by 0.7% in March 2023, compared with a rise of 0.9% in March 2022. The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 10.1% in the 12 months to March 2023, down from 10.4% in February. On a monthly basis, CPI rose by 0.8% in March 2023, ... (full story)

  • #1
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  • Apr 19, 2023 2:02am Apr 19, 2023 2:02am
Nice
  • #2
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  • Apr 19, 2023 2:03am Apr 19, 2023 2:03am
  •  Trader#261D
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why does higher than forecast inflation show as a positive (green) why is that good for the currency?
  • #3
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  • Apr 19, 2023 2:08am Apr 19, 2023 2:08am
Quoting Guest
why does higher than forecast inflation show as a positive (green) why is that good for the currency?
Higher Inflation -> Higher interest rates to bring inflation down -> Higher currency. So Higher inflation is good for the currency. Not necessarily its good for the economy however.
  • #4
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  • Apr 19, 2023 2:14am Apr 19, 2023 2:14am
  •  Trader#0620
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l dont understand why higher than forecast is good for currency
  • #5
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  • Apr 19, 2023 2:16am Apr 19, 2023 2:16am
price only playing structure now ..... before up more in gbpusd to closed gap at 1.2468 .... the USD is not ready to continuatioin down trend tf monthly due to crisis
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  • #6
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  • Apr 19, 2023 2:21am Apr 19, 2023 2:21am
Quoting Guest
l dont understand why higher than forecast is good for currency
Higher than forecast means more inflation than what was being priced in by the market. Further look at this post:

https://www.cryptocraft.com/news/121...3#post14399233
  • #7
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  • Apr 19, 2023 2:21am Apr 19, 2023 2:21am
Quoting Guest
why does higher than forecast inflation show as a positive (green) why is that good for the currency?
swagtrading is correct but in addition remember that all currencies are to be compared with another (You trade pairs). So any nominal or trending figure can't be taken in complete isolation.
  • #8
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  • Apr 19, 2023 2:22am Apr 19, 2023 2:22am
I thought the results will pull up GBP/USD . seems something funny here
  • #9
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  • Apr 19, 2023 2:35am Apr 19, 2023 2:35am
The UK deserves this. It looks like the more military and financial aid they send to Ukraine the more pervasive and stubborn inflation gets.
  • #10
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  • Apr 19, 2023 2:40am Apr 19, 2023 2:40am
Just energy companies posting record profits whilst UK consumers pay record prices. Man made inflation
Break the cake
  • #11
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  • Apr 19, 2023 2:47am Apr 19, 2023 2:47am
Inflation is still high as f...
  • #12
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  • Apr 19, 2023 2:51am Apr 19, 2023 2:51am
bears before make wrong decision to leave the gap whitout closed
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  • #13
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  • Apr 19, 2023 2:52am Apr 19, 2023 2:52am
Price (cost of living) rise, also inflation rise (not fall) / tightening easing, translats a possible suspension in rate rise / this isn't good. By the year end expectations are inflation to fall to 6% - is equivalent to living in a fairyland.
  • #14
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  • Apr 19, 2023 2:52am Apr 19, 2023 2:52am
Quoting unemployed
The UK deserves this. It looks like the more military and financial aid they send to Ukraine the more pervasive and stubborn inflation gets.
I guess you must think there are enough gullible people here to fall for that warped political narrative for you to bother making such a ridiculous comment. It's not a rational statistical investigation.
You're just reaching to make a correlation where there is none. It's not remotely close to being scientific methodology.
By your measure the USA would have even higher inflation, Germany too and as for many of the East European countries, their figures would be off the charts.
  • #15
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  • Apr 19, 2023 2:59am Apr 19, 2023 2:59am
All those rather Dim folks at B of E and Treasury need to be found jobs more their speed ... weed picking in Brighton ??

Wrong, inflation isn't going to come down by going out to lunches paid for by the ever more burdened British taxpayer as you quaff fine wines with you're Banker buddies.

The only way to beat this inflation is higher rates, do the Math half-wits, or move over and let someone else help you find the on switch on you're Abacus
  • #16
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  • Edited 4:07am Apr 19, 2023 3:04am | Edited 4:07am
Quoting Jolita
Price (cost of living) rise, also inflation rise (not fall) / tightening easing, translats a possible suspension in rate rise / this isn't good. By the year end expectations are inflation to fall to 6% - is equivalent to living in a fairyland.
Inflation is and has been high BUT real wages have been behind the curve (and some 4-5% less than the RoI), which has been showing up in poor retail figures and many businesses will now be taking hits to margins rather than just the initial response of raising prices. Although unemployment is historically still very low, the real wage and margin reductions are in themselves a fundamental lagging inflation reducing force, which can be expected to show up in the figures soon.
The rapid rise in inflation from about a year ago due to a) global logistics imbalances and b) energy spikes due to the war in Ukraine, will, by the very definition of annual inflation figures, be likely to induce dramatic drop figures too, now that both of these features are no longer adding fuel (pun!) to the fire.
So, it's POSSIBLE there could be large reductions in the RoI this summer before the next energy squeeze happens in the autumn.
  • #17
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  • Apr 19, 2023 3:06am Apr 19, 2023 3:06am
all liquidity is over ..... back to main/minor structure ..... there is no uptrend .... because tf daily sideways
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  • #18
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  • Apr 19, 2023 3:11am Apr 19, 2023 3:11am
  •  Trader#34FB
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FFS... Does anyone think BREXIT might have something to do with this. The basic premise is look Infront of your nose
  • #19
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  • Apr 19, 2023 3:14am Apr 19, 2023 3:14am
Quoting NewtonsCash
All those rather Dim folks at B of E and Treasury need to be found jobs more their speed ... weed picking in Brighton ?? Wrong, inflation isn't going to come down by going out to lunches paid for by the ever more burdened British taxpayer as you quaff fine wines with you're Banker buddies. The only way to beat this inflation is higher rates, do the Math half-wits, or move over and let someone else help you find the on switch on you're Abacus
I guess in one sense it's good that they're worried sh****ss about being masters of a complete crash even if a severe recession is a tried and tested absolute remedy.
They keep telling themselves that a 'soft landing' is always the way to go, even if that has other unpalatable consequences.
I keep returning to the idea of whether the BoE's brief should not be the consensual favoured 2% RoI target but an interest rate of Inflation-plus-1 or 2%. That would force the interest rate to be reactive to the slightest tick and force all investments to be productive.
  • #20
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  • Apr 19, 2023 3:14am Apr 19, 2023 3:14am
Quoting Guest
l dont understand why higher than forecast is good for currency
More inflation equal rate hikes and rate hikes equal currency increase
  • #21
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  • Apr 19, 2023 3:19am Apr 19, 2023 3:19am
https://www.rateinflation.com/inflat...was%201.142%25.
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may be UK inflation rate now near 11.0% .... hehehehe
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  • #22
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  • Apr 19, 2023 3:30am Apr 19, 2023 3:30am
Quoting Guest
FFS... Does anyone think BREXIT might have something to do with this. The basic premise is look Infront of your nose
Ugh! Ditch that idea straight away.
You're trying to make a correlation where there is none.
RoI is a comparison with the status either monthly or annually.
Unless you've been hiding under a very large rock since 2019, say, I hate to inform you that Brexit comparisons are out of the status comparisons from a month ago and even a year ago.
Now, there will be some element of inflation of you're at the end of a logistical chain, for sure, but the % will be very small relative to other factors such as global energy prices and food supplies. See if you can bother to research why that is emphasised in the UK.
I hate to be the bearer of news in your political bubble but more countries in the world are not in the EU than there are in it, so your non-correlation falls at the first hurdle. By your reckoning every country that trades with the EU but is not part of it, must have higher inflation than the EU. Nonsense.
  • #23
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  • Apr 19, 2023 3:43am Apr 19, 2023 3:43am
  •  Trader#5C81
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Lots of debate but the answer is straight up easy to anyone living in UK. The inflation is stubborn & wont go down because our supermarkets are in ripoff mode. They are putting prices up every wk for basic goods on-going. They wont stop because they have a mind set of make the most of this opportunity while they still can. Bank of England is in wimp mode & will likely stop rate raises soon because of fear of crushing the already ponzi house market.
  • #24
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  • Apr 19, 2023 3:50am Apr 19, 2023 3:50am
the short squeeze on yen is real. starting to feel the pain in that market
  • #25
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  • Apr 19, 2023 5:05am Apr 19, 2023 5:05am
  •  Trader#6E4B
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Quoting jordanvic
the short squeeze on yen is real. starting to feel the pain in that market
I advise you not to buy Yen, yet! It's clear that recent highs are going to be taken out. Probably going to see a retest of these highs and then price will continue going up for the time being. Highs before these recent highs could be the point of a big sell-off of other currencies against Yen. We shall see..
  • #26
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  • Apr 19, 2023 5:23am Apr 19, 2023 5:23am
Quoting DaJoWaBa
{quote} I guess you must think there are enough gullible people here to fall for that warped political narrative for you to bother making such a ridiculous comment. It's not a rational statistical investigation. You're just reaching to make a correlation where there is none. It's not remotely close to being scientific methodology. By your measure the USA would have even higher inflation, Germany too and as for many of the East European countries, their figures would be off the charts.
It is highly correlated, but you appear to consider beneficial or at least irrelevant while failing to explain the reasons for the inflation and the projected recession.
  • #27
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  • Apr 19, 2023 6:15am Apr 19, 2023 6:15am
Quoting Guest
Lots of debate but the answer is straight up easy to anyone living in UK. The inflation is stubborn & wont go down because our supermarkets are in ripoff mode. They are putting prices up every wk for basic goods on-going. They wont stop because they have a mind set of make the most of this opportunity while they still can. Bank of England is in wimp mode & will likely stop rate raises soon because of fear of crushing the already ponzi house market.
BoE doesn't control rates; inflation is one thing only, too much money V goods and services.
The yield on UK Gov bonds is in strong up move, which drives retail rates.

Milton Friedman famously said, “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon in the sense that it is and can be produced only by a more rapid increase in the quantity of money than in output.
#doyourownanalysisordietryin
  • #28
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  • Apr 19, 2023 6:26am Apr 19, 2023 6:26am
Quoting Guest
{quote} I advise you not to buy Yen, yet! It's clear that recent highs are going to be taken out. Probably going to see a retest of these highs and then price will continue going up for the time being. Highs before these recent highs could be the point of a big sell-off of other currencies against Yen. We shall see..
usually when it looks too obvious and the shorts are feeling unbearable pain thats when the market reverses. this filthy market and its dirty games
  • #29
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  • Apr 19, 2023 6:33am Apr 19, 2023 6:33am
Quoting DaJoWaBa
{quote} Inflation is and has been high BUT real wages have been behind the curve (and some 4-5% less than the RoI), which has been showing up in poor retail figures and many businesses will now be taking hits to margins rather than just the initial response of raising prices. Although unemployment is historically still very low, the real wage and margin reductions are in themselves a fundamental lagging inflation reducing force, which can be expected to show up in the figures soon. The rapid rise in inflation from about a year ago due to a) global...
yea, but that's still hot wage rises, and pensions, benefits, or anything linked to inflation just went up 10%.
There's NO WAY inflation will fall to target this year as projected by the BoE dummies imo.
#doyourownanalysisordietryin
  • #30
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  • Apr 19, 2023 6:40am Apr 19, 2023 6:40am
Quoting swagtrading
{quote} Higher than forecast means more inflation than what was being priced in by the market. Further look at this post: https://www.cryptocraft.com/news/121...3#post14399233
The response rather reality was based on low forecast for almost all the data.

A Forecast of 10.3 would have shown as red, but because forecast was 9.8, the actual of 10.1 suddenly look tradeable

In reality most of the figures lowered against the previous ones.

Forecast somehow have a role in determining reactions
  • #31
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  • Apr 19, 2023 6:43am Apr 19, 2023 6:43am
Quoting DaJoWaBa
{quote} but an interest rate of Inflation-plus-1 or 2%. That would force the interest rate to be reactive to the slightest tick and force all investments...
That is the system the free market work to. What holds rates down are expectations, the new threat of more QE and outright confidence in the central bank.
They look forward in years when selling debt.
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  • #32
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  • Edited 8:29am Apr 19, 2023 7:18am | Edited 8:29am
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The rate direction is up.
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  • #33
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  • Apr 19, 2023 7:25am Apr 19, 2023 7:25am
Anyone can tell me why GU is still down with this news
  • #34
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  • Apr 19, 2023 8:53am Apr 19, 2023 8:53am
Quoting Bones
{quote} yea, but that's still hot wage rises, and pensions, benefits, or anything linked to inflation just went up 10%. There's NO WAY inflation will fall to target this year as projected by the BoE dummies imo.
Yep - my state pension and my govt. works pension went up. So some good came of this inflation hike
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #35
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  • Apr 19, 2023 9:25am Apr 19, 2023 9:25am
Quoting readme
{quote} It is highly correlated, but you appear to consider beneficial or at least irrelevant while failing to explain the reasons for the inflation and the projected recession.
The War in Ukraine is a major factor in global inflation and especially so on the continent of Europe but the UK RoI is not due to the UK supporting Ukraine any more or less than all the other European/Western nations.
If you took the time to read the reports or do some research you'd already know that the UK issues have mainly been 1) food inflation, due to supply shortages, and 2) energy supplies in a reactive market due to the UK's preponderance of natural gas in the energy mix when the infrastructure was geared up to be JIT and with little storage. The UK received a relatively small proportion of gas from Russia both before and certainly after the war started but is nevertheless impacted by Spot Market global rates.
Of course, energy pricing is at the root of it all.
I stand by my original assertion. If you think that there is any correlation then you jump through the hoops to explain exactly how so. Take an example: if Spanish tomatoes supply gets stopped because of energy prices and crop failure and resupply only starts if at 25% more, who or how is someone getting in on the process to apply extra pricing to the UK because, like Spain, the UK is supporting Ukraine. It's pure nonsense. The tomatoes don't come from Russia.
  • #36
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  • Edited 3:52pm Apr 19, 2023 10:02am | Edited 3:52pm
[quote=Blessed-man;14399689]{quote} Forecast somehow have a role in determining reactions[/quote
Because it's nowhere near the central bank or OBR projection, inflation should be slowing at the same rate it went up from January.
But it's flat double-digit.
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  • #37
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  • Apr 19, 2023 10:55am Apr 19, 2023 10:55am
Quoting Bones
{quote} Because it's nowhere near the central bank or OBR projection, inflation should be slowing at the same rate it went up from January. But it's flat double-digit. {image}
I accept/agree with most of your statements on this feed but are you sure that anyone could expect a rate of deflation to be the same as the rate of inflation (rhetorical Q)?
I suspect that the reality is that people in the supply/demand curve won't want to give up any marginal increment at the same rate that the shock supply issue forced upon them unless it's squeezed out of them with new opposite shocks.
We are in agreement that inflation tends to be much more sticky than anyone expects and only enforced negative shocks, or proper competition, are going to change that.
  • #38
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  • Apr 19, 2023 12:12pm Apr 19, 2023 12:12pm
Quoting DaJoWaBa
{quote} I accept/agree with most of your statements on this feed but are you sure that anyone could expect a rate of deflation to be the same as the rate of inflation (rhetorical Q)? I suspect that the reality is that people in the supply/demand curve won't want to give up any marginal increment at the same rate that the shock supply issue forced upon them unless it's squeezed out of them with new opposite shocks. We are in agreement that inflation tends to be much more sticky than anyone expects and only enforced negative shocks, or proper competition,...
I'm just repeating the chart projections of the BoE and OBR(above); you can see it was to fall off a cliff at the same rate it went up according to them.
Inflation is a monetary phenomenon; the shocks give a reason for where inflation arises.
How come the oil rally started in March 2020 from $0 to $100 before the war even started?
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  • #39
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  • Apr 20, 2023 4:02am Apr 20, 2023 4:02am
Quoting DaJoWaBa
{quote} Ugh! Ditch that idea straight away. You're trying to make a correlation where there is none. RoI is a comparison with the status either monthly or annually. Unless you've been hiding under a very large rock since 2019, say, I hate to inform you that Brexit comparisons are out of the status comparisons from a month ago and even a year ago. Now, there will be some element of inflation of you're at the end of a logistical chain, for sure, but the % will be very small relative to other factors such as global energy prices and food supplies....
Maybe throw some light on subject.. ?
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Final Eurostat data suggests that the main reason for the UK's relatively high headline #inflation rate is still energy prices, with little difference in food price inflation, or the 'core' rates... (figures shown are harmonized CPI of necessity - for comparison)
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  • #40
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  • Apr 20, 2023 4:36am Apr 20, 2023 4:36am
Quoting RossEdwards
{quote} Maybe throw some light on subject.. ? {image}Final Eurostat data suggests that the main reason for the UK's relatively high headline #inflation rate is still energy prices, with little difference in food price inflation, or the 'core' rates... (figures shown are harmonized CPI of necessity - for comparison)
That is a good, clean piece of statistical comparison evidence. Thanks for that.
It highlights that the main cause of the differential and the high UK monthly/annual RoI is Energy. Whilst Food is high, it's EU-comparable. Energy and Food are very much core items in the mix of any economy.
I was responding to the throwaway claim by the guest that it was due to "Brexit". Brexit WAS a new cost at one point but is now a small component constant in the figures.
I concluded that the 'guest' was either not aware that RoI measures CHANGE in costs over a fixed time period or that they were indeed aware and wanted to shoe-horn in an unrelated component for their political agenda.
  • #41
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  • Apr 20, 2023 9:04am Apr 20, 2023 9:04am
You can pick through those made-up CPI numbers for reasons why? It's so high.
Next week it will be something new.
Any inflationary event will be magnified, sending countries 5x+ their target until a balance is achieved.
There is no difference between 7.7 and 9.1 when dealing with made-up numbers; pointless trying to delve further than it's miles out.
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  • #42
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  • Edited 10:57am Apr 20, 2023 10:28am | Edited 10:57am
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  • #43
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  • Apr 20, 2023 4:55pm Apr 20, 2023 4:55pm
If thats all YOU need to know - hey! good
Then I guess most folk will have noticed that, already. No?

So then, just cant figure... why you bother posting in this conversation at all?.
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  • #44
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  • Apr 21, 2023 8:02am Apr 21, 2023 8:02am
That's all YOU need to know. Then you wouldn't be wrong about inflation so much.
Anyone that believed transitory or supply chains line were proved wrong already, although there are a few of those people kicking around.
You can't unpick data with such human intervention in any fine detail, like the CPI.
It does not measure outright rise in prices it measures someone's opinion on the rises. All of those numbers in your post are basically the same reading as highlighted by my original fast-read graphic V your official readings box.
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