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  • The Employment Situation -- February 2023

    From bls.gov

    Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 311,000 in February, and the unemployment rate edged up to 3.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, retail trade, government, and health care. Employment declined in information and in transportation and warehousing. This news release presents statistics from two monthly surveys. The household survey measures labor force status, including unemployment, by demographic characteristics. The establishment survey measures nonfarm employment, hours, and earnings by industry. For more information about the ... (full story)

Added at 8:40am

  • U.S. economy adds 311,000 jobs in February

    From axios.com

    The U.S. economy added 311,000 jobs in February, the Labor Department said on Friday, continuing a hot hiring streak that has underpinned the country's tight labor market. The unemployment rate edged up to 3.6%, still historically low. Why it matters: Employers continued to add workers to payrolls at a very quick pace — despite months of rising interest rates meant to cool that demand. By the numbers: The unemployment rate bumped up to 3.6% from 3.4%, as layoffs tick up. • The payrolls report showed that the economy added 504,000 jobs in January, 13,000 fewer than the originally reported figure. Meanwhile, gains ... (full story)

Earnings once again lower than forecast and unemployment is rising, trouble is on its way.
This is (complex data) not tradable for today again for now ...lets lookout for p/action
no problem, timing still buy usd
All my analysis is based on Wyckoff Methods
So CPI matter More THAN NFP again f**kin mix data but i make some dollars on my scalp trade...gold...
TuriBinda
NFP is good, but hourly earning isn’t good :'( That’s a key inflation measure!
Market is thinking about ecb rate raise not usa economy
Well isn't this delightful
Quoting rashadali
Market is thinking about ecb rate raise not usa economy
Right. USD now with the mixed concept.
  •  Guest
  • | IP XXX.XXX.45.154
Canadas Rate may be sign of 0.25 from usa
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XXX.143.218
There is no mixed data here. The only thing we had to pay attention to today is if the numbers will be good enough (again) to justify 50bps rate hike.

Clearly, there will be no 50bps rate hike anymore. It's over.

Fed will raise by 25bps and USD should continue to depreciate today. Slight pricing in of 50bps rate hike should be removed today.

CPI Y/Y forecast also doesn't help. Forecast is 6.0% from actual 6.4%.

Recession is still not here, so money flowing into USD shouldn't be the case yet.
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All my analysis is based on Wyckoff Methods
Check out Usd/Jpy pair
Beginners Luck
Flipping E/U to long. SVB bankruptcy will definitely spook the FED into doing 25bp.
"Its tentative my friends, always tentative..."
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Quoting goldieboy
Check out Usd/Jpy pair
looks like the start of a market sell off
Quoting chemosi
{quote} looks like the start of a market sell off
Really a farewell party
Beginners Luck
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XX.180.123
Quoting chemosi
{quote} looks like the start of a market sell off
CPI is on Tuesday. This “reversal” is the market setting up for it. USD long covering. Of course results of CPI notwithstanding, if it comes in hot the market would be in a prime position for buy low (USD)
nfp good, unemploy good, salary still rise 0,2% bcs previous already rise 0,6% . for me, over all, usa data are good.
  •  Guest
  • | IP XXX.XXX.16.5
Then why the massive sell off. Is it a pump for a bugger dump if CPIs come in hotter ? The banks are really exiting the weaklings and high leverage small accounts.
Quoting Guest
{quote} CPI is on Tuesday. This “reversal” is the market setting up for it. USD long covering. Of course results of CPI notwithstanding, if it comes in hot the market would be in a prime position for buy low (USD)
Very true.
In my opinion, next week USD will be bought against commodity currencies...
Also next week will be the second week of simultaneous EUR,CHF and JPY strengthening
and the weekly chart of S&P 500 (SPX) is technically bearish...
Quoting Guest
Then why the massive sell off. Is it a pump for a bugger dump if CPIs come in hotter ? The banks are really exiting the weaklings and high leverage small accounts.
"Nasdaq To Suffer Friday As SVB Matters More Than US Jobs Data"
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/na...e-us-jobs-data
"...The most obvious victims will be Nasdaq and crypto, but the sentiment spillover will reach across all assets....
Strong data will be bad for equities due to intensifying a liquidity crisis, and weak data is alarming for stocks as it will heighten bankruptcy and sharp slowdown concerns."
as expected powell testimony last tuesday is just a setup why sort of sell off happened then this NFP is expected to get lower data than last NFP spike FED has no balls to increase more rate hike Michael Bury is correct collapse is inevitable
Meanwhile the Silicon Valley Bank in California just went under, with CA regulators having closed the bank. People were selling off their Treasury bonds,
Watch the Stock market fall from this.
Quoting Guest
There is no mixed data here. The only thing we had to pay attention to today is if the numbers will be good enough (again) to justify 50bps rate hike. Clearly, there will be no 50bps rate hike anymore. It's over. Fed will raise by 25bps and USD should continue to depreciate today. Slight pricing in of 50bps rate hike should be removed today. CPI Y/Y forecast also doesn't help. Forecast is 6.0% from actual 6.4%. Recession is still not here, so money flowing into USD shouldn't be the case yet.
Stronger economy higher rate rise, isn't that what Powell hint?
  •  Guest
  • | IP XXXX:4b57:eed5
thats was most likely a bluff
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XXX.110.209
Quoting Jolita
{quote} Stronger economy higher rate rise, isn't that what Powell hint?
The thing about Powell is that he is way too cautious.
He wants the inflation to come down to 2% or whatever, while still maintaining low unemployment rate which spiked yesterday. Powell knows unemployment rate bottomed at 3.4% and seeing it at 3.6% now will definitely make him not rush with interest rate hikes. There is no doubt in my mind they will go with 25bps rate hike and then decide on the pace when next NFP report comes out in April.

Unless we see CPI Y/Y coming at 6.4% or even higher, the question of whether Fed will hike by 50bps or 25bps is already answered.

I think he will be VERY careful from this point on, especially after that exchange with Sen. Kennedy.

So, while the numbers came out hot, it's not good enough for Powell to push for 50bps rate hike in my opinion.

Had unemployment rate stayed at 3.4% then 50bps would be a sure deal on March 22nd.

As it stands now, no.

I am seeing GBP/USD reaching 1.215 and likely 1.227 next week.

Also, pay attention to JPY. My system suggests we could be seeing a real drop on JPY pairs soon.

Currently Short GBP/JPY from 164.000.

Take care J!

TheWolf
Quoting Guest
thats was most likely a bluff
His concern is that if the recovery happens too quickly the economy will overheat and inflation will return. Didn't express himself very well!
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