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Outlook 2023: It’s not every day that Europe gets lucky
Inflation and the tightening of financing conditions have led everyone to expect some extent of a recession this year. The US is expected to slow down because a large savings buffer and a vibrant job market make the US consumer able to withstand more expensive goods and services. This is an enviable position compared to the recession anticipated in Europe. The consensus is for two consecutive quarters of negative growth in the winter of 2022-23 and a -0.1% growth for the year as a whole. Our team has been even more bearish since the start of the war in Ukraine, pricing in a full 1% decline in gross domestic product ... (full story)