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  • UMich Jan US prelim consumer sentiment 64.6 vs 60.5 expected

    From forexlive.com

    Consumer sentiment data from the University of Michigan • Prior was 59.7. • Current conditions 68.6 vs 60.0 expected (prior 59.4). • Expectations 62.0 vs 59.5 expected (prior was 59.9). • One-year inflation expectations 4.0% vs 4.4% prior. • 5-year inflation expectations 3.0% vs 2.9% prior. This survey is nothing more than a barometer of political sentiment and gasoline prices. That said, the Fed watches the inflation number closely and it was a contribution to the sudden switch to more-aggressive hiking in June (which is funny because it was later revised down). The one-year number will certainly be ... (full story)

Added at 10:09am

  • UMich Inflation Expectations Plunge To 20-Month Lows

    From zerohedge.com

    Once again, the most crucial aspect of the UMich sentiment survey is respondents' forecasts for inflation. After yesterday's 0.1% MoM decline in CPI, hope remains high that we are past peak inflation and this morning's UMich data seemingly confirms that as 1-year inflation expectations plunged to 4.0% (vs 4.3% exp), even though medium-term expectations rose modestly (to 3.0% from 2.9%). That is the lowest 1-year outlook since April 2021. But once again, we remind readers that UMich itself admits the uncertainty around this forecast is extremely high. Back to the headline sentiment signals, UMich was expected to show ... (full story)

This will just convince Powell to keep hiking more aggressively than the market is anticipating. Higher consumer sentiment usually translates to sustained or more spending which will complicate the Fed's attempts to stymie inflation.
Whatever may be news, in fovour or against. Eurusd always goes up for last one month.
Quoting kvmystic
Whatever may be news, in fovour or against. Eurusd always goes up for last one month.
No one can predict what the market will do next. Your prediction should be taken with a grain of salt.
Quoting kvmystic
Whatever may be news, in fovour or against. Eurusd always goes up for last one month.
The EURUSD might revisit the 1.05 area within days before going long.
Almost all usa data r good from last week. But too many assumption lead opinions that usa bla bla bla and should usd weak..and again bla bla bla...data is data, if data is good that mean good, if bad that mean bad. Now Im really confuse, wihich one is a reliable news source.
Quoting BaliBoyz80
Almost all usa data r good from last week. But too many assumption lead opinions that usa bla bla bla and should usd weak..and again bla bla bla...data is data, if data is good that mean good, if bad that mean bad. Now Im really confuse, wihich one is a reliable news source.
That's why i support @raklian that forex market is not easy to predict.
Quoting Horiyomy
{quote} That's why i support @raklian that forex market is not easy to predict.
Not always the case. i think almost everyone knows yen is going stronger. The same way it got weaker last year. Gotta love the japanese bullet train up and down
Quoting raklian
{quote} No one can predict what the market will do next. Your prediction should be taken with a grain of salt.
IMHO, Yes.
From FF, nearly 15 years ago..

Quoting amylase
no model of porjecting exchange rate movements is significantly superior to tossing a coin. "The exceptions to this conclusion are those few cases of successful speculation in which governments have tried and failed to support a particular exchange rate. Nonetheless, despite extensive efforts on the part of analysts, to my knowledge, no model projecting directional movements in exchange rates is significantly superior to tossing a coin. I am aware that, of the thousands who try, some are quite successful. So are winners of coin-tossing contests....
..response from @Merlin.. (founder member FF -joined 2004)
Quoting merlin
great quote. .... central banker telling the quants that their systems dont work even though i know with my own eyes that mechanical systems CAN make high returns, i totally agree with Greenspan. he is NOT saying its impossible to make money in the currency market with a mechanical system. the key part of his phrase is "no model projecting directional movements". but you dont have to predict the direction to make money, and most of the profitable quants i know arent even trying to predict direction.
Yes .. @raklian and @Horniyomy ... 2023.. IMHO Nothing has changed..

and yep, @jordanvic, IMHO there are certain economic fundamentals that, properly understood, can allow med/long term directional predictions/positions with a high probability of success.
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