US Average Hourly Earnings steals thunder in NFP jobs data
The headline Non-Farm Payrolls print for December showed that 223,000 jobs were added to the economy vs an expectation of +200,000 and a higher revised November print of +256,000. In addition, the Unemployment Rate dropped to 3.5% vs an expectation of 3.7% and a November print of 3.6%. By themselves, the Fed should be concerned about these two pieces of data as the Fed is looking for the Unemployment Rate to climb, which would help cool the economy and slow inflation. However, it was the Average Hourly earnings print that stole the show in the jobs data release. The MoM print was 0.3% vs an expectation of 0.4% and a ... (full story)
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I am particularly pleased to be here today for multiple reasons. I think most of us feel some nostalgic pull to these meetings, though I do not think I want to revisit the frantic interview cycle ever again. These meetings allow us to meet and reconnect with colleagues, hear about new and valuable research, and have in-depth discussions on the subtler, more nuanced aspects of economics. I hope to do that today with my co-panelists on a subject that has my and the Federal Open Market Committee's full attention: inflation. I want to use my time to outline the unique set of challenges facing policymakers and academics today as well as how we can better understand inflation dynamics in this new environment, including by looking at novel data sources.1 tweet at 11:15am: COOK: FED MUST ADVANCE ITS ABILITY TO FORECAST INFLATION RISKS tweet at 11:16am: FED'S COOK: DESPITE RECENT ENCOURAGING SIGNS, INFLATION REMAINS FAR TOO HIGH AND OF GREAT CONCERN. tweet at 11:17am: IN REMARKS PREPARED FOR DELIVERY AT AN ECONOMICS CONFERENCE, COOK DOES NOT INDICATE A PREFERENCE FOR THE NEXT RATE INCREASE.
The Canadian dollar strengthened against its US counterpart on Friday, recouping its earlier decline, as investors raised bets on further tightening by the Bank of Canada after ...
The US economy added 223k jobs in December, a little above the 203k consensus but there was a net 28k of downward revisions to the past two months. meaning we are broadly in line ...
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tweet at 12:19pm: Fedís Barkin: More Gradual Interest Rate Path Should Limit Harm To Economy - Makes Sense To Steer More Deliberately On Rates In Context Of Policy Lags tweet at 12:19pm: Fedís Barkin: Studies Forecast 6-12 Months Before Pullbacks In Demand Quiet The Rate Of Inflation - Last Two Months Of Inflation Reports Are A Step In Right Direction; However, Median Stayed High tweet at 12:15pm: BARKIN: FED CANNOT REPEAT STOP-START CYCLE OF THE 1970S IN INFLATION BATTLE tweet at 12:17pm: FEDíS BARKIN: MOST FIRMS STILL SEEING SOLID DEMAND BUT RECOGNIZE FED ACTIONS RAISE RISK OF DOWNTURN, SO THEY ARE BRACING FOR SLOWDOWN #recession #FederalReserve
On December 28th, I discussed a potential bearish fakeout from NZDUSD at the 0.6400 handle that suggested weakness. The idea was to watch for a short opportunity at 0.6400 on a ...