There is actually something called dot plot tracking where people track what governors. Some people have lots of time on their hands!
FOMC Minutes: Several Officials Noted Dot Plot Tracking ‘Notably Above Market’, Officials Cited Risk Inflation Could Be ‘Modestly Persistent’
Added at 2:05pm
FOMC Minutes: Risk of Inflation Accelerating Faster Than Anticipated 'Key Factor' in Shaping Policy --WSJ— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) January 4, 2023
FOMC Minutes: Staff Economic Forecast Not as Weak as at November Meeting --WSJ
Added at 2:06pm
The FOMC minutes provide next to no discussion around how much officials want to raise rates at the February meeting.— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) January 4, 2023
But officials did shout out their concern that an "unwarranted easing in financial conditions" could "complicate" their inflation fight https://t.co/Xv0f0qaxK5 pic.twitter.com/aQd5UbOt7n
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The manager pro tem turned first to a discussion of developments in financial markets. Following several months of tightening, financial conditions eased over the period as investor concerns about global risks edged lower and incoming data showed nascent signs of a moderation in inflationary pressures. Central bank communications signaling a slower pace of policy rate increases appeared to contribute to improved sentiment. Measures of implied volatility across financial markets declined somewhat from the elevated levels observed in October. Consistent with the decline in volatility, model-based measures suggested that a drop in term premiums accounted for much of the decline in Treasury yields over the period. Equity markets moved higher. However, equity market contacts noted risks to growth ahead, and earnings expectations for coming quarters had been marked down. In foreign exchange markets, moderating concerns about the potential for highly elevated U.S. interest rates spurred a depreciation in the foreign exchange value of the dollar. In other market developments, the manager pro tem noted the failure of a prominent crypto-asset exchange. While the spillovers from this situation had been significant among other crypto lenders and exchanges, the post at 2:00pm: [DB] Fed Minutes: Participants Welcomed Inflation Drops in October and November, but Concurred It Would Take 'Substantially More Evidence' of Progress to Be Confident of a Sustained Downward Path: RTRS post at 2:00pm: FED MINUTES: PARTICIPANTS GENERALLY INDICATED UPSIDE RISKS TO INFLATION REMAINED A KEY FACTOR IN SHAPING POLICY OUTLOOK - https://t.co/wXVagA44VK post at 2:01pm: FED OFFICIALS CITED RISK INFLATION COULD BE MORE PERSISTENT A COUPLE OF FED OFFICIALS SAW INFLATION RISKS AS MORE BALANCED FED WARY OF AN `UNWARRANTED' EASING IN FINANCIAL CONDITIONS post at 2:01pm: FOMC Minutes: Officials Said Further Rate Increases Would Be Necessary --WSJ FOMC Minutes: Officials Agreed Rate Cuts Shouldn't Happen in 2023 --WSJ FOMC Minutes: Officials Emphasized Need for 'Flexibility and Optionality' in Policy Decisions --WSJ
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