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Added at 6:14am

Added at 6:14am

Added at 6:14am

Added at 6:14am

Stability is one thing, But where is the growth going to come from to stop the pound from heading to the ditch again as it was prior to the 23rd
Don't see the markets jumping up in glee with the announcement. GBPUSD has decided to take a slide downwards
BUy Pound especially GBP/JPY Rally for the long term.
Quoting Ftmofx
BUy Pound especially GBP/JPY Rally for the long term.
I don't know what you are seeing, but I don't see it
Please explain why you see a BUy
Wake up and smell the roses people. Its the same people making these statements who are profiting big alongside the market makers. We will miss Kwasi Kwarteng. lol
Quoting MaverickCT
{quote} I don't know what you are seeing, but I don't see it Please explain why you see a BUy
I see many issues from fundamentally, Technically, and price action which carry the GBP/JPY for long way-Bullish
Unfortunately, GBP is already at the level it was before the announcement.

Total reversal is accepting a mistake was made, the PM should apologise for causing heartaches for those that had substantial losses due to the whipsaw movement.

One man's meat is another man's poison, some smiled to the bank and some are still smiling
Who knows what the market wants? I doubt the markets know what they want either, apart form what they think they don't want. Maybe fundamentalism is so much in the minority that like government debt, speculation and technicals squeeze out any chance of long-term strategies. The market may be happy if death by a thousand cuts still allows money to made on the journey. Discuss.
Quoting Blessed-man
Unfortunately, GBP is already at the level it was before the announcement. Total reversal is accepting a mistake was made, the PM should apologise for causing heartaches for those that had substantial losses due to the whipsaw movement. One man's meat is another man's poison, some smiled to the bank and some are still smiling
If you think it will go reversal, you should prepare for the whole loss.
Quoting Ftmofx
BUy Pound especially GBP/JPY Rally for the long term.
Usd strength will kill your longs think twice!
Quoting DayTrader30
{quote} Usd strength will kill your longs think twice!
USD/JPY will be soft from 149-150 level for the Pivot issue. For another big rally, it needs some correction, better correction to 141
Quoting MaverickCT
Stability is one thing, But where is the growth going to come from to stop the pound from heading to the ditch again as it was prior to the 23rd
Keep Brexit but rejoin Single Market?
Warning: A Dangerous Subversive: 1% of comments CoCed
Quoting RossEdwards
{quote} Keep Brexit but rejoin Single Market?
I admire the fact that you seldom face down an opportunity to chuck in a Brexit/EU comment but I'd say "No!" to your suggestion.
I'm not coming at it from a political perspective. I think it's far more fundamental than any paper-based, bureaucratic, protection-racket/illusory free market fix at the edges (If there was the will, automating or digitalising the huge majority of it would be an easy fix too, as it really, really has to be a lot easier than sending a missile to hit a small asteroid millions of miles away!).
Has the EU stopped USA, China or even Russia from selling hugely profitable products or services to the EU, considering that none of those countries are in a Free Market and certainly not part of the ESM? The answer is "No". It comes down to market advantage and USP's and your other favourite GB-bash would be closer to the truth: that the UK doesn't produce enough goods and services that other people want.
The UK should be focusing on future goods and services and the government should be doing everything it can to facilitate that process without getting in the way by attempting to choose champions. Things like Freeports and Investment Zones are such strategies, for instance. Why not go all out for producing excess (green) energy? Apart from making energy-intensive industrial competitiveness, maybe excess could be exported to the continent?
There are lots of answers to the question which don't involve having to be part of a restrictive business climate.
Quoting MaverickCT
Stability is one thing, But where is the growth going to come from to stop the pound from heading to the ditch again as it was prior to the 23rd
growth isn't Uk specific
stupidity of those in charge is .
#doyourownanalysisordietryin
Quoting Bones
{quote} growth isn't Uk specific stupidity of those in charge is .
.
GBP/JPY rally towards 195.881
Quoting Bones
{quote} growth isn't Uk specific stupidity of those in charge is .
"Growth isn't UK specific" - what a bleak picture you paint. So who is steering this homogenous globalized economic ship? What's the point of UK politicians? If they have no point, then surely anyone in power is implicitly redundant and prone to stupidity?
Quoting DaJoWaBa
{quote} I admire the fact that you seldom face down an opportunity to chuck in a Brexit/EU comment but I'd say "No!" to your suggestion. I'm not coming at it from a political perspective. I think it's far more fundamental than any paper-based, bureaucratic, protection-racket/illusory free market fix at the edges (If there was the will, automating or digitalising the huge majority of it would be an easy fix too, as it really, really has to be a lot easier than sending a missile to hit a small asteroid millions of miles away!). Has the EU...
Interesting response.

The UK has a growth and productivity problem. and as I understand, the current disastrous neoLibertarian Truss/KK/ERG MiniBudget was a gamble to recover Growth. Truss even invented a boogieman "AntiGrowth Coalltion" to describe anyone who opposed her and her cronies?
Growth became the holy grail. ?
Natural then surely to ask where has the growth gone?

Ironic then that it was the same ERG/Tufton St/ Libertarian wing of the Tory government, with the assistance of the UKIP/DUP that engineered the single most damaging AntiGrowth event in last decade ..the TCA delivered by Boris Johnson in December 2020, that cut UK access to the EU Single Market, and which according to OBR projections has strangled a 4% loss in growth.

I DIDNT raise the issue of Brexit per se. Im revisiting the VERSION of Brexit which was designed and engineered by the same ERG/Tufton St/ crew and delivered by Boris Johnson and Frost nearly 2 years ago, that was totally different from that promised by Boris Johnson 6 years. (Quote: "There will continue to be free trade, and access to the single market,”) A version that IMHO has brought seriously growth-inhibiting economic consequences exactly as Treasury, the OBR, The LSE, Peterson etc all predicted and warned about. A recent article in the New Statesman highlighted this noting Britain’s GDP per head growth at just 3.8 per cent since the referendum, while the EU’s was 8.5 per cent,

So sorry my friend for "Chucking in" a comment that highlights an unpalatable reality of how far this government has its head up its arse or that pointing out how much of this growth problem is a self inflicted wound.
Warning: A Dangerous Subversive: 1% of comments CoCed
Quoting RossEdwards
{quote} Interesting response. The UK has a growth and productivity problem. and as I understand, the current disastrous neoLibertarian Truss/KK/ERG MiniBudget was a gamble to recover Growth. Truss even invented a boogieman "AntiGrowth Coalltion" to describe anyone who opposed her and her cronies? Growth became the holy grail. ? Natural then surely to ask where has the growth gone? Ironic then that it was the same ERG/Tufton St/ Libertarian wing of the Tory government, with the assistance of the UKIP/DUP that engineered the single most...
I wasn't commenting on what has happened in the past, other than your firm belief that the EU and the ESM is the absolute, that the UK ballsed up and you never shy away from stating it again and again. That's fair enough for you to believe that but it's not the answer to everything. It's not the elixir.
I'm not going to be swayed by hypothetical estimations either. It is what it is. Growth is always dependent on what base point in place and time one chooses from which to start.
I was making the point that any supposed hypothetical elixir that so many believe to be the ESM would merely be a temporary blip and entirely related to whatever Growth rates do or don't happen in the EU. The UK FUNDAMENTALLY has to get aligned to produce more goods and services that the world wants. That's the same for any country whether in or out of any bloc, which is why I stated the single market is a side issue, not the main reason.
One can very easily argue that the political machinery of UK's failure to accept the referendum result and to try to nullify/spoil that result was the start of a new slippery slope. I've yet to see (at a political level) anyone actually properly embracing the potential and promote the seeking of new opportunities. That the Conservative Party has come to this is utterly shameful, and the opposition were no better using it as a tool to aid their lust for power! And the damage to this country by much of the squabbling since 2016 has been significant.

But we are where we are and somebody needs to step up and start putting us back onto a firmer footing. I'm sure the markets would have much less concerns were HMG borrowing money to finance infrastructure / industrial stimulation and growth related projects rather than unfunded tax give-aways (that can't be afforded even in wild halucingenic dreamworlds). These at least have a clear expectaion that tax receipts would in time rise along with increased economic activity. Additionally some relief to the public coffers through reduced costs of the UK burgeoning benefits system due to more people being more economically active is the flipside from such approaches.

We should have energy security, decent infrastructure, decent transport systems, decent communication systems, decent education and decent healthcare. So many of these things have simply been sold off to people (often foreign investors) whose sole interest is to make profits and receive dividends. I always thought Braxit was supposed to be an opportunity to break the torrid cycle we were in but sadly.... you know the rest
Quoting DaJoWaBa
{quote} I wasn't commenting on what has happened in the past, other than your firm belief that the EU and the ESM is the absolute, that the UK ballsed up and you never shy away from stating it again and again. That's fair enough for you to believe that but it's not the answer to everything. It's not the elixir. I'm not going to be swayed by hypothetical estimations either. It is what it is. Growth is always dependent on what base point in place and time one chooses from which to start. I was making the point that any supposed hypothetical elixir...
I don't think for two seconds that this new idea the EU has is a solution to anything. Even within the EU itself there are massive fissures that can-not easily be reconciled (if at all!)
To get back to being an independant trading nation requires us to be trading i.e. exporting stuff and that means giving international customers what they want/need and getting in front again technologically to do just that. It's a race and the competition is both stiff and has a head start in many cases.
Quoting RossEdwards
{quote} Interesting response. The UK has a growth and productivity problem. and as I understand, the current disastrous neoLibertarian Truss/KK/ERG MiniBudget was a gamble to recover Growth. Truss even invented a boogieman "AntiGrowth Coalltion" to describe anyone who opposed her and her cronies? Growth became the holy grail. ? Natural then surely to ask where has the growth gone? Ironic then that it was the same ERG/Tufton St/ Libertarian wing of the Tory government, with the assistance of the UKIP/DUP that engineered the single most...
There are many things that you and I don't agree on and that is healthy, but that the government has its head up its rear end isn't one of them.
Quoting nbfx
{quote} I don't think for two seconds that this new idea the EU has is a solution to anything. Even within the EU itself there are massive fissures that can-not easily be reconciled (if at all!) To get back to being an independant trading nation requires us to be trading i.e. exporting stuff and that means giving international customers what they want/need and getting in front again technologically to do just that. It's a race and the competition is both stiff and has a head start in many cases.
Yes, precisely my earlier point.
Quoting nbfx
One can very easily argue that the political machinery of UK's failure to accept the referendum result and to try to nullify/spoil that result was the start of a new slippery slope. I've yet to see (at a political level) anyone actually properly embracing the potential and promote the seeking of new opportunities. That the Conservative Party has come to this is utterly shameful, and the opposition were no better using it as a tool to aid their lust for power! And the damage to this country by much of the squabbling since 2016 has been significant....
Yes, I agree but I suppose we just have to wonder what the focus could have been without Covid or Putler's War.
Quoting nbfx
{quote} There are many things that you and I don't agree on and that is healthy, but that the government has its head up its rear end isn't one of them.
I prefer to be positive.. There are many things we DO agree on.
However if my characterization of the UK government as having its head up its arse, is undiplomatic, its only because I find it difficult to characterize 12 years of uninterrupted rule culminating in this most recent shit-show, in a diplomatic way. Ill put it on my to-do list.
Warning: A Dangerous Subversive: 1% of comments CoCed
Quoting ww3361
{quote} "Growth isn't UK specific" - what a bleak picture you paint. So who is steering this homogenous globalized economic ship? What's the point of UK politicians? If they have no point, then surely anyone in power is implicitly redundant and prone to stupidity?
If you allow governments to spend huge sums without any actual democratic consult, the stupidity rises to all new levels in all countries that indulge.
Look how far the rudderless UK government are, completely unrecognisable, loose/wasteful with newly printed money.
I would suggest the UK is not alone.
#doyourownanalysisordietryin
To Hunt or not to Hunt? Gee - what a question!
Quoting Bones
{quote} If you allow governments to spend huge sums without any actual democratic consult, the stupidity rises to all new levels in all countries that indulge. Look how far the rudderless UK government are, completely unrecognisable, loose/wasteful with newly printed money. I would suggest the UK is not alone.
Sounds like Putin's propaganda!?
Quoting RossEdwards
{quote} I prefer to be positive.. There are many things we DO agree on. However if my characterization of the UK government as having its head up its arse, is undiplomatic, its only because I find it difficult to characterize 12 years of uninterrupted rule culminating in this most recent shit-show, in a diplomatic way. Ill put it on my to-do list.
That is indeed something we DO agree on. In our office we all agree its gone so far outside the realms of belief we're actually not really surprised by any of the calamities. That's a bad situation in anyone's book!

Talking of which - we run a sweepstake on which Politician is going to F----up next!

Added. WE also took bet on who would be the next PM. I chose Penny Mordaunt. We all LOST!
Quoting DaJoWaBa
{quote} I wasn't commenting on what has happened in the past, other than your firm belief that the EU and the ESM is the absolute, that the UK ballsed up and you never shy away from stating it again and again. That's fair enough for you to believe that but it's not the answer to everything. It's not the elixir. I'm not going to be swayed by hypothetical estimations either. It is what it is. Growth is always dependent on what base point in place and time one chooses from which to start. I was making the point that any supposed hypothetical elixir...
Thank you for your thoughtful response, but im both surprised and disappointed that you have not commented on the issue that I raised. That of renegotiating the CTA and consideration of membership of EFTA., neither of which would breach the Brexit mandate voted by the UK electorate in 2016, while significantly improving the UKs growth prospects? Its surely clear by now that there are NO big productive FTAs to fuel trade expansion replacing lost Single Market access, out there, that loss of single market membership has denied the UK, and that dont involve unacceptable compromises to basic UK standards is an illusion.
Brexit cant and shouldn't be challenged but the CTA can, should and need to be, given that the Boris/Frost CTA, has left Britain a “less trade intensive economy” because the nation has “missed out on much of the recovery in global trade,” Not my words ..that of OBR.

The IFS dealt with this back in 2016. Worth revisiting given that Boris repeatedly and categorically promised in 2016 that Brexit would not involve losing access to the Single Market.
Warning: A Dangerous Subversive: 1% of comments CoCed
Quoting RossEdwards
{quote} Thank you for your thoughtful response, but im both surprised and disappointed that you have not commented on the issue that I raised. That of renegotiating the CTA and consideration of membership of EFTA., neither of which would breach the Brexit mandate voted by the UK electorate in 2016, while significantly improving the UKs growth prospects? Its surely clear by now that there are NO big productive FTAs to fuel trade expansion replacing lost Single Market access, out there, that loss of single market membership has denied the UK, and...
I think one of the biggest obstacles - even fears if you like - is that we went down that rout before and it morphed into something entirely diffent. I'm sure there are many that are wary that this (while on the surface be a route to an FTA with EU) could be very much a back-door ploy to reintegrate UK and intergate others that have been resistant to EU. If you like the start of a two speed Europe leading to a much more integrated creature at the command of Brussels. It then begs the question of if EU are prepared to shape an FTA by one means then why not by another? Could the answer be control?

BTW I've never been against an FTA with Europe...
Take your points 100%.
Have a look at this. IFS 2016,
https://ifs.org.uk/publications/eu-single-market-value-membership-versus-access-uk
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Quoting RossEdwards
Take your points 100%. Have a look at this. IFS 2016, https://ifs.org.uk/publications/eu-s...rsus-access-uk
Yes- we've seen it thanks.

These are things we've discussed and discussed and discussed again, and we all believe that had there been an option of keeping the whole free trade area but ditching the rest via some kind of broader trade partnership grouping that rather than voting to leave completely, peeps would have voted overwhelmingly for that option. That it was not an option We think is largely down to the EU, because many of the issues that pushed Cameron into the in/out referendum could have been side-stepped. We also believe that had that happened others would have joined on the back of it. But we think EU was so affronted that anyone would dream of leaving that pragmatism wasn't on the agenda, but rather (our self-proclained friend Macron among others) stated publicly many time that UK should be punished for daring to do this presuamably to deter any others from thinking similarly.

Sadly any kind of pragmatic solution simply wasn't available.
Quoting RossEdwards
{quote} Thank you for your thoughtful response, but im both surprised and disappointed that you have not commented on the issue that I raised. That of renegotiating the CTA and consideration of membership of EFTA., neither of which would breach the Brexit mandate voted by the UK electorate in 2016, while significantly improving the UKs growth prospects? Its surely clear by now that there are NO big productive FTAs to fuel trade expansion replacing lost Single Market access, out there, that loss of single market membership has denied the UK, and...
Any Trade Agreement is preferential to none.
There is no such thing as a Free Trade Agreement. Hypothetically there is but reality would never allow it. If it was just a case of the degree of subscription to an economic club, counter-balanced by the size of tariffs, with a sliding scale on the spectrum, then one can gauge the benefits and disadvantages but the EU is set up in such a way that, really, it's all-in or all-out. That IS understandable for the European continent and I am certain it has been of huge benefit, to the continent. However, the all-in means subjugating all decisions and being shackled to all rules and courts.
The N.I. border demonstrates exactly that issue: there doesn't appear to be anything in the middle of the spectrum that works and there is absolutely no desire on the part of the EU to make a success of it, as there is little obligation or desire to make things easier for the UK. That's not actually finger-pointing but a statement of reality and recognition of the aspirations of the EU. It's understandable but self-defeating. The political issues and allegiances came to predominate. I am not in the least surprised that whoever took on the challenge will have failed to produce/agree on something clean and fit-for-purpose, whether accommodative May or more belligerent Frost/Johnson.
The EU and its various 'Trade' derivations remain, in principal, a necessary political union and instinctively protectionist, which is where the problem lies for the UK.
As stated earlier, the remedy for the UK is to do what it should have done a few years ago, if Covid and Putler hadn't disrupted the balance and left the UK having to fight to stay still instead of moving forward. It sapped the political momentum. The case still remains that the UK will have the advantage to make quick decisions and move faster. At some point the politicians, soon, hopefully, will stop scoring own goals or making bad decisions, and get on the open road to a better future.
Quoting DaJoWaBa
{quote} Any Trade Agreement is preferential to none. There is no such thing as a Free Trade Agreement. Hypothetically there is but reality would never allow it. If it was just a case of the degree of subscription to an economic club, counter-balanced by the size of tariffs, with a sliding scale on the spectrum, then one can gauge the benefits and disadvantages but the EU is set up in such a way that, really, it's all-in or all-out. That IS understandable for the European continent and I am certain it has been of huge benefit, to the continent. However,...
Couldn't agree more.
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  • Posted: Oct 17, 2022 6:13am
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    Category: High Impact Breaking News
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