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Beware retaliatory protectionism
With geopolitics the second biggest driver – after inflation – of central bank reserves managers’ operations, financial markets may be underestimating the dark cloud looming. Rather than financial distrust, we may increasingly need to brace for political distrust. The threat of ‘beggar-thy-neighbour’ policies – from the US and China to anti-Russia sanctions and reserves confiscation – may be rising and, without renewed policy stimulus, stagflation will deepen. Geopolitical factors were brewing before the invasion of Ukraine, evidenced by US tariffs under President Donald Trump, US/China frictions over ... (full story)