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US consumer caution lingers on
US retail sales, despite beating expectations today, appear to be on a softening trend. The core figure that better matches broader consumer trends was flat and revisions were unfavourable. Consumer spending is more than retail and there is scope for rebalancing towards services, but the report still favours a 75bp hike from the Fed next week over 100bp. Core retail activity hints at a softening trend: US retail sales rose 0.3% month-on-month in August, much better than the 0.1% fall that was expected, but there have been quite a few revisions to the history that hint of a softer trend in spending. Moreover, the ... (full story)