Old Dog Kiwi
-
The data and determinations behind dating business cycle peaks and troughs
The FRED graph above shows that real gross domestic product (GDP) has declined over the first two quarters of 2022, after increasing by an average of 5.3% over the previous five quarters. In the eyes of some economists and financial market participants, two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth is sufficient evidence to declare a recession. In the 75-year history of quarterly estimates of real GDP growth, there has been only one episode when two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth was not associated with a recession episode: the second and third quarters of 1947. So, from a historical ... (full story)