Unexpected March downturn brings recession closer

So the extreme movement in 10YR is out of line with reality. Obviously we will see more rate hikes but personally I think the hikes will be less than currently priced in. But lets see.

what 10Y @ 3% is too high with inflation @ 8% ? 10Y can go up without the fed
as they step out the intervention business that market is priced freely

No thats not what I am saying. But inflation is not going to run 8% year to year from here to the end of the world. What I meant is that the economy dies before the rates that are currently priced in will be effectuated.

I know what you mean, the Fed are trapped by inflation which may cause more of the reinvent the wheel type economics in the near future... rather than accepting recession.
If you hold rates lower than inflation for too long it's just a matter of time before real trouble hits, the 10Y is out of whack, but only because it's too low.

this morning on a news thingy an interview with kwasi something or other asked a DIRECT question "Do you think there is a reecession coming?"
"No he doesn't think so" IM an engineer drone (no degree) I say yes there is 100% a BIG recession coming Who do you believe guys?
Band AND bonsey don't bother replying.xx

I try not to speculate on what is coming. It is obvious that interest rates was kept at a too low level for too long. But in my view the problems we may now be facing started way before the inflation started to increase.

For too long the FED and ECB has had the markets as its primary focus instead of letting the markets move freely. Every time there has been a move lower of any significance the FED/ECB has stepped in. This has led many to think that it can only go one way and sure it has done so for a very very long time. We have had zero interest rates and in some countries even negative rates on deposits and the only place to go with your saving has been the stock market or other assets. Now, an incredible number of people with just ordinary savings are trapped in the markets. This will make the blow to the economy much harder if it comes.

But also not reacting to inflation in the beginning means that the future hikes will have to be a double dose of fuckers. And thats going to hit the economy regardless of what the FED/ECB says.