DislikedThird, if the bulk of Russian energy exports is off the market for the remainder of 2022, a global economic downturn seems unavoidable. This slowdown could be more protracted than that in 1991.
The Russian Oil Supply Shock of 2022
In the immediate aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in late February, early estimates suggested that perhaps 3 million barrels a day (mb/d) of petroleum production—almost 3 percent of world production—had been effectively removed from the global oil market, constituting one of the largest supply shortfalls since the 1970s. Russia accounts for about 10 percent of global petroleum production. Its crude production exceeds 10 mb/d. It is also a major exporter to world markets, exporting about 5 mb/d of crude oil and close to 3 mb/d of petroleum products (Chart 1). Russia’s main customers include Belarus ... (full story)