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  • Russia could be about to default on its debt: Here’s what you need to know

    From cnbc.com

    Russia could be about to default on its foreign currency debts for the first time in decades, likely beginning a drawn out wrangling process with international bodies. International sanctions on the Central Bank of Russia in response to the unprovoked invasion of Ukraine have blocked off a substantial portion of the country’s foreign exchange reserves, which it would ordinarily use to service sovereign debt obligations. Measures taken by Moscow to mitigate the impact — such as capital controls — have led major ratings agencies to downgrade Russia’s government debt, concluding that a debt default is now highly ... (full story)

About 300b of central reserves have been frozen, 340b still available.

Russia owes roughly $40 billion worth of euro- and dollar-denominated sovereign debt, approximately $20 billion of which is held by foreigners, the Financial Times reports.

Important to keep in mind is that oil prices will remain high as OPEC+ is united on the issue, with increasing prices of other export resources.

As large number of funds in the U.S. that will suffer as a result of being hit by the triple-whammy of Russia/Ukraine, the Chinese Property-investments markets, and the crumbling U.S. fiat economy all going belly up at the same time.

Domino effect. Brace for hyperinflation in Mid 2022.
I come from the future.
Debt to GDP of Russia is less than 20%….

I think they can swim with their friendly countries, it will be hard but it’s short term.
But most countries with high debt and write off in this wave of next depression will affect everyone.

Putin has been working hard to make Russia self-sufficient and highly industrialized, but the west doesn't realize that yet.

West countries, on the other hand, import almost everything they need.

The West are neither self-sufficient nor highly industrialized.

Sanctions are never a solution it’s part of the problem

Peace prevail in this unipolar west world.
I come from the future.
Now, here comes the question:
Who's propaganda is more "truthful", Western's leaderships telling their citizens everything is under control or Russia's leadership telling their citizens everything is alright and we will emerge even stronger?
Default has a negative connotation, if you have the funds but third parties refuse for whatever reasons to release the funds, the default must lay with those third parties.

This much the same as not releasing sovereign gold when demanded, for example Venezuela.

Withholding sovereign assets from legitimate use is nothing short of piracy.

If I were managing payments, I would formally authorise payment obligations from frozen accounts, insist future payment for exports be paid in gold or a gold backed Yuan (via the Shanghai gold exchange) with an added premium to be refunded from those frozen accounts.

I would open up a non visible sovereign account rebadged as the FuQ Corporation.

It's because of the ability to weaponise the global reserve currency that overseas political agendas gain traction.

Yes, it is Global Political Agenda...
I come from the future.
Quoting Pat Chiko
Default has a negative connotation, if you have the funds but third parties refuse for whatever reasons to release the funds, the default must lay with those third parties. This much the same as not releasing sovereign gold when demanded, for example Venezuela. Withholding sovereign assets from legitimate use is nothing short of piracy. If I were managing payments, I would formally authorise payment obligations from frozen accounts, insist future payment for exports be paid in gold or a gold backed Yuan (via the Shanghai gold exchange) with an added...
What does FuQ stand for?
Quoting ravenbg
{quote} What does FuQ stand for?
It mean, a made up corporation such as called nasty....with

FCUK YOU.......lol
I come from the future.
Quoting Pat Chiko
{quote} FCUK YOU.......lol
I thought so, but wanted a confirmation ...
Quoting ravenbg
Now, here comes the question: Who's propaganda is more "truthful", Western's leaderships telling their citizens everything is under control or Russia's leadership telling their citizens everything is alright and we will emerge even stronger?

Pro Russia: China 1.4Bn + India 1 Bn + SE Asia 550 M + Russia 140 M => 3 Bn people.

Anti Russian: USA 350 M + EU 500 M + UK 70 Million Australia and New Zealand => less than 1 Bn people.

I don't overvalue the so called "international community".

Countries with more than a third of the world's population, including China with their #2 economy, are the situational allies of Russia.

The only dislocation from other Countries are those in the West, it’s business as usual with such as the recent huge oil deal in Rupees with India .

Game on.

Please give it a thought
I come from the future.
Even stronger sanctions and additional military assistance to Ukraine are needed, aggressive dictators respect only force.
Quoting Breza
Even stronger sanctions and additional military assistance to Ukraine are needed, aggressive dictators respect only force.

It does not work that way.
The amount of exposure is important but not as important as competitive advantages.

I will share an example
Russia decides to stop exporting gas to Europe.
Price of gas hypothetically doubles.
There will be shortages of gas with resultant effects.
Common man may not be able to pay for hearing.
Businesses will go bankrupt without a proper supply or increased input prices.
The common man in Europe loses his job.

At the same time, the gas can be sold to China at lower prices making their industries much more competitive.
As their input prices are much less than European, they can wipe out their European competitors.
Russia still gets its money through China.
China can also sell the gas and make a profit.

So, it’s not as easy as we think.

The common man on the streets of U.K., France etc do not really know that any strong action would also hurt themselves.

At the moment, best thing would be a negotiated settlement.
Give Russia and Putin, a face saving deal.
Give Ukraine their country back with peace and firm guarantees.
Remove the possibility of NATO expansionism into Ukraine.
This will all save lives of innocent civilians in Ukraine.


Either NATO get in and fight or negotiate……..
I come from the future.
Quoting Breza
Even stronger sanctions and additional military assistance to Ukraine are needed, aggressive dictators respect only force.
This is going to make things worse. No reasonable man would believe that more sanctions and weapons will end this war, only ppl filled with aggression would think that way.
Compromise will end this war, nothing else.
Quoting ravenbg
{quote} This is going to make things worse. No reasonable man would believe that more sanctions and weapons will end this war, only ppl filled with aggression would think that way. Compromise will end this war, nothing else.
I am writing from a city that was under siege by the Milosevic regime for 3.5 years, shelling, snipers, killing civilians ...
my government has agreed to "compromise" with Milosevic and now we have a failed state.
Ukrainians must not repeat the mistake.
Quoting Pat Chiko
{quote} It does not work that way. The amount of exposure is important but not as important as competitive advantages. I will share an example Russia decides to stop exporting gas to Europe. Price of gas hypothetically doubles. There will be shortages of gas with resultant effects. Common man may not be able to pay for hearing. Businesses will go bankrupt without a proper supply or increased input prices. The common man in Europe loses his job. At the same time, the gas can be sold to China at lower prices making their industries much more competitive....
Hi，Pat. I've been following you for a long time.What happened to you recently.Have you decided to leave this forum. Where are you going？ I will follow you always.I really learned a lot from you and I really admire you. I've only been trading for 2 years and that's just the beginning.I want to learn your ways.Thank you for your share.
You must be right, I know you were part of Yugoslavia, but it also is not easy to see politicians selling your country to foreign powers leaving ppl as prisoners to outer powers.
The fact that a very small % of the population is making good money and the reset lives on the edge of poverty and in poverty does not make it good either.
Democracy, not this time, here democracy is a another word for corruption.
Now politicians voted to raise their salaries because of the inflation, businesses are closed due to bankruptcy, ppl are left without job, cannot pay mortgages, loans, etc. - this is the democracy here, not sure in other places ...
Quoting Breza
{quote} I am writing from a city that was under siege by the Milosevic regime for 3.5 years, shelling, snipers, killing civilians ... my government has agreed to "compromise" with Milosevic and now we have a failed state. Ukrainians must not repeat the mistake.
There are a lot of people defending Putin and even Serbian aggression during the Yugoslavia War unfortunately. They are brainwashed and cannot be educated.

All the love and respect from Turkey to our Bosnian neighbours!
I make my own luck.
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  • Posted: Mar 16, 2022 7:43am
  • Submitted by:
     Newsstand
    Category: Fundamental Analysis
    Comments: 17  /  Views: 4,320