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  • Turkey Set to Pause Easing as Prices Surge

    From bnnbloomberg.ca

    Turkey is set to pause its cycle of interest-rate cuts Thursday after a sliding currency and rising global energy prices pushed consumer inflation to its highest level since the beginning of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s rule. All 20 economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect the central bank, led by Governor Sahap Kavcioglu, to hold the benchmark one-week repo rate at 14%. While most emerging markets have begun raising rates in recent months to head off global price pressures, Turkey has cut rates by 500 basis points since September, an aggressive easing cycle demanded by Erdogan’s high-stakes bid to boost ... (full story)

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  • Comment #1
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  • Edited 5:04pm Jan 20, 2022 4:37am | Edited 5:04pm
  •  HudithePfupf
  • Joined Mar 2016 | Status: Member | 278 Comments
Real time example how to fuck up a currency.

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I don't get it why the Turks are just watching how the lira evaporates because of a monetary policy that isn't based on science but on wishful thinking of a single person. Why isn't there not more public rage about the situation or why don't we hear about it hear in Europe? I think there is a lot of irrationality in this.

I also don't get it why Europe and the ECB are not more alerted about the situation. I also wonder why there isn't more news about banks having to make huge write-offs on loans to turkish companies. The USD/TRY could sink to 10 or rise to 20 within 2022, depending on the decisions of very few people. If Turkey still has somewhat control of what's going on, such a decision should be close.

How can you successfully do business in such an environment, if in the end the movement of the underlying currency is the main factor determining the success of your services and products?

I wonder how this works out over the next 10 years. Any insights?
 
 
  • Comment #2
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  • Jan 20, 2022 5:36am Jan 20, 2022 5:36am
  •  pamc
  • Joined Jan 2017 | Status: Member | 72 Comments
They will end up owing trillions to Qatar
 
 
  • Comment #3
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  • Jan 20, 2022 7:17am Jan 20, 2022 7:17am
  •  JotaP
  • | Membership Revoked | Joined Feb 2021 | 276 Comments
Turkey is not basing its decisions on standard economics. Better wait and see what comes out in the near future.
Standard economics recommends raising CB interest rates to control inflation, but there is much more to it.
For example, part of the theory is based on major currencies traveling between countries to take advantage of interest rate differentials. But who is going to invest in Turkish Lira, a non-stable currency?
Follow your guts, if you want to lose your money...
 
 
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  • Posted: Jan 20, 2022 3:17am
  • Submitted by:
     Newsstand
    Category: Fundamental Analysis
    Comments: 3  /  Views: 748
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