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The Dice Are Loaded Against ECB Turning Hawkish Prematurely
Between now and the end of this week, reams and reams will be written about the European Central Bank’s policy review for September. Yet, after it’s all done and dusted, it may not have moved the markets’ needle very much on trading euro-area securities. While there have been several voices seeking an immediate slowing of the ECB’s stimulus, it’s not clear if their numbers are strong enough within the Governing Council to sway the consensus for a reduction of pandemic-related bond buying from the fourth quarter. Euro-area bonds have mostly rallied this quarter, coinciding with a period when the ECB vowed to ... (full story)