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  • The Employment Situation -- August 2021

    From bls.gov

    Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 235,000 in August, and the unemployment rate declined by 0.2 percentage point to 5.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. So far this year, monthly job growth has averaged 586,000. In August, notable job gains occurred in professional and business services, transportation and warehousing, private education, manufacturing, and other services. Employment in retail trade declined over the month. This news release presents statistics from two monthly surveys. The household survey measures labor force status, including unemployment, by demographic ... (full story)

Added at 8:34am

  • August nonfarm payrolls increase 235,000 vs. 720,000 estimate

    From cnbc.com

    Job creation for August was a huge disappointment, with the economy adding just 235,000 positions, the Labor Department reported Friday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for 720,000 new hires. The unemployment rate dropped to 5.2% from 5.4%, in line with estimates. August’s total was the worst since January and comes with heightened fears of the pandemic and the impact that rising Covid cases could have on what has been so far a mostly robust recovery. Weekly jobless filings have fallen to their lowest levels since the early days of the pandemic in March 2020, but a large employment gap remains. ... (full story)

Biden bust just getting underway.
This number wasn't a miss - it was a disaster!

Forget worrying about a taper tantrum now - worry about the coming recession.
...because you never know - until you do!
no more words , USD data so very bad ........... no more taper ...... forget it ......
Wickoff is my basic analysis
close to benchmark 200K
fedlings are going to add more liquidity and make things all better? lol
I am wondering if the numbers show that the states is running out of people to hire
Jobs Data mixed mode like a Bunkey Jumping,mkt trigger the SL then back to position, big boys play their Role Perfectly...........
After such bad data, how come USD flying !! any Idea??
Quoting RedCable
After such bad data, how come USD flying !! any Idea??
Pump before the dump, w8 for new candle to start dropping.

Am seeing 1790-1780 today to beginning of next week.
market only wants to manipulate the price ................. how to make revrsal for USD in down trend with very-very bad news ............. that is imposible to tapering ...... tapering only a rumor, but not be happen in september ................
Wickoff is my basic analysis
Bad data)? I think the forecast was way off and this data it's decent because the 2 previous numbers were big. I don't know why did they put such a big number. The unemployment rate it's good and earnings are also better than expected.
i think this is a good data, average job growth monthly more than 500k
Quoting RedCable
After such bad data, how come USD flying !! any Idea??
it is called pump and dump
Say something meaningful or Silence!!
Don't expect the USD to act according to data. You know better if you had traded jobs report before. Once there was this jobs report which was the best you could imagine and still USD fell.
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BTC looking delicious
Quoting RedCable
After such bad data, how come USD flying !! any Idea??
it still bad in action
The importance of today's data is via inflation (earnings) that was up. This is another sign that inflation is here to stay and not transitory/temporary as FED advocating. Tapering is a done deal.
This should translate into selling Equities and buying dollar. For dollar, the equation has to consider the factors of other currencies. Actually inflation is up as well in Europe...so dollar move is quiet counterbalanced with the other pairs.
I suspect bearish USD to be priced in based on a technical standpoint. It would need to break a few levels in a few pairs and the DXY to continue lower. Just an opinion.
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Quoting RedCable
After such bad data, how come USD flying !! any Idea??
What chart were you looking at.. it actually tanked at 8:30AM EST
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PsXGzblg7Ws
Wickoff is my basic analysis
pfft....no worries> joe will fix it, he has a plan. just like A-stan
This is my take in this:
Stock market will do a correction. Fed doesn't want Gold to go higher. Gold will drop. US dollar is a safe haven, and will rise.
I believe by the end of next week we shall have the risen US dollars.
Quoting BaliBoyz80
i think this is a good data, average job growth monthly more than 500k
There seems to be an inherent style of achieving some desired results; influence the estimated or under/over-report the actual (then adjust next month)

Note that there is 100k plus that was added to last month figures, the ADP on Wednesday should be indicative that this won't be close to the estimate.

If they wanted the USD rate to fly, they will just influence estimate to be 200k (after a 1m increase, that is reasonable).

Then the unemployment dropped a big 0.4%, with such increase in wages growth, it is not bad data. It is just a big miss from an inflated estimate.
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Would USD pull back before rallying again?
USD needs 9 million more jobs will return to normal, like before the pandemic ...... how can this target be achieved this year ...... imposible
Wickoff is my basic analysis
If there were not so many stresses on the economy it would have been decent.
But and it is a big but, evictions are coming to those who do not have the funds to pay their Bills.
Do it yourselfers are unable to afford the materials to do it yourself.
Builders have all sorts of constraints in market preventing affordable housing getting built.
Debt remains a major stumbling block as debt loads are still extreme.
Energy costs provide strong headwinds to growth.
Regulations are getting increased rather then reduced.
Taxes are getting reviewed to increase them.

It will take much more then propaganda to restore confidence.

add; The person who loses the least will be the one still smiling in the months ahead.
Breech of confidence in the Con game still yet to manifest.
The longly awaited Wall Street Crash
Invest in alarm clocks
Attached Image
Stagflation
biden
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Average Hourly Earnings m/m o,6% = Inflation.
surprise not much push with this RED result...
Quoting RedCable
After such bad data, how come USD flying !! any Idea??
Hourly Earnings was very good. That is more directly related to inflation than the jobs numbers. I wouldn't be surprised if the EURUSD started going down in a little while.
Quoting 4x_Trader
Stagflation
Nailed it.
bls.gov which has one of the reports here is of course an abbreviation for BuLL Sheet Gov
Quoting MaverickCT
I am wondering if the numbers show that the states is running out of people to hire
Not with 5.2 unem yet.
here's the actual numbers on a chart I posted earlier in week
the result is very bad because it can't go back this year on those numbers
it is inflationary but Powell doesn't give two hoots about that.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot 2021-08-30 at 17.30.15.png Size: 179 KB
#doyourownanalysisordietryin
Quoting Bones
here's the actual numbers on a chart I posted earlier in week the result is very bad because it can't go back this year on those numbers it is inflationary but Powell doesn't give two hoots about that. {image}
USA people love easy money, so Fed keep printing to please them. no wonder why inflation keep going higher each month.
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