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Morgan Stanley: The US Consumer Is Headed For A Double-Dip Recession
Two weeks ago, well before most banks slashed their GDP forecasts (most notably Goldman who took a machete to its Q3 GDP estimate of 8.5% and now sees just 5.5% growth in Q3), we noted that "a sudden negative change" had taken place in the economy, predicting (correctly) that retail sales would be a big miss (they were). Specifically, we looked at the latest ominous trend in consumer spending which was notably inflecting lower at a time when the latest UMich survey found that reactions to market prices on purchases for homes, vehicles, and household durables were the most negative ever recorded in the long history of ... (full story)