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  • US retail sales drop worse-than-expected 1.1% in July as rising Covid fears hit consumers

    From cnbc.com

    Shoppers in the U.S. cut back their purchases in July even more than expected as worries over the delta variant of Covid-19 dampened activity and government stimulus dried up. Retail sales for the month fell 1.1%, worse than the Dow Jones estimate of a 0.3% decline. Excluding automobiles, sales declined 0.4%, according to Commerce Department figures released Tuesday. Markets showed little initial reaction to the news, with futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average off more than 200 points and government bond yields lower across the board. Consumers make up nearly 70% of all activity in the U.S., so retail ... (full story)

Wtf...
This is really US BAD DATA's.
yet the usd is flying !!!!
Quoting Prof.Trader
Wtf... This is really US BAD DATA's.
No, it won't have any major effect. It's just a retail sales. Pay attention to, interest rates, GDP, inflation.
So USD gets a shite number and then rallies against the euro? Why
Did it drop because of stimulis is cancelled or because prices have gone up a lot?
wtf USD up?
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XX.53.124
i am new to forex but how can the eurusd go down if Core Retail Sales is -0.4 and Retail Sales -1.1 shouldn't the eur go up against the dollar ?
Explanation anyone ?
Quoting tony95
So USD gets a shite number and then rallies against the euro? Why
Probably all the retailers watching the numbers thought it was bad news and jumped short USD.
This is f**ked up
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XXX.183.211
Fairly new on Forex. Can someone explain why is dollar go higher when the retail sales numbers where worse than expected?

I guess I'll just wait 2-3 hours to settle down.
*Bad US data
Big Banks : Let's send USD higher!
the news is not only bad but very bad
All my analysis is based on Wyckoff Methods
Its about the Tapering talk later by Powell.....Retail sales have low impact
COT: The precious data ignored
Good trap!
Quoting kuroro001
Its about the Tapering talk later by Powell.....Retail sales have low impact
so why market moved on this news?
Quoting kuroro001
Its about the Tapering talk later by Powell.....Retail sales have low impact
what do u think powell will send mesaage
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XXX.223.65
All are watching. After 30min USD will bego down and down.
  •  Guest
  • | IP XXX.XXX.45.1
Quoting Guest
i am new to forex but how can the eurusd go down if Core Retail Sales is -0.4 and Retail Sales -1.1 shouldn't the eur go up against the dollar ? Explanation anyone ?
Wait for 9am candle, investors usually drive price down for better entry
  •  Guest
  • | IP XXXX:fe1e:c645
Quoting Guest
i am new to forex but how can the eurusd go down if Core Retail Sales is -0.4 and Retail Sales -1.1 shouldn't the eur go up against the dollar ? Explanation anyone ?

It is just retail sales.. Not that much effective.. Inflation, Unemployment data is effective..
Quoting hkg_paul
{quote} what do u think powell will send mesaage
I think Powell will concern with Bad Retail Sales Data.
So, Powell will Dovish and will delay about tapering.
Quoting Banditten
{quote} Probably all the retailers watching the numbers thought it was bad news and jumped short USD.
But is not good data for usd. Is it?
Quoting Prof.Trader
{quote} I think Powell will concern with Bad Retail Sales Data. So, Powell will Dovish and will delay about tapering.
the 10y treasury recovered a bit at mom , however gold not much respond
tapering will be delayed by 2023 ............ next, Powell will speak on the grounds that the inflation rate is not yet stable so that QE will continue until the end of 2023
All my analysis is based on Wyckoff Methods
Quoting hesron
tapering will be delayed by 2023 ............ next, Powell will speak on the grounds that the inflation rate is not yet stable so that QE will continue until the end of 2023
Agree, and by 23 there will bo other issues to cope with. And so it continues.
Consumer not standing on its' feet.
Weak in China as well as US.
More covid lockdowns and disruptions.
Reduction in freebie government money.
Geopolitical uncertainty leading to lessening of confidence and trust in leaders.

Whole background leads to movement towards safety. Retail sales part of the larger picture of malaise setting in.

add: This is problem with whole global economy being based upon Debt. CB's need someone to borrow or there will be no growth.
Somebody somewhere said sto stop tapering exactly while news came out! (( Hate these games!!!
  •  Guest
  • | IP XXX.XXX.167.161
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=61Q6wWu5ziY
Fear for covid..that's why it's going up... see the bigger picture. It will probably be in the short term... but watch out.
the KING, ride on
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Quoting swing77
the KING, ride on {image}
mr. @jay_powell is not Mrs. @JanetYellen, we have diferrent tool's
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Quoting DollarRain
{quote} But is not good data for usd. Is it?
I dont know what is good or bad data. I figured out the hard way many years ago that the markets have their own opinion and does what the markets need to do. So all I can do is to get a grasp of where the markets wants to go and try to ride along. Unfortunately I dont have sufficient power to move it.
Consumers are rejecting higher prices. Meaning they don’t like this much inflation. This should urge Fed to start tapering sooner. Guess what will happen if consumers don’t spend?
Why us dollar increase?
Quoting umbrella man
Consumers are rejecting higher prices. Meaning they don’t like this much inflation. This should urge Fed to start tapering sooner. Guess what will happen if consumers don’t spend?
From your angle, sound reasonable
Emerging market currencies where all the yield chasers have gone have a problem now that US is no longer going to bail everyone out globally as per Biden speech.
Confidence is going to be hard to find.
Big appetite on safe heaven (usd chf and jpy) covid and Afghanistan
Powel usually Dovish.
Will this time Hawkish ?
Quoting MuliawanSam
Powel usually Dovish. Will this time Hawkish ?
Banks are propping up the dollar, otherwise it will be much worse than Afghanistan. Biden can't afford another crisis.
Quoting Techanalyst
{quote} No, it won't have any major effect. It's just a retail sales. Pay attention to, interest rates, GDP, inflation.
You are joking right? Retail sales make up 60% of the USA economy and these numbers are just dismal, indicating the consumer is pulling back...or maybe those stimulus checks ran out...or maybe with all the pending evictions those people are not spending their remaining unemployment checks right before they hit the street.

Either way interest rates, GDP, etc., the retail shopper doesn't care about those
...because you never know - until you do!
Quoting Guest
i am new to forex but how can the eurusd go down if Core Retail Sales is -0.4 and Retail Sales -1.1 shouldn't the eur go up against the dollar ? Explanation anyone ?
You're thinking wrong.

Right now USD = risk. In a risk on situation USD falls and EU goes up. US Government prints tons of $$$ then it's risk off and USD falls and EU rises.

Now with these terrible numbers, Covid-19 delta, Taliban, etc., it's risk OFF. Therefore currencies like USD, JPY and CHF will rise as people flock to a safe haven in risk off time.

Does that help?
...because you never know - until you do!
Quoting Prof.Trader
{quote} I think Powell will concern with Bad Retail Sales Data. So, Powell will Dovish and will delay about tapering.
I wholeheartly disagree. Why?

If the US economy is as good as they say there is no reason to continue bond purchases. Taper now, taper right now....say it again and again so people get used to it BEFORE it starts.

Delaying taper only re-inforces the belief that things are not good.
...because you never know - until you do!
Quoting umbrella man
Consumers are rejecting higher prices. Meaning they don’t like this much inflation. This should urge Fed to start tapering sooner. Guess what will happen if consumers don’t spend?
Yes, that is 1 part of the equation

2. No more stimulus checks

3. Back to school spending or maybe home school and save?

4. Uncertanity in the world - risk off.
...because you never know - until you do!
Dollar is still the safe haven currency of the world, period
There are better risk haven currencies like JPY and CHF. In risk off situations even dollar goes down against chf and jpy. This didn't happen after retail sales data. In fact dollar went up against all the others including chf and JPY. Heck! even Gold went down against USD after retail sales data. Clearly the dollar strength after retail sales had little to do with risk off sentiment.
Quoting fxsport
{quote} You are joking right? Retail sales make up 60% of the USA economy and these numbers are just dismal, indicating the consumer is pulling back...or maybe those stimulus checks ran out...or maybe with all the pending evictions those people are not spending their remaining unemployment checks right before they hit the street. Either way interest rates, GDP, etc., the retail shopper doesn't care about those
Retail shoppers thanks for the laugh. Not going to have much effect on USD and economy. They don't care for sure, but others do and GDP, interest rates, etc... it is the way to go. That is where currency is either strong or weak.
Quoting thelordpip
There are better risk haven currencies like JPY and CHF. In risk off situations even dollar goes down against chf and jpy. This didn't happen after retail sales data. In fact dollar went up against all the others including chf and JPY. Heck! even Gold went down against USD after retail sales data. Clearly the dollar strength after retail sales had little to do with risk off sentiment.
USDJPY bullish all the way to 110.450 price area.
Quoting fxsport
{quote} I wholeheartly disagree. Why? If the US economy is as good as they say there is no reason to continue bond purchases. Taper now, taper right now....say it again and again so people get used to it BEFORE it starts. Delaying taper only re-inforces the belief that things are not good.
Things are not good for the whole world now sport. Only stronger countries can handle this pandemic crisis and one of those countries is USA. They pulled out of Afghanistan because they took enough resources out of that country and do not need to be there anymore. The million dollar question is, where is America military going next????????
Quoting Techanalyst
{quote} Things are not good for the whole world now sport. Only stronger countries can handle this pandemic crisis and one of those countries is USA. They pulled out of Afghanistan because they took enough resources out of that country and do not need to be there anymore. The million dollar question is, where is America military going next????????
Home. It is time to stop pretending to be the world's policeman.
...because you never know - until you do!
Quoting Techanalyst
{quote} Retail shoppers thanks for the laugh. Not going to have much effect on USD and economy. They don't care for sure, but others do and GDP, interest rates, etc... it is the way to go. That is where currency is either strong or weak.
I guess we can agree to disagree. Once the USA consumer decides to retreat and not spend it sends the entire economy into a death spiral.

During the pandemic home owners plowed money into their biggest investment; Home Depot, Lowes, etc., benefited as did all the workers in those establishments. Kill the consumer and you kill the golden goose.

The reason for the killer GDP numbers in February and March due to stimulus checks and guess who - the consumer.

Consumers care about what they can buy and for how much. Inflation will hurt purchases and many will just never happen.
...because you never know - until you do!
Quoting fxsport
{quote} Home. It is time to stop pretending to be the world's policeman.
They are not pretending. They are after rich resources. They will not stop. But you say home? So who is going to pay all those military personnel their salary while just sitting at home?
Quoting fxsport
{quote} I guess we can agree to disagree. Once the USA consumer decides to retreat and not spend it sends the entire economy into a death spiral. During the pandemic home owners plowed money into their biggest investment; Home Depot, Lowes, etc., benefited as did all the workers in those establishments. Kill the consumer and you kill the golden goose. The reason for the killer GDP numbers in February and March due to stimulus checks and guess who - the consumer. Consumers care about what they can buy and for how much. Inflation will hurt purchases...
I strongly disagree. Everyone will spend no matter of the situation. Sometimes more, sometimes less but they will spend the money. If consumers care what they buy, why do we all at least in USA and Canada, buy all of the Chinese products? If we "care" what we buy? Because that is all that there is available, so whatever is available consumers will buy. No matter what, consumers numbers don't mean much for USD effect. They want to push USD high and they will do exactly that.
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XXX.207.35
For everyone wondering why usd went up, the retail sales decision is a way to look at the economy, similar to interest rates. Low retail sales would mean no hike in interest rates and as a result, higher demand for usd
Quoting Techanalyst
{quote} I strongly disagree. Everyone will spend no matter of the situation. Sometimes more, sometimes less but they will spend the money. If consumers care what they buy, why do we all at least in USA and Canada, buy all of the Chinese products? If we "care" what we buy? Because that is all that there is available, so whatever is available consumers will buy. No matter what, consumers numbers don't mean much for USD effect. They want to push USD high and they will do exactly that.
The fact that you are so confident in your misleading posts is beyond ridiculous. Consumers are everything in the US.
Quoting umbrella man
{quote} The fact that you are so confident in your misleading posts is beyond ridiculous. Consumers are everything in the US.
They are not everything. You're wrong and ridiculous. Start learning fundamentals 101. Start there.
Quoting Techanalyst
{quote} They are not everything. You're wrong and ridiculous. Start learning fundamentals 101. Start there.
Stick to your doodles in charts kid (aka technical chartist), leave the fundamentals to the professionals.
hey umbrella man I've been trading forex for about a year now and have only ever used technical analysis the take trades and i have struggled to stay consistent. I feel like fundamentals is one thing I am missing but I am not to sure what the best way to use news to give me an advantage. any tips?
Quoting kayeden03
hey umbrella man I've been trading forex for about a year now and have only ever used technical analysis the take trades and i have struggled to stay consistent. I feel like fundamentals is one thing I am missing but I am not to sure what the best way to use news to give me an advantage. any tips?
I do not suggest news trading. I personally use supply and demand trading. Use trend and fundamentals for position sizing. Don’t use huge leverage. If you need more than 30 or 50 leverage, you are gambling your hard earned money. Learn about money management.
Quoting Guest
For everyone wondering why usd went up, the retail sales decision is a way to look at the economy, similar to interest rates. Low retail sales would mean no hike in interest rates and as a result, higher demand for usd
You maybe wrong. Low interest rate make a currency less attractive no matter what.
Quoting umbrella man
{quote} I do not suggest news trading. I personally use supply and demand trading. Use trend and fundamentals for position sizing. Don’t use huge leverage. If you need more than 30 or 50 leverage, you are gambling your hard earned money. Learn about money management.
okay so how does supply and demand directly move a currency, like what would need to happen for something to go up or down. and also What would have to happen fundamentally for you to take a bigger or smaller position size?
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