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US payrolls may pour cold water on US dollar’s momentum
We expect a below-consensus NFP The recent hawkish shift from the Fed has pushed the notion of a data-dependent approach to future policy moves, and data releases are playing an increasingly larger role in driving market moves. From an FX perspective, positive data surprises should benefit the dollar through the rate expectations channel, as further signs that the US economy is indeed overheating should fuel expectation of earlier action by the Fed. Tomorrow’s US jobs-report for the month of June should set the tone for markets and the Fed’s rate expectations for the rest of July. Our US economist estimates the ... (full story)
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