How Long is Transitory? | Forex Factory

  • How Long is Transitory?

    From marctomarket.com

    The Bank of England meeting on June 24th finishes this round of major central bank meetings. At its last meeting, Bailey & Co reduced the weekly bond-buying. The extension of social restrictions well into July provides added reason to be cautious, though economic activity is accelerating and consumer prices are rising faster than the medium-term target of 2% for the first time in three years. British growth is likely peaking this quarter, perhaps a little above 4%. It would put H1 21 growth around 2.6%. The pace of activity is activity is likely to slow to around 2% in H2. Growth in H1 22 may be closer to 1.5%. ... (full story)

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trumps
Jun 19, 2021 6:10pm
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Transitory:
"Not permanent".
https://www.google.com/search?q=tran...hrome&ie=UTF-8

Talking about USA rather than BOE, From the Feds earliest mention of the word though to current language, it's clear the Fed are referring to supply based, cost push inflation. Bottle necks are larger than anticipated.
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LloydOz
Jun 21, 2021 4:00am
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Quoting trumps
Transitory: "Not permanent". https://www.google.com/search?q=tran...hrome&ie=UTF-8 Talking about USA rather than BOE, From the Feds earliest mention of the word though to current language, it's clear the Fed are referring to supply based, cost push inflation. Bottle necks are larger than anticipated.

I dunno, its not clear to me. Cost push inflation is very well defined, and I can't recall Powell talking about this aspect.

Maybe I blinked. Or, maybe its coz they all talk so much tosh that the colours get mixed up like paint does. What is clear to me - nobody at the Fed has any clue about anything - this current reverse repo thing, blind freddie could have anticipated that. Fed didn't.
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AnniLi
Jun 21, 2021 6:37am
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Output gaps are affected by both demand and supply factors so the analyses you are relying upon for your views better be covering both. Some factors on the supply chain side are transitory long eg containers in the wrong place, oil market politics and sanction games. Others are transitory short such the usual suspects of weather, local politics and regional battles. On the demand side are many transitory factors: pandemic effects on consumption and savings and demographics, pattern of travel and tourism, and which countries to trust (least of all USA). Good luck! Its a wait and see world for us all incl Fed.
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Trader#EA6D
Jun 20, 2021 8:46am
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But whos to say supply side shocks are transitory? Aint been able to wipe my ass with top shelf charmin since the start of this shamdemic
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