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  • Consumer Price Index - March 2021

    From bls.gov

    The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.6 percent in March on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.4 percent in February, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The March 1-month increase was the largest rise since a 0.6-percent increase in August 2012. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.6 percent before seasonal adjustment. The gasoline index continued to increase, rising 9.1 percent in March and accounting for nearly half of the seasonally adjusted increase in the all items index. The natural gas index also rose, contributing to a 5.0-percent ... (full story)

Added at 8:34am

  • U.S. consumer price index rose 0.6% in March, vs 0.5% increase expected

    From cnbc.com

    Consumer prices shot higher in March, given a boost both by a strong economic recovery and year-over-year comparisons to a time when the Covid-19 pandemic was about to throttle the U.S. economy, the Labor Department reported Tuesday. The consumer price index rose 0.6% from the previous month but 2.6% from the same period a year ago. The year over year gain is the highest since August 2018. The index was projected to rise 0.5% on a monthly basis and 2.5% from March 2020, according to Dow Jones estimates. That big surge on a year-over-year basis came due to what economists call the “base effect” or the lower level ... (full story)

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boom
Let's be honest.... this figure is fudged.
Quoting ww3361
Let's be honest.... this figure is fudged.
next month might be even higher
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It seems fairly low compared to the PPI. We'll see, someone has to pay that
after CPI EURUSD up? what a non sense
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market is opposite. Fundamental is useless these days. Its a rigged game
why the faking gold rising????
This is a stupid manipulate
Oh my god how come usd become weak after good data???
Isn't it beautiful when PA makes sense and everything goes according to plan? EU was strongly bullish below 1900...the time to short will be above 2100.
It is only ever a fudge if it goes opposite to your position.....

The reason CPI is trailing PPI is because many contracts are agreed on a forward basis of between 60 and 90 days. The increases seen today reflect the increases from Dec / Jan. The bigger rises will come, they will come in Q2 which will scare the hell out of the markets.
The hunter of stop loss....
The DXY dropped as CPI was good. Does that mean they pulled money out of the dollar and into securities??
It is strange that the market already knows inflation is coming. Yet they spike the market two ways on otherwise expected news.
Very interesting. Didn't have a horse in the race but it does look manipulation like.
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Quoting asmadi78
why the faking gold rising????
because market expected much higher than forecast duo to PPI.
good news / bad news ?
you guys need to understand that the market need to grab some liquidity before a greater move to the opposite, and after this huge move down of USD currency, its time to expect it to go higher beyond expected, if it does not break the strong support... put this in mind, before talking about manipulations about moves you do not understand and you don know why they happen
"Manipulation" whining from people who can't read the chart...nothing new on FF.
Quoting OnlineAddict
"Manipulation" whining from people who can't read the chart...nothing new on FF.
look everyone its warren buffett himself.
Funny how they tricked people into buying usd again.Showed some usd strength and where is it now?
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its good news then why market go up?
Quoting Takisd
{quote} look everyone its warren buffett himself.
I make plenty of trading mistakes...but I don't blame it on anything else, but myself!
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} I make plenty of trading mistakes...but I don't blame it on anything else, but myself!
Fair enough ! you cannot be better if you keep blaming manipulation. we gotta understand what is happening right now, especially if I'm a beginner even if there was a manipulation, my ass is so fresh to even realize it.
Quoting Youngandlear
It is only ever a fudge if it goes opposite to your position....
I doubt the US BLS is conspiring against my positions. That would be cool though. Thanks for your post. Did make me chuckle.

CPI has always been a misleading figure and a poor gauge of overall inflation. I wasn't stating anything groundbreaking.

USD weakened as market was positioned for a bigger uptick in it's value.
After the CPI news USD became stronger...the bigboys are taking it advantage now...making GOLD going up to garner as many buyers as possible. Means BOGBOYS like to sell at a higher price in GOLD. WAIT FOR GOLD TO FALL DOWN after NY session
Also...1h gold is completing the PULL BACK at 1740s. Now to come downward to perform its 1st LEG. cross fingered
Quoting ww3361
{quote} I doubt the US BLS is conspiring against my positions. That would be cool though. Thanks for your post. Did make me chuckle. CPI has always been a misleading figure and a poor gauge of overall inflation. I wasn't stating anything groundbreaking. USD weakened as market was positioned for a bigger uptick in it's value.
Thanks for explanation I was looking for someone to explain it, there is gotta be one, can't trust the "market is manipulated that is why I lost my trades".
Quoting BadBunny
{quote} Fair enough ! you cannot be better if you keep blaming manipulation. we gotta understand what is happening right now, especially if I'm a beginner even if there was a manipulation, my ass is so fresh to even realize it.

SELL GOLD NOW....we will discuss later why it falls. You can do it demo if you want
Buy dip opportunity!!!
Quoting OnlineAddict
"Manipulation" whining from people who can't read the chart...nothing new on FF.

lol.. cheap talk!
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I don't understand fundamental analysis this days
Quoting onceamonth
{quote} lol.. cheap talk!
Lol he’s probably sitting on a negative trade claiming he knows so much better than everyone. Yet he has no explanation
Like on the streets there are dumb people and smart people in here. I am dumb on some days and really smart on other days. What matters to me is that although I am dumb on 65% of my trades the smart trades 35% by far makes up for the dumb ones
both are positive and it should be in favor with the dollar but the scenario with Gold is really opposite. Is this just a correction for XAU/USD?
Quoting OnlineAddict
Isn't it beautiful when PA makes sense and everything goes according to plan? EU was strongly bullish below 1900...the time to short will be above 2100.
wooooow, calm down pleas buddy, you are hitting the dirt road!!! it's too high for eurusd, it will fall to 1.1680 and then 1.12 in med term. usd is currently weal just for injecting liquidity but in med term, this liquidity will lead to high growth rate. just wait and see, dollar index will be worth above 99 again. have me that buddy.
maybe gold and eu alredy touch support area today, and big boys alredy predict today news good for usd, so they put pending order at support 1 today.
Quoting sadeghi
{quote} wooooow, calm down pleas buddy, you are hitting the dirt road!!! it's too high for eurusd, it will fall to 1.1680 and then 1.12 in med term. usd is currently weal just for injecting liquidity but in med term, this liquidity will lead to high growth rate. just wait and see, dollar index will be worth above 99 again. have me that buddy.
Yes, USD will go up...but not when everyone is long on it...there will be much better entries, when everyone is panicking and starts shorting it heavily. Like I said...I am waiting for 2050-2150 on EU.
Actual (0.6%) greater than forecast (0.5%). After this data release, I was expecting to see EUR/USD prices going down, but on the contrary there a very strong bullish candle and with a significant volume. Am I missing something. Are investors not happy with 0.6% rise in CPI?
Quoting jsamp
Actual (0.6%) greater than forecast (0.5%). After this data release, I was expecting to see EUR/USD prices going down, but on the contrary there a very strong bullish candle and with a significant volume. Am I missing something. Are investors not happy with 0.6% rise in CPI?
There was a big up tick in PPI last week and Fed officials were making non stop noise about seeing a large but transitory up tick in inflation this year.

The market was braced (and positioned) for a shock reading in the CPI today. The shock didn't happen. The shock would've put pressure on Fed to raise rates sooner than expected. Higher rates hits leverage and risk (as a general rule). It also, as a rule of thumb, makes a currency more attractive. The shock would've made USD go up.

The shock didn't happen. Money printer continues to go brrrrr. Pressure on both Fed and Treasury to tighten their belts isn't yet here. Risk remains bid. USD remains cheap.
profit taking by Bigboys..and a little manipulation
One big problem with usd is thet the Fed members talk too much powell speak 3 to 4 times every week he spoke yesterday and will still speak tomorrow Eurusd direction is not known yet reason beening the the weekly time frame bullish and is setting on a support the daily time frame is bearish setting on a resistance until both timeframe come to agreement there is no certain direction
Gold on daily and weekly time frame is bearish but the weekly time frame need to pull back to at list 382% or beyond before continue to the down side
very strange ?
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just add gold and $ to your wallet
inflation and possibilty of market crash make save haven demand
  • Post #45
  • Quote
  • Edited at 5:20pm Apr 13, 2021 4:21pm | Edited at 5:20pm
Technically, I'd like to see individual figures for the last 12 months. Only 7 are provided, and for example the seasonally adjusted All Items since and including September to March is 2.17%. That's 7 months.

12 months is 2.6%.

So that leaves 5 months (April to August 2020) where the monthly numbers must've been very low or negative? Possible. I can't remember these things.

In any event, the monthly rate is increasing exponentially. Dangerous to extrapolate on the basis of just a few observations, of course, but read into that what you may.

{edit - I now see that on scrolling down, "unadjusted" figures for 12 months are provided, and yes, March and April 2020 were negative, May zero. So there ya go. Cannot rely on unadjusted figures, though.

To quote - "policymakers at the Federal Reserve expect the increase to be temporary. April likely also will show a sharp rise {surprise!}, but then the numbers are supposed to decrease as the worst months of the shutdown fall out of the data comparisons."

The opposite will be true, mathematically, for those of us who know how to calculate a 12 period moving average of a rate. Guessing, but in the vicinity of 4% 12 months.}
Transitory inflation. Fed outlined this would happen after cash injection while supply chains still damaged.
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Quoting trumps
Transitory inflation. Fed outlined this would happen after cash injection while supply chains still damaged. {image}
hmm, edited, I commented on the 2020 trillion $ "injection" and exactly when did the Fed outline (I know of only very recent announcements about Powell's tool) but I'm going from memory and that is non-existent today. Anyway. That's a nice chart of something, thankyou.
Quoting trumps
Transitory inflation. Fed outlined this would happen after cash injection while supply chains still damaged. {image}
Trumps my friend you must be the only trader in the world that believes that blurb ,
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Quoting LloydOz
{quote} hmm, edited, I commented on the 2020 trillion $ "injection" and exactly when did the Fed outline (I know of only very recent announcements about Powell's tool) but I'm going from memory and that is non-existent today. Anyway. That's a nice chart of something, thankyou.
Don't remember precise time/news item, but remember reading on FF Fed news item, Fed expects transitory inflation and will not respond to it, with years end as a rough timeline for normalisation.
Quoting Bones
{quote} Trumps my friend you must be the only trader in the world that believes that blurb , {image}
Nope my friend, I have read comments from other traders in response to you, that don't agree with your view.
As always, time will produce an outcome one way or another.
It's ok for us to disagree, it really is....
Our recent history shows know one knows for certain what markets will do.

Enjoy your day mate
You can't trust the fed ,really no argument
WASHINGTON — Ben S. Bernanke, who told Congress in 2007 that the subprime mortgage crisis was “likely to be contained,” said Thursday that he had failed to recognize flaws in the financial system that amplified the housing downturn and led to an economic disaster.
2 Sept 2010

Bernanke also used the word 'Transitory' about subprime.
Quoting trumps
{quote} Nope my friend, I have read comments from other traders in response to you, that don't agree with your view. As always, time will produce an outcome one way or another. It's ok for us to disagree, it really is.... Our recent history shows know one knows for certain what markets will do. Enjoy your day mate
Maybe you refer to Cable failed monthly ,(on government intervention )
I'm thinking a lot of new people will think they can trade against these patterns from here on in ,
later will realise, not really thats a costly view...
as you say time will tell
Consumer prices rising so the government can offset stimulus. Its wrong that the US can print so much free money while the rest of the world has to pay for it.
Quoting Bones
{quote} Maybe you refer to Cable failed monthly ,I'm thinking a lot of people will think they can trade against these patterns from here on , later will realise not really as you say time will tell
I'm not advising people to trade against any patterns or any specifics.
Just reality that there are no certainties, only probabilities.
I think it will be transitory and have given reasons why (beyond just Fed outlook).
You disagree with your own reasons.

I am short term bullish cable to 3825 area.
I am noticing $ falling faster lately than respondent cable rise, so will see what happens.
Quoting trumps
{quote} I think it will be transitory and have given reasons why (beyond just Fed outlook). .
remind me what they are
its mid month and this is what EU looks like
lets see what next
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Quoting Bones
{quote} remind me what they are
Covid control, vaccine, reopening supply chains, global competition, technology developments, people still cautious about spending (currently saving more than usual), due to pandemic and concerns about future, Fed could respond in any number of ways (we do not know when Fed will actually run out of room, the market will tell us that).
As I've mentioned before, many questions and variables in play make economic forecasting difficult.
Quoting LloydOz
{quote} hmm, edited, I commented on the 2020 trillion $ "injection" and exactly when did the Fed outline (I know of only very recent announcements about Powell's tool) but I'm going from memory and that is non-existent today. Anyway. That's a nice chart of something, thankyou.
Pretty much spells it out again here.
https://www.forexfactory.com/news/10...inflation-data
Quoting trumps
{quote} Covid control, vaccine, reopening supply chains, global competition, technology developments, people still cautious about spending (currently saving more than usual), due to pandemic and concerns about future, Fed could respond in any number of ways (we do not know when Fed will actually run out of room, the market will tell us that). As I've mentioned before, many questions and variables in play make economic forecasting difficult.
there are few variables that's true
no one believe or trusts the CPI ,hence no movement today is how I frame that story
Quoting trumps
{quote} Covid control, vaccine, reopening supply chains, global competition, technology developments, people still cautious about spending (currently saving more than usual), due to pandemic and concerns about future, Fed could respond in any number of ways (we do not know when Fed will actually run out of room, the market will tell us that). As I've mentioned before, many questions and variables in play make economic forecasting difficult.
This is the baseline assumption of the market. The trading opportunities come from this not panning out. Don't forecast as there is no need. Simply observe how the market is positioned and what framework of assumptions are baked into it. Then trade the unwind, when the future throws up surprises.
Quoting ww3361
{quote} There was a big up tick in PPI last week and Fed officials were making non stop noise about seeing a large but transitory up tick in inflation this year. The market was braced (and positioned) for a shock reading in the CPI today. The shock didn't happen. The shock would've put pressure on Fed to raise rates sooner than expected. Higher rates hits leverage and risk (as a general rule). It also, as a rule of thumb, makes a currency more attractive. The shock would've made USD go up. The shock didn't happen. Money printer continues to go brrrrr....
I think this guy puts it pretty well, with the March 2020 figure going low and April 2020's going even lower, given how the economy is recovering (regardless of the pace), it is safe to assume that CPI in the upcoming months will be higher than average, which might seem like a bad thing. Even then the core CPI says it this month, there's barely any changes as most of the inflation came from fuel prices. As for the high PPI, with most of US' imports came from China, the two's PPI could be closely related (read it here https://behavist.com/retailsalesonth...e-usd-dynamics)

I agree with the view that inflation figures now are currently transitory and will be normalised as we near the end of Q4.21 and Q1.22
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