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  • EU’s Barnier: Possibility Of Brexit Trade Agreement Remains

There is always possibility for different outcome. But what is the percentage, 0.1%? ))
Where is Johnson to pop out and say the opposite
possible....next no agrrement....next possible.....better watching mission impossible movie
Quoting ChiForex
Where is Johnson to pop out and say the opposite
LOL
It seems the market is now totally ignoring these comments
  • Post #5
  • Quote
  • Edited at 6:08am Dec 18, 2020 3:58am | Edited at 6:08am
Barnier clearly sweating but is just a Brussels puppet, the EU organ grinder Mrs Merkel will be the deal or no deal maker
Seems UK is not too keen on a DEAL

Could be a Fool's paradise, with the Australian model.

Australian is thousands of miles away, even Australian model will still have a fishing clause
Barnier is sweating? EU is sweating? Johnson should make em sweat? Barnier is a Brussels monkey?


If No Deal Barnier will not lose his job. Van der Leyden will not lose her job. Sentiment in EU is fed up with UK.
The chaos thats on its way .. ensures Johnson will. With in 3 months.
And THE EU is sweating? What planet are you on.?
Monkey was bit strong edited it to puppet
In the real world, doing nicely on gbp futs longs
If No deal over fishing, Boris wont loose his job, the anger will be directed at the EU, the press will drive that nail right in
Quoting RossEdwards
Barnier is sweating? EU is sweating? Johnson should make em sweat? Barnier is a Brussels monkey? If No Deal Barnier will not lose his job. Van der Leyden will not lose her job. Sentiment in EU is fed up with UK. The chaos thats on its way .. ensures Johnson will. With in 3 months. And THE EU is sweating? What planet are you on.?
Just as there are deluded little trumpeters, we have our own deluded bunch too.

Though I do think in a case of no deal, it will be imminent that our UK media will be driven to ramp down EU, apart from possibly Channel 4 news.

Deal or no deal, boris had put himself in a difficult position but is likely to slime his way through with his majority number, no doubt about that.

End of the day, we the peasants commoners, are f'ed either way!
"End of the day, we the peasants commoners, are f'ed either way!"

my sentiments to a T.
Quoting itsonlyme
Monkey was bit strong edited it to puppet In the real world, doing nicely on gbp futs longs If No deal over fishing, Boris wont loose his job, the anger will be directed at the EU, the press will drive that nail right in
You want no deal, you will then have no deal and afterwards blame the EU that you got no deal?
Yes, yes.. UK good, EU bad.
Quoting itsonlyme
... Boris wont loose his job, the anger will be directed at the EU, the press will drive that nail right in
I think you need another edit..
You dont mean drive.. you mean Manipulate.

https://www.vice.com/en/article/5ge5...-british-press
Not at all, you misread the public opinion in the uk on fishing, akin to france does for its farmers
Perhaps someone can explain this regarding the level playing field
In 2018, the UK spent 0.38% of GDP on state aid (excluding railways, and agriculture and fisheries), while France spent 0.79% and Germany 1.45%
So how much will UK be able to claim on the 1st Jan if there is a compensation deal, quite a bit I imagine
Territorial integrity of UK and Sovereignty over that area of Land and Sea is non negotiable.
Some sort of permitting scheme might evolve over fisheries but Ultimate control will reside with UK.

Sovereignty is a Legal matter that supersedes all else including measures of Finance. There is no monetary consideration weighed into a decision concerning Sovereignty.

No Deal is assured if EU does not acknowledge UK Sovereignty over its' own Territory.
Negotiating teams and political masters, please deliver a result soonest so we can all move on, although I have to say there is plenty of evidence that many people will NOT be able to move on. I'm properly sick and tired of the same old rhetoric from a large number of people on FF just shouting at each other and then covering their ears as they shout 'la la la la' after sending a shout. It's not debate at all nor adding something novel. Some people have been reiterating the same thing for over 4 years now and seem to get off on it.
People need to get past the win/lose, bigger/smaller etc etc. Principles do matter and are difficult to round off or compromise on, so it IS a tricky matter to resolve. Would you be statesmanlike and compromise for long-term and then be seen as weak or a loser in the short-term or resist and be seen as strong in the short-term for longer term detriment?
It's possible, despite deadlines, this'll run through into next year even, unfortunately. A deal will probably happen somehow, some time. Both sides need a deal. If BOTH the UK and EU can't sort out a deal when so closely aligned politically and geographically, what the heck does it say about BOTH parties into the future!
If fishing is that important to the UK, why the hell did they sell off the majority of their fishing quotas to foreign ships?

Maybe they are hoping to null those contracts then sell them off again
Quoting itsonlyme
Not at all, you misread the public opinion in the uk on fishing, akin to france does for its farmers Perhaps someone can explain this regarding the level playing field In 2018, the UK spent 0.38% of GDP on state aid (excluding railways, and agriculture and fisheries), while France spent 0.79% and Germany 1.45% So how much will UK be able to claim on the 1st Jan if there is a compensation deal, quite a bit I imagine
Because EU have agreed to rules that state aids are not used for unfair competion.
I don't want to explain to you for what purposes state aids can be used which explains the different percentages.
Quoting digit1288
If fishing is that important to the UK, why the hell did they sell off the majority of their fishing quotas to foreign ships? Maybe they are hoping to null those contracts then sell them off again
It's even better.. British fishing trawlers are also travelling into 'EU' sea to catch fish.
Quoting digit1288
If fishing is that important to the UK, why the hell did they sell off the majority of their fishing quotas to foreign ships? Maybe they are hoping to null those contracts then sell them off again
Its EU fishing policy that made the shift.Theres are 5 super trawlers off uk coast right now ,I doubt any regard to stock.
These type of vessels need banning= environmental disaster

“SUPER TRAWLERS AND MILLIONAIRES
This allocation method led to many low-catching fishermen being forced out of the industry as quota levels fell and they found themselves unable to survive during lean periods. Larger companies could then use their holdings as leverage for loans to buy up this quota, and ownership of the right to fish was consolidated. A stark example of this is the fishery for herring and mackerel. At one time made up of thousands of boats around the coast, over 99 per cent of this valuable fishery – which accounts for almost half of total landings by UK registered vessels — is now caught by only 33 trawlers.3 The value of these boats, and more importantly their share of UK fishing rights, runs to hundreds of millions of pounds.
This increase in costs – the manifestation of the ‘resource rent’ promised by economic theorists – is turning fishing into a millionaires’ club4 and means that the traditionally widespread small business structure of the fishing industry, in which a boat owner/skipper employs a crew on a share (or ‘lay’) system, is gradually shifting to a model of large company ownership with significant involvement from financial institutions. Of the 33 mackerel and herring boats mentioned above, 14 are owned by just five large companies, a share that increases with every boat sale. Two of these companies (and their associated rights to fish) are owned by non-UK multinationals.5”
Quoting Bones
{quote} Its EU fishing policy that made the shift.Theres are 5 super trawlers off uk coast right now ,I doubt any regard to stock. These type of vessels need banning= environmental disaster “SUPER TRAWLERS AND MILLIONAIRES This allocation method led to many low-catching fishermen being forced out of the industry as quota levels fell and they found themselves unable to survive during lean periods. Larger companies could then use their holdings as leverage for loans to buy up this quota, and ownership of the right to fish was consolidated. A stark...
Interesting insight.
Funny isnt it... how things can be framed in folk minds. UK fisheries employ 12000 people.(source:UK Parliament commons Library)
Debinhams went bust in last month. Job Loses? 12000. 6500 having previously been lost.
Would the UK be prepared to jeopardize a trade agreement with its biggest market to save Debinhams?

Quoting Bones
{quote} Its EU fishing policy that made the shift.Theres are 5 super trawlers off uk coast right now ,I doubt any regard to stock. These type of vessels need banning= environmental disaster “SUPER TRAWLERS AND MILLIONAIRES This allocation method led to many low-catching fishermen being forced out of the industry as quota levels fell and they found themselves unable to survive during lean periods. Larger companies could then use their holdings as leverage for loans to buy up this quota, and ownership of the right to fish was consolidated. A stark...
Excellent post. 100% for unveiling a small corner of the commercial realities of this BS flagwaving spat
Now go research just a little this further.. and then youll understand why I call all this flagwaving BS..
Quoting RossEdwards
Funny isnt it... how things can be framed in folk minds. UK fisheries employ 12000 people.(source:UK Parliament commons Library) Debinhams went bust in last month. Job Loses? 12000. 6500 having previously been lost. Would the UK be prepared to jeopardize a trade agreement with its biggest market to save Debinhams? {quote} Excellent post. 100% for unveiling a small corner of the commercial realities of this BS flagwaving spat Now go research just a little this further.. and then youll understand why I call al
l this flagwaving BS..
Ive researched it
where I thought before we could allow a long transition now I realise we need our own fish policy.
Theres no benefit whatsoever in the mega fishing boats,I would ban all usage in our water
EU quota system has failed dismally
https://www.tradingview.com/x/E2ckXA9z/

i'm ready for a no deal
But today is the deadline ?
the market is ready for a sell off of both both EU and GU.... this has gotton too far
  • Post #25
  • Quote
  • Edited at 3:50pm Dec 18, 2020 3:01pm | Edited at 3:50pm
Quoting c0ldsun
{quote} Because EU have agreed to rules that state aids are not used for unfair competion. I don't want to explain to you for what purposes state aids can be used which explains the different percentages.
You need to realize that 90% of folk commenting on these threads have absolutely no professional background in any professional financial or analytical role.. just Google heroes and keyboard warriors. Some really good and profitable traders but most are idiots. Many subject to partisan bias and with neither the economic background or socio-political understanding of the nature of UK Conservative Govs bizaare definition of sovereignty which drives its negotiation position and ignores the obligation of government to pursue the National Interest rather than narrow political ideology.
Trying to expect folk to understand the issues involved in the issue of " the Level Playing field" issue is a complete wast of time. As is much debate on these threads.
  • Post #26
  • Quote
  • Edited at 4:38pm Dec 18, 2020 4:17pm | Edited at 4:38pm
And on we go, thought just for a second an EU expert was going to explain those state subsidies differences and why there is no seepage across chinese walls. Once thats done we can move onto whether the EU bailout and the ECB buying government bonds is a state subsidy. But one thing at a time. Whether the EU rules say its legal is irrelavent, only point that matters is its a subsidy which is a state subsidy however its dressed up.
Quoting itsonlyme
And on we go, thought just for a second an EU expert was going to explain those state subsidies differences and why there is no seepage across chinese walls. Once thats done we can move onto whether the EU bailout and the ECB buying government bonds is a state subsidy. But one thing at a time. Whether the EU rules say its legal is irrelavent, only point that matters is its a subsidy which is a state subsidy however its dressed up.
OK heres a clarification for you..
State aid is defined as an advantage in any form whatsoever conferred on a selective basis to undertakings by national public authorities. Therefore, subsidies granted to individuals or general measures open to all enterprises are not covered by this prohibition and do not constitute State aid (examples include general taxation measures or employment legislation).
To be State aid, a measure needs to have these features:
there has been an intervention by the State or through State resources which can take a variety of forms (e.g. grants, interest and tax reliefs, guarantees, government holdings of all or part of a company, or providing goods and services on preferential terms, etc.);
the intervention gives the recipient an advantage on a selective basis, for example to specific companies or industry sectors, or to companies located in specific regions
competition has been or may be distorted;
the intervention is likely to affect trade between Member States.
Despite the general prohibition of State aid, in some circumstances government interventions is necessary for a well-functioning and equitable economy. Therefore, the Treaty leaves room for a number of policy objectives for which State aid can be considered compatible. The legislation stipulates these exemptions. The laws are regularly reviewed to improve their efficiency and to respond to the European Councils' calls for less but better targeted State aid to boost the European economy. The Commission adopts new legislation is adopted in close cooperation with the Member States.
Where do you come up with this stuff? EU nations are sovereign. If they want to implement subsidies they can. When it becomes a problem is where it distorts competition.

Now with respect, WTF you couldnt research that yourself and instead of expecting someone else to do the work for you.

Detailed records of all cases here https://ec.europa.eu/competition/sta...ce_aid_en.html
Thank you for taking the time to reply and link RossEdwards. Afraid neither satisfies me there is no seepage across Chinese walls but this will all come to light at the LPF arbitration committee if there is a deal
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  • Posted: Dec 18, 2020 3:11am
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    Category: Medium Impact Breaking News
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