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  • EURGBP False Break Could Offer Buying Opportunity

    From dailypriceaction.com

    The EURGBP hasn’t done much in the last few weeks. At least in terms of quality swing trading opportunities. However, last week’s break below trend line support and subsequent close back above it looks interesting. Notice how EURGBP closed below the trend line from the year-to-date low on July 7th. But sellers didn’t remain in control for long. EURGBP has erased everything that was lost with this week’s rally. Furthermore, the pair has closed back above the trend line in question. And if we extend a trend line from the year-to-date high, we get a multi-month wedge pattern. That recent false break below ... (full story)

"Experts" telling you to buy = sell! Sell a lot and then sell some more. Honestly, reading this I was laughing - trendlines, wedges? Are you kidding me? That stuff doesn't work, it never has worked and it never will work. It's designing to separate newbie traders from their money as quickly as possible.
Quoting gravitist
"Experts" telling you to buy = sell! Sell a lot and then sell some more. Honestly, reading this I was laughing - trendlines, wedges? Are you kidding me? That stuff doesn't work, it never has worked and it never will work. It's designing to separate newbie traders from their money as quickly as possible.
lol, you nailed it. Been short since this morning TP .8990.
Maybe it is not false break and it was not right trend line. One way to improve our chance is to examine our trend line with the same slope in other parts of recent chart to see if our candidate trend line was effective before.
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Quoting Albertini
Maybe it is not false break and it was not right trend line. One way to improve our chance is to examine our trend line with the same slope in other parts of recent chart to see if our candidate trend line was effective before. {image}
I cant see a single candle man. Price and time is the only real time info you have to work with. What are the candles telling you? Everyone focuses on some kind of indicator thats derived from time and price....but rarely price and time its self...
Quoting gravitist
"Experts" telling you to buy = sell! Sell a lot and then sell some more. Honestly, reading this I was laughing - trendlines, wedges? Are you kidding me? That stuff doesn't work, it never has worked and it never will work. It's designing to separate newbie traders from their money as quickly as possible.
100%!
Look at the years people have been here and still looking at triangles and lines. If you spent 1-2 years and still nothing.... that should tell you something.
Quoting JustBreathe
{quote} I cant see a single candle man. Price and time is the only real time info you have to work with. What are the candles telling you? Everyone focuses on some kind of indicator thats derived from time and price....but rarely price and time its self...
Indicators can be useful too if we know how to use them. After all they will have wrong signals as trend lines have false breaks right? Indeed trend lines are indicators based on a mathematical approach like indicators. Based on trend lines we assume that if price increased by 1 percent in 3 days it should increase 2 percent in 6 days. Isn't it an indicator?
Quoting Albertini
{quote} Indicators can be useful too if we know how to use them. After all they will have wrong signals as trend lines have false breaks right? Indeed trend lines are indicators based on a mathematical approach like indicators. Based on trend lines we assume that if price increased by 1 percent in 3 days it should increase 2 percent in 6 days. Isn't it an indicator?
% change per day is based on daily close price vs the next day. Trend line as a tool is very much like economists: First you predict what will happen when the price gets to the trend line/fib etc. and then you explain why it didnt work. Or why it went a past it and came back, or some other infinite scenario. Sure sometimes it will bounce.
There is no universal accepted way of drawing them, some use wicks, some use bodies, some slice through the chart at random angles. Of course at one point someones indicator will be right, thats just a probability out of thousands of traders using indicators.
Majority of traders are hobby traders, even if they claim to be serious.
So I ask you, why are you drawing a trendline? what is your objective?
Quoting JustBreathe
{quote} % change per day is based on daily close price vs the next day. Trend line as a tool is very much like economists: First you predict what will happen when the price gets to the trend line/fib etc. and then you explain why it didnt work. Or why it went a past it and came back, or some other infinite scenario. Sure sometimes it will bounce. There is no universal accepted way of drawing them, some use wicks, some use bodies, some slice through the chart at random angles. Of course at one point someones indicator will be right, thats just a...
Trend line for me is a technical tool to be used with other confirmations to increase my chance of wining. Sometimes third turning point is exactly on a trend line drawn from past turning points. Sometimes a turning point is exactly on a specific moving average that price turned in the past. Why is that? I don't think there is sure answer for that, but i don't like the idea that only simple tools that do least mathematical function on price like trend lines are right tools. How about an exponential moving average that its calculation can be complicated and you hardly can imagine it by just looking at chart without drawing it?Are they useless? I don't think so.
Quoting Albertini
{quote} Trend line for me is a technical tool to be used with other confirmations to increase my chance of wining. Sometimes third turning point is exactly on a trend line drawn from past turning points. Sometimes a turning point is exactly on a specific moving average that price turned in the past. Why is that? I don't think there is sure answer for that, but i don't like the idea that only simple tools that do least mathematical function on price like trend lines are right tools. How about an exponential moving average that its calculation can...
At any point of time the price/candle "seems" to be touching/reacting from some type of MA or EMA. It might not be touching 50 but its touching 100 or 20 etc. Same for other indicators, at any point of time price "seems" to react to that indicator. That is just a probability of having stuff on your chart and the price crossing it or bouncing from there.
This is the trap most people go down. You look for the "ideal" or "perfect" combinations and parameters for these indicators that will make you a winner.
Think about it abstractly, you drew some line on a chart and expect the price to react to it, how crazy does that sound? The indicator will work only if majority of the parties involved in the market are looking at it too, and buying or selling at the same point as you on the same indicator at the same time.

The other fault of most traders is we think we know who the market is and what its intentions are. Not all parties are scalping for pips. Some are just using FX to convert currency because they operate in different countries, they will buy or sell when needed because the business needs to keep running. They are not waiting for MA crossover or trend line bounce. Think about how many other parties exist and what could their intentions be?

All indicators are mathematically tied to price and/or time. They will cross paths sooner or later, its in the math. The creators of these indicators decided when this math formula spits out a line and that line is touched by the price, it should bounce. How ludicrous is this premise ? There is a reason 80% of traders are loosing, and everyone is full of indicators. The very few people who use them and are profitable and live off profits will tell you they can trade without them. They may use them out of habbit or as an "added" confluence not the main driver
Quoting JustBreathe
{quote} At any point of time the price/candle "seems" to be touching/reacting from some type of MA or EMA. It might not be touching 50 but its touching 100 or 20 etc. Same for other indicators, at any point of time price "seems" to react to that indicator. That is just a probability of having stuff on your chart and the price crossing it or bouncing from there. This is the trap most people go down. You look for the "ideal" or "perfect" combinations and parameters for these indicators that will make you a winner....
I don't see the difference. All weakness you are mentioning about indicators is true for trend lines too. If you are expecting a moving average with fixed period should work well always you will be disappointment. How you draw a trend line? do you believe a specific slope should always work for you or you are letting market decide for that. I don't believe in ma 20 or 50 or 200. I find the period by trial and error to see what is market behavior as you draw trend line as market force it for you not predefined slope.
Quoting Albertini
{quote} I don't see the difference. All weakness you are mentioning about indicators is true for trend lines too. If you are expecting a moving average with fixed period should work well always you will be disappointment. How you draw a trend line? do you believe a specific slope should always work for you or you are letting market decide for that. I don't believe in ma 20 or 50 or 200. I find the period by trial and error to see what is market behavior as you draw trend line as market force it for you not predefined slope.
Quoting Albertini
{quote} I don't see the difference. All weakness you are mentioning about indicators is true for trend lines too. If you are expecting a moving average with fixed period should work well always you will be disappointment. How you draw a trend line? do you believe a specific slope should always work for you or you are letting market decide for that. I don't believe in ma 20 or 50 or 200. I find the period by trial and error to see what is market behavior as you draw trend line as market force it for you not predefined slope.
Bingo, that's the reason trendlines and other indicators are a trap. If you are drawing a trendline to identify a trend, then you know the trend before you draw it lol. The a trend is when price is making higher highs and higher lows and lower highs and lower lows. For that you dont need a trendline. How candles form and how price moves is the raw view. Why look at using a trendline "lens". Why not just look at it for what it is. ?
Like I said, most people just love to talk about this stuff, and debate for years. Trading is a business that needs a plan, and action taken with clear goals and parameters. People here that have been trading for 4-10years plus are just the product of chasing their own tail with trendlines, indicators, ema, all of that stuff.
Looking at the chart, medium to longterm target is 8200-8500...longs? Where???
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
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Quoting gravitist
"Experts" telling you to buy = sell! Sell a lot and then sell some more. Honestly, reading this I was laughing - trendlines, wedges? Are you kidding me? That stuff doesn't work, it never has worked and it never will work. It's designing to separate newbie traders from their money as quickly as possible.
in this thread masters only use trend lines.

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=699860
By looking at the price I only see falling peaks since mid Mar-2020 - where is this bullish buying trend you are referring to?
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It is helpful to view buying and selling activity as forces.For example,if price is currently above yesterday s close,what does that tell you?If price breaks above or below the previous week's high or low,what does that tell you? Having some basic reference points-or areas,if you wish- are helpful guides to indicate which force is in control.Most add on studies are,as Just B indicates,a complete waste of your limited energy.
For this time, the analysis above is correct. EURGBP is still on the LONG side.
Follow the flow of water in a stream
For smart guys the price keeps going up. Is it really that a trend line doesn't work ??? Look at GBP / CAD, JPY ...
"The freedom of the other extends mine to infinity"
take a look EURCHF, it will go up following EURGBP.. "Sentiment is rock"
Follow the flow of water in a stream
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  • Posted: Jul 16, 2020 4:53pm
  • Submitted by:
     dailypa
    Category: Technical Analysis
    Comments: 18  /  Views: 8,229