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  • UK eyes billion pound boost from Australia, New Zealand trade deals

    From reuters.com

    Britain said its exports could increase by a billion pounds as a result of the trade deals it is seeking from Australia and New Zealand, setting out its negotiating objectives on Wednesday ahead of the start of formal talks. Australia and New Zealand are among Britain’s top priorities for trade talks, alongside the United States, the European Union and Japan, as it looks to define an independent trade policy after leaving the EU in January. “Ambitious, wide-ranging free trade agreements with old friends like Australia and New Zealand are a powerful way for us ... to make good on the promise of Brexit,” trade ... (full story)

Both Australia and New Zealand are eyeing boost from another country apart from UK and US, guess which one that would be.

Fire extinguishers to Australia, hair/fur clipper to New Zealand??? No offence to both countries but UK has very little to offer in terms of export.

Recycling nothing substantial, this will be bad for economy in the days to come.
Well, we like Guinness...
Quoting NotBoris
Both Australia and New Zealand are eyeing boost from another country apart from UK and US, guess which one that would be. Fire extinguishers to Australia, hair/fur clipper to New Zealand??? No offence to both countries but UK has very little to offer in terms of export. Recycling nothing substantial, this will be bad for economy in the days to come.
...and all three countries pissed off China, interfering with internal affairs. with China they have no chance, if anything just minimum.

NZ has only 4.5 million population . London is double size of it.
Wonder how many kiwis remember how UK treated us when they joined EC
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just for perspective: UK export in 2018 for products is 465 billion billion usd and services are 352 billion usd.
In the same year Uk exported 5.8billion usd (goods + services) to Australia ( 1.2% of all export) and 1.28 billion of usd to NZ ( 0.28% of all export). So you see 1 billion is peanuts. in 2018 Uk has 3.07 billion export to Belorus. While export to Germany( EU) , 93 billion, Netherlands (Eu), 50 billion, Frnacne (eu) 38 billion, Belgium (Eu) 36billion.
One billion pounds, ONE, this must be a joke.
NZ and Australia should buy way more from the UK, one billion pound is actually an insult.
These 2 countries are Commonwealth countries, so new trade is nothing but hoax.

Are they not trading partners already, and if the news is meant to scare EU to jumpstart negotiations, the sum touted is meagre.

This is not substantial enough
Before everyone gets drawn into another tired, prejudiced EU/Brexit perspective debate on this, trade deals between sovereign nations, or blocs, tend to be positive. Yes, in terms of size it's small but it carries significance with regard to a new global outward-looking UK dynamic that chimes with the UK's natural instinct, desire and need to trade.

Trade deals will include one with the EU at some point, whether this year or further away. No one is kidding themselves that WTO with EU will be positive but it's also not the end. It doesn't mean trade stops altogether with the EU, WTO or not. The size of the numbers will change.

Using historical comparisons to model the future has its limits. We all know the future is difficult to predict on BOTH axes of 'what?' and 'when?'.

The analogy is that the UK has made a choice not to be part of a lumbering oil-tanker, with its protectionist, slow-moving outlook but to set sail as a smaller cargo ship, faster, more nimble and adaptable and able to trade the products and services of tomorrow.
This is classic miss information from Tory party to deflect from real issues. They think EU don't know this already....
You need money to trade, Australia & New Zealand are on the bones of their ass as is the UK. Trading is going to be very slow for quite a while.
£1B? That's a laugh. We spent that in 8 weeks on baked beans and loo rolls.
All this is long known. Figures quoted coincide broadly with our analysis from 2016-2017. Subsequent updates change nothing except to a more negative outlook as a result of the current CV19 crisis, and the deteriorating SinoUS trade relationship and the increasingly protectionist policies of the US. These do seriously complicate thing furthe.. and negatively for UK.. The fundamental fact that global trade can’t come close to replacing the value of the EU Single Market remains. The only issue is by how much it will stunt the UK economy.
Quoting RossEdwards
All this is long known. Figures quoted coincide broadly with our analysis from 2016-2017. Subsequent updates change nothing except to a more negative outlook as a result of the current CV19 crisis, and the deteriorating SinoUS trade relationship and the increasingly protectionist policies of the US. These do seriously complicate thing furthe.. and negatively for UK.. The fundamental fact that global trade can’t come close to replacing the value of the EU Single Market remains. The only issue is by how much it will stunt the UK economy.
Ross, I agree with nearly all you state and I always look forward to your input, hence the thumbs-up, apart from "global trade can’t come close to replacing the value of the EU Single Market". By default that means that you expect ALL EU/UK trade will stop. This seems to be a perpetual fallacy pushed by those keen to make sweeping statements (barkie, for one) and that's not at all in keeping with your analytical, focused nature. You go on to make a better qualifying statement in the ultimate sentence. Again, this all depends on what time-line context is chosen as well.
I knew Ross would be here with this. Relax Ross, you'll soon be part of the EU again but I look forward with anticipated hilarity as to how you are going to fit Scotland's budget deficit into EU policy.
Quoting Blessed-man
These 2 countries are Commonwealth countries, so new trade is nothing but hoax. Are they not trading partners already, and if the news is meant to scare EU to jumpstart negotiations, the sum touted is meagre. This is not substantial enough
Yes the figure of £1B is tiny compared to our current value of exports to the EU of £291B (2018).
  • Post #16
  • Quote
  • Edited at 1:13pm Jun 17, 2020 12:27pm | Edited at 1:13pm
Quoting DaJoWaBa
{quote} Ross, I agree with nearly all you state and I always look forward to your input, hence the thumbs-up, apart from "global trade can’t come close to replacing the value of the EU Single Market". By default that means that you expect ALL EU/UK trade will stop. ..
Thanks for kind words.
But you have twice now conflated my comments into completely unjustified BS
(first in relation to CAP/Amish???? and now here.????
You kjnow perfectly well Im not suggesting or expecting ALL EU/UK trade to stop.
Ive been in this business for nearly 2 decades. So why are you suggesting something you know to be untrue?
..not like you.
Quoting RossEdwards
{quote} Thanks for kind words. But you have twice now conflated my comments into completely unjustified BS (first in relation to CAP/Amish???? and now here.???? You kjnow perfectly well Im not suggesting or expecting ALL EU/UK trade to stop. Ive been in this business for nearly 2 decades. So why are you suggesting something you know to be untrue?
Whoa! Ross, I am not having a go at you, merely hoping that in your response you will clarify your meaning, as you have now done, which was my aim. It's not with the intention of goading you and certainly not at all personal, merely a playful approach to induce clarification. You may have conjured an image in your mind of me being angry or agitated but that would be wrong: it was light-touch questioning.

There are some on FF that take statements too literally and like to make sweeping generalised comments as a result. I wish to prevent the tired old prejudiced shouting that is too commonplace and I thought my intervention might help nip that in the bud. I note one person has already had a go at you today for your opinions over the EU. Let me be clear, we will not agree on everything but I am not the sort to have a problem with others having very different views to me. I welcome educated, knowledgeable debate and people giving me cause to change my opinions: there are few times your entries will escape my thumbs-up even if I don't agree with you. Let's call it mature emotional intelligence.
  • Post #18
  • Quote
  • Edited at 4:52pm Jun 17, 2020 4:39pm | Edited at 4:52pm
Quoting RossEdwards
All this is long known. Figures quoted coincide broadly with our analysis from 2016-2017. Subsequent updates change nothing except to a more negative outlook as a result of the current CV19 crisis, and the deteriorating SinoUS trade relationship and the increasingly protectionist policies of the US. These do seriously complicate thing furthe.. and negatively for UK.. The fundamental fact that global trade can’t come close to replacing the value of the EU Single Market remains. The only issue is by how much it will stunt the UK economy.
So you're stating that "global trade can't come close to replacing the value of the EU single market" for the UK? Um, the UK is only 'exporting' 44% of their goods to the EU and some of that is going out of the UK to ports to be shipped out of the EU so the 44% number is high.
Under the WTO it would likely cost less to pay the tariffs on a few products than to pay the billions in fees each year to the EU for their depression of freedom and over reach if there is no trade agreement. The EU's worldwide percentage of exports have been dropping each year so it's not like the EU is a growing entity.
The bureaucracy of the EU has been increasing exponentially. I asked a friend of mine why he left London and the UK/EU. He said he knew it was time to go when they started weighing his garbage. And then there's the thing about electric tea kettles being declared illegal at the whim of a pen. The EU's overreach is daily.

Each year, as of 2017, EU countries 'export' about 67 billion pounds more to the UK than the UK sells to the EU. To help you understand this...this means the UK buys 67 billion pounds more from EU countries than the UK buys from EU countries. The UK can negotiate from a position of strength and should just walk away. The fact that you and Boris (aka NotBoris) think the trade deals with NZ and A are a bad idea is proof your Globalist funders are scared of losing a huge part of their control base and economy when the UK is no longer licking the EU's boots.

Consider that the slow walk by the UK on a trade deal with the EU is ONLY strengthening the UK position because it is already, obviously, negotiating and signing trade deals with other countries. This means that the UK is already replacing your trade and you have already lost

We ALL see through you and your propaganda against anything that gets in the way of your globalist masters. You really should ask for a pay raise because I hear they pay well for failure.
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  • Posted: Jun 17, 2020 5:32am
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     Newsstand
    Category: Fundamental Analysis
    Comments: 18  /  Views: 5,843